March Weather Disccusion: Severe Storms Possible Tues/Wed

[weatherguy425]

Let's hope for some rain!!

[sleetstorm]

Well, I was going to begin a thread for the month of March, yet weatherguy425 beat me to it. Anyway, what does the weather look like on my birthday this year? Are all of the models still not showing arctic surges next month minor and major? I was also going to ask what the weather might be like for Spring Break this year, yet I am certian that it is still too early to know for the time being, yes?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests some cooler air and another robust disturbance crossing TX next week...

[wxman57]

00Z Euro has NO cold air moving south into Texas next week. Just a weak Pacific frontal passage.

[srainhoutx]

We need some rain. The seasonal outlook is even more discouraging...

Code: Select all

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
910 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011


                 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

         ...NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION STILL ENDURING
                     EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS...

           ...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...
FEBRUARY STARTED OUT ON A FRIGID NOTE AND THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF THE
MONTH WERE UNSEASONABLY COLD. THE LAST WEEK HAS TRENDED MUCH WARMER.
OVERALL...FEBRUARY HAS BEEN DRY WITH MOST OF THE PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY CLIMATE SITES REPORTING RAINFALL UNDER AN INCH. RAINFALL
TODAY WAS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

BELOW ARE TWO TABLES WITH RAINFALL FOR THE CLIMATE SITES FOR
FEBRUARY AND RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY 17 THROUGH FEBRUARY 24.
THE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS AROUND 3.50 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION TO AROUND 4.25 INCHES CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

SITE            FEBRUARY RAIN      JAN 17 - FEB 24 RAIN

IAH                0.69                 2.72#
HOU                0.34                 2.81#
CLL                0.55                 0.63
GLS                0.66                 1.83
SGR                0.75                 2.15
UTS                0.36                 1.17
CXO                0.57                 2.14
DWH                0.29                 0.75
PSX                0.72                 2.23
LVJ                0.35                 2.37

# IAH 1.94 INCHES OF RAIN ON 1/24   HOU 2.40 INCHES OF RAIN ON 1/24

OVER THE LAST 27 DAYS...BOTH INTERCONTINENTAL AND HOBBY AIRPORT
RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN.

OTHER RAINFALL TOTALS FOR COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY...THROUGH FEBRUARY 23RD:

COMMUNITY               RAIN

ANAHUAC                 0.77
BAYTOWN                 0.48
BELLVILLE               0.65
BRENHAM                 0.81
CLEVELAND               0.80
COLUMBUS                0.61
CROCKETT                0.49
DANEVANG                0.62
KATY                    0.05
MADISONVILLE            2.35
RICHMOND                0.53
SOMERVILLE              0.40
WASH STATE PARK         0.60
WHARTON                 0.83

AS OF FEBRUARY FEBRUARY 22ND 2011...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
SHOWED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN EXTREME
DROUGHT OR D-3.  THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION RECEIVED SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN IN JANUARY AND CONDITIONS VARY BETWEEN MODERATE DROUGHT
AND ABNORMALLY DRY.

BELOW IS A LIST OF COUNTIES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE CLASSIFICATION AS
DESIGNATED BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF FEBRUARY 15TH:


       D-3            D-2          D-1           D-0
     EXTREME        SEVERE       MODERATE    ABNORMALLY
     DROUGHT        DROUGHT      DROUGHT         DRY

     AUSTIN         MONTGOMERY   JACKSON      BRAZORIA
     BRAZOS         COLORADO     LIBERTY      CHAMBERS
     BURLESON       SAN JACINTO  WHARTON      FORT BEND
     GRIMES                                   GALVESTON
     HOUSTON                                  HARRIS
     MADISON                                  MATAGORDA
     POLK
     TRINITY
     WALKER
     WALLER
     WASHINGTON



                 U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS


BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:

D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS
   A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING
   A WATER EMERGENCY.

D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD WATER
   SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.

D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
   SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS
   OR WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
   WATER DEFICITS.


FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY SINCE OCTOBER 2008. THE OVERALL TREND
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS WILL BE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH SPRING AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS SUMMER.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

COLD WEATHER DAMAGED WINTER ANNUAL GRASSES...VEGETABLES AND CITRUS
CROPS. LIVESTOCK WERE QUICKLY DEPLETING HAY SUPPLIES AND PRODUCERS
WERE BRINGING IN ALFALFA HAY. SPRING CROPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PLANTED IN A FEW WEEKS. WHEAT WAS IN FAIR CONDITION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE).

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WAS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT GENERALLY NORTH OF
A SEGNO TO HOUSTON TO BRENHAM LINE. THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN 1000 HOUR
DEAD FUEL WAS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEST OF A LIVINGSTON TO HOUSTON
TO PALACIOS LINE. THE DAILY FIRE MAP AND FIVE DAY AVERAGES SHOW A
MODERATE RISK FOR FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

COOLER WEATHER AND RAIN EARLIER IN THE MONTH HAS HELPED TO LOWER
KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VALUES BETWEEN
700 AND 800 ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THERE ARE NO
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A KBDI VALUE OVER 600. THE 8 TO 14
DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SHOWS CONDITIONS TO REMAIN WARM AND DRY SO
THE KBDI VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH. BELOW IS A TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES (2/24/2011):

        500-600       400-500       300-400       200-300

        BRAZOS        AUSTIN        BRAZORIA      FORT BEND
        BURLESON      COLORADO      MONTGOMERY    HARRIS
        GRIMES        HOUSTON       MATAGORDA     LIBERTY
        MADISON       WALKER        POLK
        WASHINGTON    WALLER        SAN JACINTO
                                    TRINITY
                                    WHARTON

(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/
KBDI_DAILY/ KBDICOUNTY.PNG).

RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...

BURN BANS ARE MAKING A COMEBACK DUE TO DRY GROUND FUELS. ON THURSDAY
FEBRUARY 17TH...A GRASS FIRE CONSUMED 100 ACRES NEAR ORCHARD TEXAS
IN FORT BEND COUNTY. VEGETATION KILLED BY THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES IN
EARLY FEBRUARY HAVE DRIED AND ARE THE PERFECT TINDER.

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON FEBRUARY 24
2011...(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/ DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN BAN
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

AUSTIN...BRAZOS...GRIMES...LIBERTY...MADISON...WALLER...WASHINGTON
AND WHARTON.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL AND AREA RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION HAVE BEGUN TO DROP.

     WATERSHED                   CAPACITY

LAKE LIVINGSTON                100.0 PERCENT
LAKE CONROE                     93.3 PERCENT
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE             97.2 PERCENT
LAKE HOUSTON                   100.0 PERCENT
LAKE SOMERVILLE                 86.3 PERCENT
LAKE TEXANA                     79.2 PERCENT

WATER RESTRICTIONS...NONE AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERABLY
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.
NEITHER OF THE TWO IMPENDING RAIN EVENTS WILL BRING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN. THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH LOOKS WARM AND DRY.

THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR AROUND MARCH 3 2011.

[srainhoutx]

Speaking of beach weather and warmer waters, a slow transition toward tropical season has already began in Hurricane Central for those that follow such discussions and developments...

http://forums.khou.com/viewforum.php?f=4

[srainhoutx]

00Z Euro has NO cold air moving south into Texas next week. Just a weak Pacific frontal passage.

The 12Z GFS suggests otherwise...

[Ptarmigan]

Unscientific observation, when I was working in Austin every year at Spring Break, never having partayed at SPI, we always had our final unpleasant coolness of the season. A day or two below 60ºF for the high, and then that was it.


Freshman year I was a dishwasher and busboy at Mr. Gatti's, Texas made the Elite 8. Burnt orange BMW t-shirts.

I suppose I can ask our statistician for the average date, and record late date, for a freeze, so I can know when the nightmare is over.


On an unrelated note, ok, you can call MAM 'Spring', but if we go by what most people accept, a mid March Spring Break is in Winter.

The water temperature at the South Texas beaches are at their absolute minimum, and even warm enough weather for sunbathing is not at all guaranteed.

I know an early April Spring Break is closer to finals, and the water is still cold, but at least there is a decent shot of decent beach weather.

At Bush Intercontinental Airport from 1970 to 2010.

Average Date For Last Freeze
February 24

Earliest Date For Last Freeze
December 26, 1990 (After the December 1989 Freeze, it did not get cold afterwards. It was mild)

Latest Date For Last Freeze
April 10, 1973

Standard Deviation
22.8

[Ptarmigan]

Thanks.

I like snow, but I hate cold.

Your welcome. I looked at Houston Weather Branch data and found some winters first reached 32 in February or not at all like in the winter of 1930-1931. The following winter, 1931-1932 did not first reach 32 until March, when snow fell that time. The winter of 1930-1931 was a strong El Nino.

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Ind ... y.filter-5

The El Nino data I am using is from the Japanese Meteorological Agency. NOAA does not have ENSO data before 1950 as far as I know.

[wxman57]

No sign of any significant rain for the next 2 weeks. Most areas may see .25 to .5" or less during the next few weeks. No sign of much cold weather, either. Temps may dip into the upper 30s next Sunday, but that could well be the last 30s we see this season.

[srainhoutx]

Sadly, the 12Z GFS doesn't look encouraging regarding rain chances. No 30's this weekend either. There does appear to be a rather stout cold front near the 9th/10th. But unfortunately this is just too far away for my tastes and with the GFS flip flopping daily, I have my doubts that it will verify as well...

[srainhoutx]

A big change for the 12Z Canadian, today. That model has trended the way of the Euro. That model also suggests a more southerly track of a robust Upper Air disturbance which would mean less of a capping issue. If the Euro holds ground with the 12Z run, we may have something to talk about...

[wxman57]

12Z GFS appears to be on its own as far as any significant cold (i.e., light freeze) for the 10th-11th. Euro is not so cold at day 10. I don't buy the latest GFS as it tends to occasionally forecast such cold in the extended range.

[srainhoutx]

Even the Euro doesn't agree with the extreme nature of the Canadian for this coming weekend. With that said, the Canadian did take a step toward the Euro, ensemble wise, and the HPC is suggesting some Winter RECON missions may be ahead for some clarity in future guidance since the American models are too progressive. As wxman57 stated, the GFS solution is a bit stronger regarding the 8th-10th time frame, but the Euro did take a step toward a somewhat stronger front. We will see.

[Ptarmigan]

A big change for the 12Z Canadian, today. That model has trended the way of the Euro. That model also suggests a more southerly track of a robust Upper Air disturbance which would mean less of a capping issue. If the Euro holds ground with the 12Z run, we may have something to talk about...

That upper level low would the RAID for that annoying cockroach cap!

[sleetstorm]

That it would be, Ptarmigan. Does anyone know how this cap formed in the first place? Who is in charge of this new weather forum? I think that Dan was in charge of the old one.

[srainhoutx]

Does anyone know how this cap formed in the first place?

Our cap is usually a result of very warm air in the mid levels flowing from the SW across the Sierra Madre Oriental Range (in Mexico) and into S and SE TX.

[Ptarmigan]

Does anyone know how this cap formed in the first place?

Our cap is usually a result of very warm air in the mid levels flowing from the SW across the Sierra Madre Oriental Range (in Mexico) and into S and SE TX.

A good analogy is warm air are like cockroaches coming into the house. The upper level low pressure disturbance/system is like RAID and kills the cockroaches. Once it passes, the cockroaches come back again.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Canadian as well as the NOGAPS are in somewhat agreement with the Euro regarding the weekend system. The SPC is hinting at severe weather chances on Saturday. The more likely location would suggest N TX/OK. There may be a Winter RECON mission in the Pacific on 00Z Thursday as well. This disturbance looks rather robust and does appear to be tracking further S than what we have seen of late.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2011

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY ATTENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY FRI-SAT AND THE ERN STATES BY SUNDAY.
THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN 00Z MREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. ECMWF CONTINUES TO OFFER A MUCH
STRONGER AND SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH COULD GIVE RISE TO SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN STATES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED VARIANCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY PLACE A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN DEPICTING A BROADER MID-LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY NEXT TUESDAY /DAY 8/.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN QUESTION AND WILL
HINGE HEAVILY ON HOW STRONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LEADING SYSTEM
BECOMES AND HOW FAR S THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PENETRATES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

..RACY.. 03/01/2011

[Ptarmigan]

Here is link for severe weather events in the past going back to 1950. I am doing some statistical analysis at this time.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/historical.html