Well worth the copy and paste from HGX...Rain!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
430 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011
.DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER ACROSS SE TX. AREA RADARS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND AND
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR THE AREA
FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
BASED ON GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER IMAGERY...MAIN TROPICAL
MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHED FROM THE W GULF THROUGH W LA INTO THE
OZARKS. GPS MET PRECIP WATER DATA SHOWS 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST AND INLAND FROM GALVESTON TO LUFKIN. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX AND SUPPORT SCT TSRA. POPS FOR
TODAY ARE ALIGNED FROM EAST TO WEST WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS. THIS IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE NAM/WRF SOLUTIONS. BOTH MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION ROOTED IN HIGHER MOISTURE OVER N TX SLIDING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT TIME. SHOULD THIS PAN
OUT...WOULD NEED HIGHER POPS AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN IN
DROUGHT...FORECAST WILL BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH KEEPING
POPS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXIST.
RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE BEST BUT WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 50/60 PERCENT RANGE. AGAIN THE 60 POPS ARE ALIGN
WHERE HIGHEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE SE PORTION OF
SE TX AND ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT PRECIP WATER VALUES TO TO BE
ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...GFS MORE SO THAN THE NAM.
POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY SET UP WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE CONVERGENCE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THE NAM DRIES THE
AREA MORE THAN THE GFS KEEPING RAIN CHANCES MORE OVER THE GULF.
THINK THERE WILL STILL BE SCT TO WIDESPREAD TSRA ON WED WITH
VIRTUALLY NO CAP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S WHICH SHOULD BE ATTAINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LOW NOW
OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL LAG BACK THROUGH C TX. THIS WEAKNESS BETWEEN A RIDGE
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA WILL ALSO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THURSDAY THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND
THE RIDGE OVER THE BAJA BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS TX. KEPT 20/30/40
POPS FOR THU WITH BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AXIS WILL EXIST. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE DURING THE DAY SO WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS. BY FRI PRECIP WATER DROPS TO 1.5-1.7 SO KEPT 20
POPS ALONG THE COAST WHERE HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY
INITIATE A STORM. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO TX SO
EXPECTING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE.
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BUILD THE
RIDGE HAVING IT CENTERED OVER W AND N TX BY SUN. RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE S PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND PRECIP WATER DECREASING
TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OVER SE TX.