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The science behind tracking hurricanes
Posted: Sun Jun 19, 2011 4:14 pm
by unome
found a good article from Corpus Christi's caller.com on hurricane models
http://www.caller.com/news/2011/jun/18/ ... urricanes/
Re: The science behind tracking hurricanes
Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2011 11:18 am
by wxman57
"The National Weather Service's cone of probability, the large three-day and five-day spreads showing the likely area for a hurricane landfall, are taken from an aggregation of the top-performing models."
HUH?? The cone represents a 5-year 66.7th percentile, meaning that the center of the storm will track within this cone 66.7% of the time based on errors over the past 5 years. It is not derived from models. Generally good article, though.