Re: Less than 2 weeks to EastPac season
Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 9:51 am
^
Both Basins...
Both Basins...
sizzling for this time of year. Way above normal...Wx Infinity Forums
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EPAC Hurricane Season 2011: Kenneth Quickly Weakening
Page 1 of 4
Re: Less than 2 weeks to EastPac season
Posted: Wed May 04, 2011 12:54 pm
Look at the GOM.... sizzling for this time of year. Way above normal...
sizzling for this time of year. Way above normal...Re: Less than 2 weeks to EastPac season
Posted: Thu May 05, 2011 2:05 pm
PAUL....SHHHHHHHHH....don't say that so loud! I'm JUST now starting my own business, so I do NOT want to deal with insurance hoop-la so soon. 
Praying for a quiet season for us, especially those of us VERY near the Freeport\Surfside coast. We've dodged some SERIOUS bullets the past few years. Lets hope that trend continues for us.
Praying for a quiet season for us, especially those of us VERY near the Freeport\Surfside coast. We've dodged some SERIOUS bullets the past few years. Lets hope that trend continues for us.Re: Less than 2 weeks to EastPac season
Posted: Mon May 09, 2011 1:21 pm
The long range GFS is sniffing out some development in the EPAC just beyond the 15th. That model suggests a strengthening Tropical Storm heading NNW toward the Mexican Pacific Coastline beyond the 20th. We will see.
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season Starts May 15th
Posted: Sun May 15, 2011 9:42 am
Code: Select all
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...8...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
---------------------------------------------------------------
ADRIAN AY- DREE UHN MAX MAKS
BEATRIZ BEE- A TRIZ NORMA NOOR- MUH
CALVIN KAL- VIN OTIS OH- TIS
DORA DOR- RUH PILAR PEE LAHR-
EUGENE YOU- JEEN RAMON RAH MOHN-
FERNANDA FER NAN- DAH SELMA SELL- MAH
GREG GREG TODD TAHD
HILARY HIH- LUH REE VERONICA VUR RAHN- IH KUH
IRWIN UR- WIN WILEY WY- LEE
JOVA HO- VAH XINA ZEE- NAH
KENNETH KEH- NETH YORK YORK
LIDIA LIH- DYAH ZELDA ZEL- DAH
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season Starts May 15th
Posted: Tue May 17, 2011 9:08 am
Storms are increasing near the The Gulf of Tehuantepec as a favorable mjo pulse heads E...
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season Starts May 15th
Posted: Mon May 23, 2011 2:48 pm
90E has been declared...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 23 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 23 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Models Hint Developme
Posted: Tue May 31, 2011 6:42 am
With a favorable MJO pulse and Kelvin wave approaching the EPAC, the GFS is sniffing out TC genesis later this week that spins up to a full blown Hurricane...
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Models Hint Developme
Posted: Tue May 31, 2011 11:34 am
The 12Z GFS continues to advertise TC genesis in the EPAC by the weekend. As can be seen on the 156 hour chart, the Western Caribbean low is still around and meandering N as well...
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Models Hint Developme
Posted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 5:01 am
HWRF Model sniffing out future Adrian with the 93L run...
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Models Hint Developme
Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2011 1:17 pm
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 4 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 4 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Models Hint Developme
Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2011 1:51 pm
91E is declared:
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EP, 91, 2011060418, , BEST, 0, 106N, 982W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Models Hint Developme
Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2011 9:19 pm
GFDL is sniffing out an impressive Hurricane...
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Models Hint Developme
Posted: Sat Jun 04, 2011 11:14 pm
00Z GFS suggests Adrian in the not too distant future...
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Models Hint Developme
Posted: Sun Jun 05, 2011 12:37 pm
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
TO THE NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS
TO THE NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Adrian Forming?
Posted: Sun Jun 05, 2011 11:08 pm
The 00Z GFS suggests Adrian. Just how close to the Mexican shore will it come, is the $64,000 question...
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Adrian Forming?
Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2011 10:16 am
It appears we may have a TD later today...
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Adrian Forming?
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2011 8:18 am
We should see TD 1E later today...
Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Adrian Forming?
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2011 9:23 am
TD 1E has been declared...
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Re: East Pacfic Hurricane Season 2011. Adrian Forming?
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2011 9:42 am
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011
...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2011 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON FORMS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 100.0W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011
...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2011 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON FORMS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 100.0W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.