EX TC Don- Inland near Baffin Bay "Don Is Dead"

[biggerbyte]

Agreed! His path as well. The placement of the ridge as Don gets closer to land is still uncertain. The models are flipping around again. Caution to sticking a fork in anything at this point is advised. I'm still concerned about the NW Gulf areas. There is every possibility that Don will tighten up again.

[hlewis]

We are anxiously awaiting Don!

[tireman4]

From Meteorologist Larry Cosgrove:

It does not look good for rain chances here in Texas, at least those hoping for a visit from "Tropical Storm Don". There is a clearly visible circulation (which was not easy to discern earlier), only because the CDO has been sheared away almost completely. The track of this very weak system may give some briefly hevay thunderstorms to parts of South Texas. But realistically, "The Lone Star Curse" against rain remains in effect for now.

The High Pressure Death Ridge he calls the Lone Star Curse....LOL

[srainhoutx]

Fourth vortex message...the center is clearly moving NW...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 17:04:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°22'N 90°33'W (24.3667N 90.55W)
B. Center Fix Location: 389 miles (626 km) to the S (184°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,475m (4,839ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 175° at 30kts (From the S at ~ 34.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 30kts (~ 34.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:12:00Z

[Rip76]

Just doesn't look NW to me at all...

[Snowman]

Don's convection is moving west but the center of circulation is moving northwest...

[sau27]

Just doesn't look NW to me at all...

You have to watch the actual center of the circulation and not the blob of convection. The actual center is on the northern edge of the convection and is definitely moving in a NW direction while the convection is moving more westerly than NW

[Rip76]

ok, plus i was looking on iphone satellite.

thanks.

[sambucol]

You have to watch the actual center of the circulation and not the blob of convection. The actual center is on the northern edge of the convection and is definitely moving in a NW direction while the convection is moving more westerly than NW

You think the NHC may show the center relocating in an update?

[biggerbyte]

Doing nothing with this system is just another possible outcome. Don is obviously not an impressive system, and when we have "storms" like this one is, with all of the variables involved, the pendulum can swing either way. Very difficult to predict. I'll admit things don't "currently" look very rain happy.

[biggerbyte]

Chin up, folks. Don is not dead yet, nor has he made landfall. In spite of what you may read elsewhere, unless this thing just completely falls apart over the gulf, somebody is going to get wet. It is only logical.

[sau27]

You have to watch the actual center of the circulation and not the blob of convection. The actual center is on the northern edge of the convection and is definitely moving in a NW direction while the convection is moving more westerly than NW

You think the NHC may show the center relocating in an update?

If by relocate you mean re-forming an a different area then no. I think its still on track with the forecast. In the last frame or 2 of the satellite loop it looks like convection is beginning to fire again at the center. I think it would have to gain some serious latitude to come close to our area of the coast and I dont see that extreme of a turn happening.

[djjordan]

I know Don isn't much to look at ... a very small disorganized system but even if it were to make landfall near Corpus I'm hoping it has enough energy in him to send us a slug of moisture to get some decent rains for once. I'm sure we all agree with that.

[sau27]

I would guess the best we could hope for this far up the coast is for Don to come in as far north as it realistically can (probably Matagorda) and then have its rain shield expand when it hits the coast. But I think even that will take some luck.

[djjordan]

I would guess the best we could hope for this far up the coast is for Don to come in as far north as it realistically can (probably Matagorda) and then have its rain shield expand when it hits the coast. But I think even that will take some luck.

I agree .... crossing fingers for something positive like that scenario!!!!!!

[srainhoutx]

18Z...flip flop continues...but clustered near Corpus...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

DON HAS A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE STORM. IN ADDITION...A STREAM OF
ARC CLOUDS/GUSTS FRONTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CONVECTION. DATA
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE RISING TO 1005 MB...WHILE THE AIRCRAFT WINDS
SUPPORTED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/14. DON REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS
COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH SHIFTED NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH AND
LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE FORECAST TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
STABILIZES AROUND A TRACK SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGAIN FORECAST MODERATE SHEAR TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DON MAKES LANDFALL. THIS AND CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH DRY
AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO IMPEDE
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT DON WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM AND NOT AS A
HURRICANE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LESS
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12-24 HR DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
SHEAR AND ARC CLOUDS...THEN CALLS FOR DON TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 50 KT NEAR LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE 48 HR POINT AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY
THE 72 HR POINT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 24.9N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 25.8N 93.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 26.8N 95.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 27.8N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 28.8N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 30.5N 103.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[TXStormjg]

Well so much for this storm....But it is only the end of July...we still have Auguest and September to go through...

[rnmm]

We still looking at decent rain chances for our area? Just curious.

[kellybell4770]

oh the disappointment the good news is that we got about 2 inches of rain here in Angleton today! I haven't seen that much water in my backyard for 6 months!!