June Ends - Hottest on Record

[srainhoutx]

There are 'hints' of a more significant chance of rainfall in the longer range of tropical origin. Eyes will need to shift in that direction and we already have a more detailed discussion ongoing in the Hurricane Central sub forum, for those that are interested...

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=503&start=80

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS does hint at a TUTT low traversing the Gulf later next week. While it looks weak, the upper flow will be easterly and that is a change, if that model is correct. Any deeper tropical mischief looks buried in the W Caribbean through hour 168.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro has come a bit stronger with the upper ridge and closer TX. I suspect those rain chances that we are longing for are dwindling. ~Sigh~

HPC:

MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING FROM TENNESSEE TO TEXAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD

[Ptarmigan]

The 12Z Euro has come a bit stronger with the upper ridge and closer TX. I suspect those rain chances that we are longing for are dwindling. ~Sigh~

HPC:

MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING FROM TENNESSEE TO TEXAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD

I am sure it will change again. That's how the models are.

[nuby3]

The high makes more sense. I'm leaning toward no rain for next week

[unome]

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/05/wi ... ain-again/

SciGuy's May 27th utterly depressing blog about the drought, with the following statement from Impact Weather that brought a ray of hope

"Another factor that is in our favor is the La Niña condition over the tropical Pacific, which has been one of the key players in our extended dry spell, continues to quickly weaken. As a result our extended forecast for June and July calls for significantly more rainfall as tropical moisture surges back into the region. Even though we may be going out on a limb considering how dry it’s been, our latest projection for June calls for normal to possibly above normal rainfall in the Houston area."

[srainhoutx]

HGX offering some hope as the models are sniffing an upper trough developing across the Western Gulf...

00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR SOME RAIN OUT ON THE
HORIZON. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY
BEYOND DAY 7 WITH UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THIS SOLUTION.

[wxman57]

I notice the upper air pattern change indicated by the GFS and Euro of late. I'm unsure how to go with my June forecast contest entry. Looks like I'll win the May contest, taking a 2 point lead going into the final 3 months of the contest. For June, we have to pick how many days IAH will reach 95F or more, tiebreakers will be what the hottest temperature recorded at IAH will be and on what date.

The number of 95F days at IAH in June has ranged from 2 in 2007 to 21 in 2009 in recent years. Max temp from 96 to 104. Best analog year (2008) had 20 95F deg days with a max of 99F. However, if the projected pattern change occurs, the number of 95F days may be well under 20. I also have to consider what the other 25-30 forecasters will do, as the contest is for the CLOSEST to the correct number of days. I won the May contest by having the lowest predicted 1-day rainfall total of all the forecasters, and verifying. Many of the forecasters will pick in the 20s for # of 95F days. I could go just a bit lower than what I think they'll forecast and have a wider possible winning range. What to do...?

Just plotted a GFS meteogram for the next 15 days and only 0.01" of rain is forecast in about 12 days. If it doesn't rain, then it may be hard to keep those temps under 95F.

[redneckweather]

I don't think you are buying into a pattern change, are you wxman?

[srainhoutx]

I think the main problems for wxman57’s contest chance/choice are some hints for tropical mischief in the 7-10 day timeframe originating from the W Caribbean. Will it happen? Not sure, but the signals are there and if I was in a contest, I'd be cautious as well.

[wxman57]

I think the main problems for wxman57’s contest chance/choice are some hints for tropical mischief in the 7-10 day timeframe originating from the W Caribbean. Will it happen? Not sure, but the signals are there and if I was in a contest, I'd be cautious as well.

That's what I'm thinking, any change in the low to mid-level flow might knock those highs down below 95 for a while. Could even give us more rain than the GFS is indicating (more than none, I guess). Ground is SO dry that it's easier to hit 95 now. We only hit 95 a couple of times in May since 2008. Already 4 and probably 5 times (today) this May. But can I go 20+ 95F days with the pattern change predicted? Or should I low-ball and go with maybe 15 times? Hmmm... Don't want to give up my contest lead.

[Ptarmigan]

I notice the upper air pattern change indicated by the GFS and Euro of late. I'm unsure how to go with my June forecast contest entry. Looks like I'll win the May contest, taking a 2 point lead going into the final 3 months of the contest. For June, we have to pick how many days IAH will reach 95F or more, tiebreakers will be what the hottest temperature recorded at IAH will be and on what date.

The number of 95F days at IAH in June has ranged from 2 in 2007 to 21 in 2009 in recent years. Max temp from 96 to 104. Best analog year (2008) had 20 95F deg days with a max of 99F. However, if the projected pattern change occurs, the number of 95F days may be well under 20. I also have to consider what the other 25-30 forecasters will do, as the contest is for the CLOSEST to the correct number of days. I won the May contest by having the lowest predicted 1-day rainfall total of all the forecasters, and verifying. Many of the forecasters will pick in the 20s for # of 95F days. I could go just a bit lower than what I think they'll forecast and have a wider possible winning range. What to do...?

Just plotted a GFS meteogram for the next 15 days and only 0.01" of rain is forecast in about 12 days. If it doesn't rain, then it may be hard to keep those temps under 95F.

We all know how 2008 turned out to be by September........................................

[srainhoutx]

Euro is suggesting a TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough) low in the Gulf allowing for some subsidence through next week. Both the GFS and the Euro are suggesting an easterly flow and a break down of the Upper Ridge. We would likely need for that mid/upper low to pass into MX before our rain chances increase.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TOWARDS TEXAS THIS PERIOD UNDER THE MIDWESTERN/MID-SOUTH
RIDGE...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON A
CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING NORTH OF PANAMA WHICH SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG/NEAR THE 80TH MERIDIAN WITH TIME.
CONVECTIVE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE A
SLOW PROCESS CONSIDERING THE LARGE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO ITS
NORTHWEST...THE SLOW EXPANSION OF THE UPPER HIGH WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANTICIPATED...AND ITS FAIRLY LARGE SIZE AS SHOWN
IN THE GUIDANCE.

[srainhoutx]

Models are in some agreement bringing chances of rain back to the area in the form of scattered showers/storms by the weekend. Looks like a real summertime pattern may well become established, with an easterly flow aiding in breaking down the ever present cap that we have seen for months.

[srainhoutx]

PW's approach 2 inches by Sunday and the TUTT will be in the W Gulf allowing for showers/storms to fire S of the Upper Ridge and N of the TUTT low. Fingers crossed, but it does appear we are headed to a period of enhanced chances of rain across Coastal/Inland areas of TX.

[ticka1]

I will take anything sprinkles. scattered showers, thunder boomers or just anything with RAIN.

[srainhoutx]

HGX a bit more positive sounding this afternoon regarding rain chances beginning Saturday...



NOW FOR SOME GOOD NEWS (MAYBE?)...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH
WEST UNDER THE RIDGE AND APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE EAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH PW AIR AROUND 1.8 INCHES WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY WITH NO CAPPING.
FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR STORMS THIS AREA HAS SEEN
SINCE MAY 25TH. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH MSTR AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO GET SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE REGION. MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AND WILL CARRY POPS
INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES DRY OUT ON TUESDAY SO FEEL OUR
WINDOW OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SAT-MON. FEEL HIGHER POPS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY...BUT SINCE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE SO
SEVERE...JUST DON`T WANT TO GET HOPES TOO HIGH IF FORECAST
PARAMETERS CHANGE.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff:

After months of dry and windy weather a change appears to be in store for the area that could bring some much needed rainfall.

First change has already taken place…the relaxing of the pressure gradient and weakening of the winds across the region. In fact this morning is the first morning in a long while when the winds have been weak enough to allow ground fog to develop. Sub-tropical high pressure building westward over the Gulf in a summer type pattern as finally weakened the gradient. Winds will be driven for the next several days by the afternoon sebreeze front and overnight landbreeze due to the heating and cooling of the land.

With the winds lighter and the seabreeze able to develop now all we need is better moisture and we could be in for some of our more typically afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Mid levels remain very dry and the capping continues to hold over the area, but as the sub-tropical high builds north of the region by late Thursday the mid levels finally cool as a deep easterly flow begins to develop. This flow will gradually moisten the air column and at last the stubborn capping of the last several months will be removed by Saturday. Upper level low is forecast to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico early this weekend and slowly move westward into S TX late in the weekend. Areas on the eastern side of this trough axis will lie within the deep moisture feed with PWS climbing to near 2.0 inches or higher by Sunday across much of the area east of Matagorda Bay. There may also be a few embedded upper air disturbances rotating around the southern side of the central US high pressure cell to help act on this increasing moisture. Also, there is the area of small low pressure off the SC Coast this morning (see NHC statements) which looks to ride the upper level flow into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 2-3 days. Lastly, there is a large amount of deep tropical moisture over the western Caribbean Sea and this may get pulled northward also.

Not ready to get carried away yet with rain chances, but it appears that a decent shot at rainfall is developing for the Sunday-Monday time period as this moisture pours into the region. Negatives continue to be the ongoing drought and feedback processes on the low level air mass. Hopefully the upper low is strong enough to bump/weaken the ridge enough to at least give the seabreeze a fighting chance at producing some convection by Sunday. Based on trends, may need to up/add rain chances to Saturday afternoon and some activity may attempt to surge into the area from the east.

Drought:

Yesterday marked the end of the “spring” season and 2011 will go down as the driest spring ever recorded for the City of Houston (both IAH and Hobby). Drought conditions have continued to worsen south of I-10 over the past several weeks with now every county in SE TX in either extreme or exceptional drought status. Hobby Airport has had 4 straight months with less than an inch of rainfall (a new record). IAH has only received 1.90 inches of rainfall in the last 4 months and Hobby 1.31 inches. Listed below are some of the rainfall departures since October 2010:

Bellville: -18.76
Brenham: -17.67
Columbus: -18.24
Conroe: -19.08
Galveston: -7.28
Freeport: -16.23
Hobby: -15.12
IAH: -17.07
Huntsville: -20.43
Livingston: -20.81
Katy: -16.20
Matagorda: -15.62
Tomball: -22.21
Victoria: -14.91

Wildfires were frequent over the holiday weekend given the strong winds and dry fuels. Several large fires developed over Harris and Walker Counties threatening some structures. Much lighter winds and greater surface moisture should help reduce the wildfire threat this week.

[srainhoutx]

For those tracking the Tropics, we have INVEST 93L (currently just E of Florida) that may be headed toward the Gulf and the Upper TX Coast that we are following in Hurricane Central...

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=685