EX TC Don- Inland near Baffin Bay "Don Is Dead"

[gocuse22]

Still expecting 1-2 inches of rain , 3-5 isolated

[srainhoutx]

Convection firing over the center and RECON data is suggesting a possible center relocation a bit further S under the deep convective tower...

[Ptarmigan]

Convection firing over the center and RECON data is suggesting a possible center relocation a bit further S under the deep convective tower...

Bad for us, I think, stronger and further South, with perhaps more concentrated rain bands.

But its only July.


-80ºC cloud tops, not something you see everyday in the Gulf.

Why don't we see -80ºC cloud tops in the Gulf of Mexico. I am sure Katrina, Rita, and Ike had them. I noticed that Don is getting larger.

[Ptarmigan]

Don is the 4th storm of the season and it is only July. That last time that happened was in 2008 with Dolly and in 2005 with Dennis.

[srainhoutx]

VVortex message from NOAA WP-3 Orion (Kermit)

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 22:25Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 21:53Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°13'N 91°26'W (24.2167N 91.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 397 miles (639 km) to the ESE (107°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 136° at 36kts (From the SE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,566m (8,419ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,549m (8,363ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 21:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 750mb

[srainhoutx]

Nice image of overshooting tops near the center...

[djmike]

KFDM-TV Live web stream with Greg Bostwick at 7:00p.m. about TS Don and what we can expect this hurricane season.

Tonight at 7:00p.m. Greg Bostwick and Lance Edwards will answer your questions on Facebook about the 2011 Hurricane Season.

Tropical Storm Don looks like it will miss SETX, but we will show off our new weather tools and talk about the rest of the tropical season.



Read more: http://www.kfdm.com/articles/bostwick-4 ... z1TRknSKBO

[Andrew]

We have a system with pressures that are dropping pretty fast. I don't want to mention RI yet but we are looking at a storm that is intensifying pretty fast. Hurricane watches may be issued pretty soon and when you have a system drop pressure like this (especially so fast) that translates to a wider field of moisture as it expands and that should enhance our chances that much more. Right now a NW track or jog seems to be happening even with the center relocation. I don't know why we are getting all these depressing comments when on any microwave you can clearly see a wide field of moisture heading our way which will AT LEAST produce widely scattered storms. Be careful what you ask for.

[srainhoutx]

995.4mb suggested by AF C130 RECON...

[srainhoutx]

NOAA vortex message (remember we have two aircraft sampling Don)...

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 00:00Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 23:12Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°24'N 91°48'W (24.4N 91.8W)
B. Center Fix Location: 371 miles (597 km) to the ESE (107°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 232° at 35kts (From the SW at ~ 40.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the W (275°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,440m (8,005ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,429m (7,969ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 750mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WINDS AND MAX OUTBOUND FL WINDS 39KT N QUAD 2337Z

[biggerbyte]

Hey Andrew,

I think the point being made about Don, is that the further away he moves, the less impact on our weather here locally. That is a given, anyway. That is not nessasarily saying that we will have no impact at all, although in some cases that can be true. Again, a given, and I know you know all that. Having said that, what we read in the forecast by various people/pros, vs. what we see on radar and satellite are not exactly the same. The newbies only know what they read, and what they are told. It gets depressing for those folks that had forecasts that favor big rains for their area, only to have those hopes shattered by what they are hearing now.
The truth is, Don is a trooper that might be unpredictable. He somehow beats the odds. However, conditions surrounding him are not exactly prime, and the western Gulf will be even more of a problem. I've seen stranger things. Here is to hoping he continues to look good, and the models are too far south with landfall.

[michmich]

Can I just say as a lurker....I am completely confused!

[Andrew]

Can I just say as a lurker....I am completely confused!

What are you confused on?

And welcome to the board.

[srainhoutx]

00Z Water Vapor imagery. And for the record, I've not seen any of our folks calling this a 'drought buster' or a 'big rain maker' for SE TX...

[michmich]

Can I just say as a lurker....I am completely confused!

What are you confused on?

And welcome to the board.

Thanks, Andrew...I've actually been around for a few years....I just don't have the knowledge and expertise so I don't post much.

Are we going to get rain or not?!?!

[tireman4]

Can I just say as a lurker....I am completely confused!

Goodevening Confused, I am Tireman...Ha ha. I had to say that.

HGX's take on things as they stand RIGHT now...

AS OF NOW...TROPICAL STORM DON WILL HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE
REGION. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE THREAT FOR FAR OUTER RAIN BANDS
(WITH EMBEDDED STORMS) IS MODERATE. THUS...00Z TAF PACKAGE REFLECTS
CONTINUED PHILOSOPHY OF EARLY MORNING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS
RIDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. DON`S TRACK HAS
IT REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AS TO NOT PREVAIL AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
RATHER VC WITH TEMPOS TO COMMUNICATE THE MODERATE PROBABILITY/CONFIDENCE
OF ANY MID-LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON FAR OUTER BANDS. IF
DON DOES TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST THAN NORTH...THAN FUTURE PACKAGES
WILL TAPER OFF THE THUNDER THREAT AND/OR END CONVECTION EARLIER IN
THE DAY. PERIODS OF INTERMITTENT MVFR DECKS WILL OCCUR DURING PERIODS
OF PASSING RAIN/STORMS. DUE TO TIGHTER NORTHEASTERN PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN THE COAST TOWARDS DON...TOMORROW`S WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST AND BECOME MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE. 31

[Andrew]

Can I just say as a lurker....I am completely confused!

What are you confused on?

And welcome to the board.

Thanks, Andrew...I've actually been around for a few years....I just don't have the knowledge and expertise so I don't post much.

Are we going to get rain or not?!?!

I think we will at least get an enhanced chance of rain and what we also need to remember is that this recent blowup in convection will expand the rain and wind field so it should be interesting what the NHC has to say tonight. While it won't be any drought buster or huge amount of rain it should give a lot of people at least a chance at a nice soaking. Lets see how the storm acts tonight.

[michmich]

Okay, Andrew...we'll just remain in that wait.and.see mode. Darnit!

Tireman - I feel like I know you already. Hehe...thanks for the welcome.

[tireman4]

Michmich...you are welcome.....

I can say this about this topic. First, Don has defied the odds. He has been declared dead by the models and the NHC for two days. Two days. Second, he has fought off the elements to remain a storm. Third, he has defied the models by going where he wants. Who knows what remains next? We shall watch this unfold together.

[tireman4]

Dropsonde found 995
with winds of 55 mph at surface on that dropsonde

Latest pass....