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radiogirltx wrote:I was thinking the same thing. Not sure I can get back in line for that rollercoaster! LOL!

Enjoy the winter ride now because hurricane season will be here before you know it and it tends to be a lot bumpier than the winter ones!

tireman4 wrote:Come back Doc.....!!! I do like David Paul and Gene Norman ( although the Norman Number...sigh). I also liked Greg Fischel on WRAL CBS TV Channel 5 in Raleigh, North Carolina. Great meteorologist from Penn State. I digress. Txagwxman on Storm 2K is saying the 850MB temps are still little too high, as of now.


Rain Houston Wed...850 mb temps too warm...

It seems Houston is at the mercy of 850 mb temperature for snow. If the 850 mb temperature is cold, while surface temperature is not too cold, we get snow, like in February 1994.

sambucol wrote:

radiogirltx wrote:I was thinking the same thing. Not sure I can get back in line for that rollercoaster! LOL!

Enjoy the winter ride now because hurricane season will be here before you know it and it tends to be a lot bumpier than the winter ones!

How true...how long was the Ike thread?

cisa wrote: ...how long was the Ike thread?

Nearly 500 pages.

srainhoutx wrote:

cisa wrote: ...how long was the Ike thread?

Nearly 500 pages.

That was countless days and nights of posting model runs, wobbles and storm reports. It was bad.

HGX thoughts regarding next week...

THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY...WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY WITH A
DEVELOPING 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW VAST TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THINK A FASTER SOLUTION IS WARRANTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE AIRMASS...AND LEANED TOWARD AN EARLY WEDNESDAY FROPA SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SE TX STILL EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM PRECIP DEVELOPING. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY OVER OUR NRN ZONES...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE ALL THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT. OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING
THIS FRONT. MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -6C OVER THE
AREA. A HARD FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT

Andrew wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:

cisa wrote: ...how long was the Ike thread?

Nearly 500 pages.

That was countless days and nights of posting model runs, wobbles and storm reports. It was bad.

I remember seeing like 10-20 pages an hour or so right up to the event. This place was a mad house.
I bet if Febuary has something exciting left, we can add up the two threads and may give Ike thread a run.


Oh the z.forum days. LOL

32ºF is the current temperature here in Baytown.

Baytown Weather Bug on N Main at the GCCISD operations location is reading 30. It's been going back and forth between 29 and 30 for the last 2 hours. Cloudy, too.

sobeit wrote:Yeah I am only kidding about Frank I do miss the weather men of days gone by, Dr. Neil, Ed Brandon, and my favorite was Doug Johnson. David Paul is my favorite today Sorry I digress from the topic at hand

My favorite was Doug Johnson too. I grew up watching him.

sleetstorm wrote:32ºF is the current temperature here in Baytown.

Hasn't budged from 27 degrees here all day long.

Almost 33 deg here in Westbury. Was a bit over 33 earlier when the sun briefly appeared.

Got an idea to improve my meteograms. I added in the projected 850mb temperature (dotted red line). Now you can see if the 850mb temp is below freezing during precip. It shows the current forecast 850mb temp is well above freezing next Wednesday morning during the light precip:



And, to give you all a little hope about the future of February, here's the extended part of the 12Z GFS. Keep in mind the temps are valid 6am and 6pm. Actual highs will be greater than the 6pm temps by maybe 4-6 deg.

Man, they couldn't even get the forecast right today. Temps were supposed to be above freezing at 9am today. It never got there. Yikes.

Imagine how awesome it would have been had it snowed 5 inches last night.

Nobody dare speak of snow again.. even if it's a certainty, I bet the local mets will be biting their lips not to utter the word.

vbhoutex wrote:

helloitsb wrote:

wxman666 wrote:I am going to be tracking this one with you guys this week. Can I get some opinions from some experienced members or pro mets? With this past ice storm that hit today, and another possible winter storm event on wednesday, with temps below freezing possible ahead of the front...will this basically just cripple us even more? I am wondering if things will get worse (I mean seriously, sand trucks sliding and flipping over on I-10!?) or if it will be a reduced severity if warming occurs before the next storm. Thanks.

oh yeah, I was going to ask earlier before I took a nap, can one of the mets explain what went wrong with this system? The track of the ULL and stuff, I think it would help me learn thanks

Part of the problem with this one was, as posted earlier, not having enough sounding info to see the warm layer that was over our area. Based on the info available and interpretation required due to no direct Hou/Gal data the original predictions would seem to have been correct. Obviously they weren't, but it wasn't just a "bust" for a few mets, it was a "bust" for most mets in SE TX. JMHO. Pro mets feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

I have been talking some with Larry Cosgrove on FB about this. He is the only met I know who got this right about no snow. I mentioned the sounding thing and he said that is not the problem, that there is enough data available without the Hou/Gal non-existant soundings. The 850 mb majic line for snow in this area(about -4c) was never really far enough South to give a good solid call for snow in Houston according to him. Do any of the pro-mets agree with this? I seem to remember that what he is saying is correct, at least in the later model runs, but in my desire for snow I think I ignored it. So I pose the question to the mets here. What did almost all the mets in our area miss? If Larry is correct in his assessment, why did so many not catch it and/or did they ignore it getting caught up in the wish for the big story(hype?)?

Channel 11 again mentioning the possibility of "wintry weather" (precip) next week in the Wednesday timeframe.

Tim Heller on weather here next Wednesday: "something to keep your eyes on"

Is this event setting up to trend colder and colder with each passing day? Seems like thats what happened last week....

BiggieSmalls wrote:Is this event setting up to trend colder and colder with each passing day? Seems like thats what happened last week....

There is little doubt that we have a snow cover to our N, now.

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!