February Ends Warm and Dry

[vbhoutex]

I am going to be tracking this one with you guys this week. Can I get some opinions from some experienced members or pro mets? With this past ice storm that hit today, and another possible winter storm event on wednesday, with temps below freezing possible ahead of the front...will this basically just cripple us even more? I am wondering if things will get worse (I mean seriously, sand trucks sliding and flipping over on I-10!?) or if it will be a reduced severity if warming occurs before the next storm. Thanks.

We should have enough warming between now and then to keep it from crippling us more, meaning all the ice should be gone by then. However, I am wondering about the temps. Wxman, with the solid snowpack just to our North is it possible/probable the temps might be overdone(too high)for the next one? IIRC the models never do seem to handle the temps well for these events.

[helloitsb]

for some reason I can't get excited...

Me neither. I hate disappointment. Now I had to have a day off from school, which is pointless with ice and no snow. Katy ISD has already said there is a makeup day that will ruin the four day weekend we orignally had on the Katy schedule. Is there anything good about this because I can't think of anything. GRRRR

Klein ISD hasn't announced anything, honestly I wouldn't mind making up a day if we got a GOOD snow storm but for this it seems like a waste, bad thing is we only have 2 days left on the schedule that could be make ups, one of them being the day after school gets out that wouldn't be cool

[cisa]

Ya know, once the pattern is in place it seems like you get two or threes shots as the storms ride the rollercoaster so to speak. They may veer a little left or right or the temps may fluctuate, but the actual pattern stays the same. This time the pattern shifted at the end just a little. But 100 mile shift can change what you get. My question, albeit lengthy, is which model handled this one the best, and will that be an indicator of what to watch for 5 days out?

[vbhoutex]

I am going to be tracking this one with you guys this week. Can I get some opinions from some experienced members or pro mets? With this past ice storm that hit today, and another possible winter storm event on wednesday, with temps below freezing possible ahead of the front...will this basically just cripple us even more? I am wondering if things will get worse (I mean seriously, sand trucks sliding and flipping over on I-10!?) or if it will be a reduced severity if warming occurs before the next storm. Thanks.

oh yeah, I was going to ask earlier before I took a nap, can one of the mets explain what went wrong with this system? The track of the ULL and stuff, I think it would help me learn thanks

Part of the problem with this one was, as posted earlier, not having enough sounding info to see the warm layer that was over our area. Based on the info available and interpretation required due to no direct Hou/Gal data the original predictions would seem to have been correct. Obviously they weren't, but it wasn't just a "bust" for a few mets, it was a "bust" for most mets in SE TX. JMHO. Pro mets feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

[JulieC]

Katy ISD has already said there is a makeup day that will ruin the four day weekend we orignally had on the Katy schedule. Is there anything good about this because I can't think of anything. GRRRR

Same here in our district. Thankfully, we didn't put kids in buses on icy roads this morning. That could have been tragic, and avoiding a potential tragedy, especially when children are involved, is worth having to make up a school day.

That is true. I just wish they had chosen a different day for the makeup day.

[sobeit]

Only 5 days lead time for this event!!! Channel 11 has this in their forecast and channel 2 not so much.

Channel 11 has the degreed mets. I suspect even without a BS degree, however, Frank can read the local AFD and look at models, after ballpark twenty years doing this, and, especially if the Euro looks anything like the GFS, winter weather possibilities may be mentioned in the evening forecast on KPRC.

He has to tend to his hair.

[JulieC]

Only 5 days lead time for this event!!! Channel 11 has this in their forecast and channel 2 not so much.

Channel 11 has the degreed mets. I suspect even without a BS degree, however, Frank can read the local AFD and look at models, after ballpark twenty years doing this, and, especially if the Euro looks anything like the GFS, winter weather possibilities may be mentioned in the evening forecast on KPRC.

He has to tend to his hair.

ROFL!!! Now that is funny! I like Frank though. After Ike, a lot of his focus was on Galveston and that was helpful for those of us who have property there and couldn't get there to see it. I was very grateful to him for that, so I won't knock Frank.

[sobeit]

Yeah I am only kidding about Frank I do miss the weather men of days gone by, Dr. Neil, Ed Brandon, and my favorite was Doug Johnson. David Paul is my favorite today Sorry I digress from the topic at hand

[radiogirltx]

Is anyone really ready to do this all over again..be it only 5 days away this time..I guess put on another pot of coffee and saddle up for a week of guessing

I was thinking the same thing. Not sure I can get back in line for that rollercoaster! LOL!

[tireman4]

Come back Doc.....!!! I do like David Paul and Gene Norman ( although the Norman Number...sigh). I also liked Greg Fischel on WRAL CBS TV Channel 5 in Raleigh, North Carolina. Great meteorologist from Penn State. I digress. Txagwxman on Storm 2K is saying the 850MB temps are still little too high, as of now.


Rain Houston Wed...850 mb temps too warm...

[sambucol]

I was thinking the same thing. Not sure I can get back in line for that rollercoaster! LOL!

Enjoy the winter ride now because hurricane season will be here before you know it and it tends to be a lot bumpier than the winter ones!

[Ptarmigan]

Come back Doc.....!!! I do like David Paul and Gene Norman ( although the Norman Number...sigh). I also liked Greg Fischel on WRAL CBS TV Channel 5 in Raleigh, North Carolina. Great meteorologist from Penn State. I digress. Txagwxman on Storm 2K is saying the 850MB temps are still little too high, as of now.


Rain Houston Wed...850 mb temps too warm...

It seems Houston is at the mercy of 850 mb temperature for snow. If the 850 mb temperature is cold, while surface temperature is not too cold, we get snow, like in February 1994.

[cisa]

I was thinking the same thing. Not sure I can get back in line for that rollercoaster! LOL!

Enjoy the winter ride now because hurricane season will be here before you know it and it tends to be a lot bumpier than the winter ones!

How true...how long was the Ike thread?

[srainhoutx]

...how long was the Ike thread?

Nearly 500 pages.

[Andrew]

...how long was the Ike thread?

Nearly 500 pages.

That was countless days and nights of posting model runs, wobbles and storm reports. It was bad.

[srainhoutx]

HGX thoughts regarding next week...

THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY...WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY WITH A
DEVELOPING 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW VAST TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A FROPA TUESDAY NIGHT ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THINK A FASTER SOLUTION IS WARRANTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE AIRMASS...AND LEANED TOWARD AN EARLY WEDNESDAY FROPA SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SE TX STILL EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATIFORM PRECIP DEVELOPING. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY OVER OUR NRN ZONES...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE ALL THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT. OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE WILL BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING
THIS FRONT. MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -6C OVER THE
AREA. A HARD FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT

[Baseballdude2915]

...how long was the Ike thread?

Nearly 500 pages.

That was countless days and nights of posting model runs, wobbles and storm reports. It was bad.

I remember seeing like 10-20 pages an hour or so right up to the event. This place was a mad house.
I bet if Febuary has something exciting left, we can add up the two threads and may give Ike thread a run.


Oh the z.forum days. LOL

[sleetstorm]

32ºF is the current temperature here in Baytown.

[sambucol]

Baytown Weather Bug on N Main at the GCCISD operations location is reading 30. It's been going back and forth between 29 and 30 for the last 2 hours. Cloudy, too.

[JulieC]

Yeah I am only kidding about Frank I do miss the weather men of days gone by, Dr. Neil, Ed Brandon, and my favorite was Doug Johnson. David Paul is my favorite today Sorry I digress from the topic at hand

My favorite was Doug Johnson too. I grew up watching him.