Weather for the MS-150 Bike Ride to Austin (Apr. 16-17)

[wxman57]

As I'm sure that some of you will be riding from Houston to Austin in the annual MS-150 bike ride (my wife is), I thought I'd start a thread to keep you updated as to the weather for the big event.

For now, the long-range GFS is only JUST reaching out to that Saturday. Initial indications are that we may see a frontal passage around Friday the 15th, clearing out for the weekend. Of course, from this far out, I'd add a +/- 24 hours for that frontal passage time. It could easily arrive a day later, making for rain/storms on Saturday.

My forecast as of today would be for the weak front to move through on Thursday or Friday. That would mean light NE-E winds (coming from your right-rear) on the first day to La Grange. Temperatures at the start in the lower 60s with a high in the lower 80s by 3pm.

Light ESE-SE winds on Sunday (tail wind). Low in the low 60s and a high of 83-85.

If the above holds true, then it may be some of the best weather for the ride in a number of years. Just keep in mind that my initial forecast is based on the VERY long-range GFS and, to an extent, the 10-day Euro pattern that only goes out to 5 days before the ride.

[wxman57]

Not too much to report today. The ride continues to be in the less-detailed extended range of the GFS runs, though it's almost within the 10-day forecasts of the Euro and Canadian models. Indications are that we'll see another frontal passage either the Friday before the ride or during the day on Saturday. Today's models say Friday, earlier runs suggested the front may be delayed until Saturday. It's too early to tell. Need to wait another 6-7 days to be more sure.

Assuming the front moves though on Friday, then Sat/Sun would be dry with a high in the 80s and morning lows in the upper 50s or low 60s. Wind would be from the E to SE - a tail wind for the riders.

However, should the front arrive on Saturday, then we may see showers and possibly a few thunderstorms along the ride route, but any rain probably won't be long-lasting. You'll just need to take cover at a rest stop if any showers/storms move across the route.

[wxman57]

Today's 12Z (7am CDT) GFS run brings the weak front through on Thursday the 14th. Nice weather for the MS 150 weekend - lows in the 60s, highs in the 80s an an ESE to SE wind (tail wind). No rain. Let's hope this forecast holds.

[wxman57]

The MS-150 ride from Houston to Austin is just 9 days away, and both the GFS and European models are converging on a solution that would result in great weather for the ride. Both models now have that cold front moving through by Thursday evening rather than on Friday or Saturday. That would leave Texas dominated by high pressure over the MS-150 weekend. Sunny skies and not-too-hot temperatures would be much better weather than some recent years. And to top it off, there would be a good chance of a tail wind on both days (at least Sunday).

[CMN]

Thanks for these updates, I'm watching them closely!

All the usual suspects seem to be predicting a S/SE wind as you said, with the notable exception of AccuWeather.com:

http://www.accuweather.com/us/tx/la-gra ... asp?fday=9

An ominous prediction of 15MPH NW winds Saturday and 11MPH NNE Sunday. Any thoughts on what gives? Eek!

[wxman57]

There is a question as to how cold of a front will move through late Thursday or early Friday. The latest GFS run as well as the GFS push the frontal passage back to during the day on Friday. Both are indicating some moderately cool air behind this front now. GFS 2-meter temps valid 7am Saturday are in the upper 40s for the start with a high in the 70s. Wind would be from the NE at 12-15 mph the first day if this happens. But the 2nd day wind would come from behind you. Lots of sunshine if the front comes through Friday.

This would be much better weather than last time when Saturday was rained-out. I think that was 2010? Or maybe it was 2009?

The AccuWeather forecast, by the way, is straight model data. No meteorologist makes corrections.

[CMN]

Very helpful - thank you!

[wxman57]

Still looking like great weather next weekend. Very good model agreement on the weak cold front moving through on Friday morning. Light NE winds Saturday and a tail wind (SE) Sunday. Morning low Saturday in the lower 50s. High in the upper 70s with lots of sun. Morning low 54-56 in La Grange Sunday. High in the low 80s.

Doesn't get much better than that for this ride.

[wxman57]

No change in the overnight model runs. Still looks like great weather for the ride.

Saturday: Morning low near 50. Wind from the N to NNE at 5-10 mph. That will be coming from your right to right-front, which will appear as a slight headwind. Temperature in the low 70s by noon and near 80 by 3pm. Wind will gradually rotate around from the NE and E during the afternoon.

Sunday: Morning low in the lower 50s in La Grange. Wind from the ESE-SE at 5-8 mph at the start, increasing to 10-15 mph mid morning. That will be a straight tail wind. Temperature near 75 by noon and into the low 80s at the finish.

[wxman57]

Nothing new to report. I was looking back at my first post in this thread from March 31st. From 15 days ago, I mentioned a weak front passing tonight or tomorrow and clearing weather for the weekend. I was a bit high with the morning low projections, but not bad from that far out.

[srainhoutx]

What a great day for the MS 150. Have a safe ride to those participating. A special thanks to wxman57 for providing a forecast for this event year after year on our weather forum for this worthy cause. Have Fun!