Remnants of Arlene: Inland North of Tuxpan, MX

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106271742
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2011, DB, O, 2011062718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952011
AL, 95, 2011062718, , BEST, 0, 200N, 910W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[srainhoutx]

The 12z Euro suggests a bit more developed storm and a bit further N. It will be interesting to see if the Hurricane models pick up on a northward trend when that guidance comes in...

[srainhoutx]

Up on Navy site...

[wxman57]

Nothing at the surface yet according to obs. Just a trof/wave axis across the eastern BoC/western Yucatan. Those 10-15 kt northerly winds inland across the southern BoC could be the result of the sea breeze.

[srainhoutx]

Our friends at ImpactWeather have released an update this morning prior just to 95L being declared...

http://www.youtube.com/user/impactweath ... cAMWJ1Gosw

[srainhoutx]

95L continues to slowly organize this afternoon. Any surface low appears to be very broad, but it does seem to be wrapping up and looks to be a rather large system...

[unome]

the latest 5-day graphic from HPC is just insane

[Rip76]

I don't know why, but that satellite picture that Srain posted above makes me look to the north of the Yucatan.
Probably nothing.

[srainhoutx]

Up to 50% now...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. THESE RAINS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART

[srainhoutx]

SHIP indicates a 66kt storm...and very slow moving...

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 280023
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0023 UTC TUE JUN 28 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110628 0000 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110628  0000   110628  1200   110629  0000   110629  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.4N  91.6W   20.2N  93.6W   20.7N  95.3W   20.8N  96.9W
BAMD    19.4N  91.6W   20.2N  92.8W   20.8N  94.2W   21.1N  95.5W
BAMM    19.4N  91.6W   20.2N  93.2W   20.7N  94.8W   20.9N  96.3W
LBAR    19.4N  91.6W   20.1N  93.0W   21.3N  94.9W   22.2N  96.9W
SHIP        20KTS          25KTS          33KTS          39KTS
DSHP        20KTS          25KTS          33KTS          39KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110630  0000   110701  0000   110702  0000   110703  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.9N  98.4W   21.2N 101.2W   21.4N 104.2W   21.9N 107.5W
BAMD    21.5N  97.2W   22.0N 100.7W   22.4N 104.2W   23.0N 107.6W
BAMM    21.1N  97.9W   21.2N 101.1W   21.2N 104.3W   21.6N 107.9W
LBAR    23.3N  99.0W   25.6N 103.2W   27.9N 106.9W   31.1N 109.9W
SHIP        43KTS          55KTS          66KTS          66KTS
DSHP        35KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.4N LONCUR =  91.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  19.0N LONM12 =  90.3W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  18.6N LONM24 =  89.3W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$

[ticka1]

At least this one will get us back into hurricane watching/tracking mode for 2011. This one is going to make a run for Mexico - an its just priming the pump or atmosphere!

[srainhoutx]

Nothing new overnight concerning 95L. The system remains rather unorganized and very broad. RECON will likely not find a TD today, if they fly...

[srainhoutx]

Keeping an eye near 21N/92W as a possible low level center. The wave axis is further W, just E of Veracruz and convection appears to be increasing N of Ciudad del Carmen. Shear should rapidly decrease later today/tonight and a weak to moderate TS is not out the question before landfall near or just N of Tampico, IMO...

[srainhoutx]

RECON schedule for tomorrow and Thursday...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 28 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-028

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 29/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02AAA INVEST
C. 29/1500Z
D. 21.0N 95.50W
E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 30/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 30/0915Z
D. 21.5N 97.0W
E. 30/1130Z TO 30/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[Ptarmigan]

Parts of Mexico Experiencing Worst Drought in 70 Years
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?Article ... ryId=14091

Invest 95L is a godsend for Mexico, where they are dry. Since a lot of dry air for us comes from Mexico, I wonder if this mean our drought could start to lessen.

[srainhoutx]

Wide view Visible Imagery...

[srainhoutx]

Up to 70% now and so far RECON has not found a W wind yet, but may be close to forming into a tropical depression...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
TODAY...BUT THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[srainhoutx]

Latest obs do show a lot of SW winds.

[Jamie81]

srain, you mentioned in an earlier post that SHIP model is sugguesting slow movement of this system and I recall seeing in the July 4th outlook thread that some models were sugguesting the high moving toward the north. Are you seeing any indications of this actually happening and possiblity steering whatever this becomes more our way? keeping fingers crossed for some rain....

[srainhoutx]

srain, you mentioned in an earlier post that SHIP model is sugguesting slow movement of this system and I recall seeing in the July 4th outlook thread that some models were sugguesting the high moving toward the north. Are you seeing any indications of this actually happening and possiblity steering whatever this becomes more our way? keeping fingers crossed for some rain....

First, welcome to the board, Jamie81. It does look as if moisture will increase close to Coastal TX, but not a lot inland beyond the Rio Grande Valley and the Corpus area. That said, the 12Z HWRF is a bit slower and suggests a stronger system. I'd keep an eye on the NATL discussions as there are hints of another perhaps stronger disturbance heading toward the Gulf from the NW Caribbean later in the 4th of July Holiday weekend...