EX TC Don- Inland near Baffin Bay "Don Is Dead"
Posted: Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:01 am
Blob in Atlantic just got an invest - current tracking certainly looks interesting 
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EX TC Don- Inland near Baffin Bay "Don Is Dead"
Page 1 of 15
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:03 am
Wonder what our in-house mets think? Hummm....
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:20 am
From Accuweather:
The only other feature we are concerned about is the tropical wave near 55 west, moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day in the central Atlantic. Thunderstorms have flared up on each of the past few days, but have dissipated during the nighttime. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development at this time, but as this feature moves into the Caribbean Sea this weekend, upper-level winds may become more favorable for tropical development.
This wave will move through the Leeward Islands tonight, producing some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall in the area. The wave will continue moving westward this weekend, impacting Puerto Rico and Hispaniola by early next week. Beyond that, there is a wide variety of ideas, including full tropical development east of the Bahamas by next Wednesday. The latest model runs are showing less support for development, a slower movement, and a track farther south. The key to what evolves out of this system is the strength of the Bermuda high pressure area nosing westward across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If the Bermuda high is strong, the system will move more westward and remain a strong but disorganized tropical wave. The upper-level ridge causing the heat wave over the eastern and central U.S. is projected to move west, allowing a weak upper-level trough to become established along or off the East Coast early next week. This could create a weakness in the Bermuda ridge. This weakness would help draw the system more to the northwest, then north, during Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. That scenario would favor organization and intensification. Therefore, there is no clear-cut idea on this system for next week at this time, but we will be making daily updates on the forecast.
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Fri Jul 22, 2011 12:55 pm
2 PM Update....still at 20%
. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Fri Jul 22, 2011 3:06 pm
Here we go.....Brownsville AFD:
LOOKING TOWARDS THE TROPICS NHC EXPECTS
A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEX BY NEXT THURS EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
ON FRI. AT THIS TIME THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN TO
THE TX COASTLINE NEXT WEEKEND. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OUTLOOKS AND DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC
CONCERNING THE PROGRESS THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE TROPICS NHC EXPECTS
A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEX BY NEXT THURS EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
ON FRI. AT THIS TIME THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN TO
THE TX COASTLINE NEXT WEEKEND. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OUTLOOKS AND DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC
CONCERNING THE PROGRESS THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Fri Jul 22, 2011 6:10 pm
The slower it develops the higher the chance it may end up in the Gulf of Mexico.
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Fri Jul 22, 2011 6:49 pm
Its now at 30% and orange.
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Fri Jul 22, 2011 7:26 pm
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 590 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
1. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 590 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
1. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:15 am
I don't see much right now and convection is really fading. Shear is a huge problem right now and it is pretty obvious. Both Sat. maps and shear maps show a very hostile environment. The good thing about that though is less development will lead to a more westward track that could bring increase chances of rain for us. Development down the road could be possible but I don't see that until it gets closer to the Gulf. Factors that will determine the track will be the intensity of 90L, speed, intensity of the ridge, and intensity of the trough. A lot of factors are in play right now and I caution everyone to not put to much stock in any models right now. The lack of a LLC plus the multiple variables have created a lot of swings in the models. Everyone in the gulf should keep track of this system as everyone is at risk. The potential is there for a developing system but we have seen multiple times that storms don't always take advantage of that. Even though SHIPS still show a hurricane (or close to it) this is all just speculation at this point. Lets see what the next couple of days bring us (hopefully some rain).
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:17 am
I agree - I think will be a tough go for the next several days. There's too much low level shear in the Caribbean. That, coupled with land interaction as it moves WNW, will keep chances for any development really low. If it can survive and make it into the Gulf, then chances for development will increase. It looks like mid-to-late next week when things could get more interesting.
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 12:14 pm
Didn't know where to put this, but quick question.
There seems to be some convection in the gulf, below Florida.
Just looked a little suspicious, anything worth watching?
I'm driving back, from Ft worth and don't have a good sat. view.
Thanks
There seems to be some convection in the gulf, below Florida.
Just looked a little suspicious, anything worth watching?
I'm driving back, from Ft worth and don't have a good sat. view.
Thanks
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:10 pm
I'd like to remind everyone that now is the time to get your hurricane supplies for the season. 90L is messing about, and it is currently forcasted to be a GOM resident sometime early next week. A lot is to consider, as there are a few scenarios. 90L will not be able to really gets it act together, if at all, until it enters the western Caribbean and Eastern Gulf. Models want to carry whatever it will be into Northern Mexico, or South Texas. Due to all of the variables, everyone in the GOM region should pay attention. This is especially true for all Residents of Texas and the Northern Gulf States.
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 7:07 pm
I'd put it along 68W as of 6PM CDT, maybe 16N, but there is definitely no LLC yet. Just a wave axis. Convection is expanding and outflow improving. Note that 850mb winds in its immediate path increase to 25-30 kts, or more. Not good for near-term development, but those winds forecast to drop to 15 kts near the Yucatan. That is good for low-level convergence. GFS and Euro move the ridge over Texas east to the Carolinas by Thursday, opening up the western Gulf for a northerly turn toward TX if it does develop, or even if it doesn't develop.
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 8:02 pm
wxman could we have an undeveloped system that could possibly bring us rain next weekend? Just curious. You know I would rather have rain then a tropical/hurricane system.wxman57 wrote:I'd put it along 68W as of 6PM CDT, maybe 16N, but there is definitely no LLC yet. Just a wave axis. Convection is expanding and outflow improving. Note that 850mb winds in its immediate path increase to 25-30 kts, or more. Not good for near-term development, but those winds forecast to drop to 15 kts near the Yucatan. That is good for low-level convergence. GFS and Euro move the ridge over Texas east to the Carolinas by Thursday, opening up the western Gulf for a northerly turn toward TX if it does develop, or even if it doesn't develop.
How's the bike riding this year?
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 8:17 pm
I agree....
It's not a TS/Hurricane I worry about as much as not having electricity for a long period of time.
Especially in this heat.
And unlike Ike, we probably won't be getting a cool front afterwards.
It's not a TS/Hurricane I worry about as much as not having electricity for a long period of time.
Especially in this heat.
And unlike Ike, we probably won't be getting a cool front afterwards.
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 9:03 pm
Sure, an undeveloped system could. However, I think the chances of this disturbance developing in the Gulf may be better than 50%. And if it does develop, then it would likely become a hurricane before landfall.ticka1 wrote:wxman could we have an undeveloped system that could possibly bring us rain next weekend? Just curious. You know I would rather have rain then a tropical/hurricane system.wxman57 wrote:I'd put it along 68W as of 6PM CDT, maybe 16N, but there is definitely no LLC yet. Just a wave axis. Convection is expanding and outflow improving. Note that 850mb winds in its immediate path increase to 25-30 kts, or more. Not good for near-term development, but those winds forecast to drop to 15 kts near the Yucatan. That is good for low-level convergence. GFS and Euro move the ridge over Texas east to the Carolinas by Thursday, opening up the western Gulf for a northerly turn toward TX if it does develop, or even if it doesn't develop.
How's the bike riding this year?
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 10:07 pm
wxman57 wrote:Sure, an undeveloped system could. However, I think the chances of this disturbance developing in the Gulf may be better than 50%. And if it does develop, then it would likely become a hurricane before landfall.
Nooooo!!!!!!! My house is being remodeled after the fire in May, so, no hurricanes or tropical storms here until my house is finished!!!! Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 8:48 am
Ed Mahmoud wrote:I was glass one eight optimistic, but if WxMan57 thinks this has a chance, I have to go glass three sixteenths optimistic.
Wish there was a reliable global that developed it, however...
does it look like this system could possibly be heading to the upper texas coast later this week?
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 9:58 am
Hopefully we do get some rain out of this. Was lookin like more of a south texas threat. A tad weaker of a ridge could fix that though. Hopefully no wind!
Re: 90L - GOM Bound?
Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 12:08 pm
I don't think it will do too much considering how it looks today with not too much convection and it's been just stretched out and sheared. Maybe it will look better later?