Long Range 2011 Tropical Season Discussion

[srainhoutx]

As we begin to look ahead, there are early indications that we may be heading toward another active season as La Nina begins to relax...

[Cycloneye]

Hi to all after a long absence. Yes,it will probably be at Neutral ENSO and that alone guarantees another active season.Let's see how the other factors favor or not the active season that is expected.

[srainhoutx]

CPC:

Nearly all of the ENSO model forecasts weaken La Niña in the coming months (Fig. 6). A majority of the models predict a return to ENSO-neutral conditions by May-June-July 2011, although some models persist a weaker La Niña into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. Recent trends in the observations and models do not offer many hints on which outcome is more likely. Also, model skill is historically at a minimum during the Northern Hemisphere spring (the “spring barrier”). Therefore La Niña is expected to weaken during the next several months, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions equally likely during May-June 2011.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[Paul]

I will call my shot....Neutral conditions for the entire season....which means active active....I would say more so than last year...but not ready to throw out any numbers just yet....

hI Louis....see you over at the other site Rock "the EURO Hugger" will be there soon...