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I'm grateful we're only 5 days out on this potential event. It seemed we discussed the current event for an eternity or over 360 pages. I think that took a toll on this forum, and caused some tension toward the end of the event. We will have the Super Bowl as a welcome distraction to at least give us a day off and enjoy our Sunday and i recommend we all do just that. Then we can dive back in Monday.

GFS suggests another 36hr period of near or well below freezing from next Tuesday night to noon Thursday. GFS has our temps in the low 20s next Thu. Euro is very similar with 2m temps 23-24 deg. GFS does indicate some precip in the cold air, but I think it's clear that we can't tell what kind of precip (freezing rain, sleet or snow) from a few hours out much less 5 days out (in close situations).

Yep. Ready for another roll of the weather dice. Onward to the potential Winter weather/Arcticblast threat for next week

sambucol wrote:Well, since David Paul mentioned sleet on his forecast today, does it look like we could get some snow from this next Arctic air this time?

If anyone says snow for next week, I'm not believing it.


Although, out of all the weather folks on tv in Houston, he is the one I am most likely to believe. He is the best in Houston in my opinion.

can't believe we are going to be doing this again, for some reason I can't get excited but lets see how this transforms, can anyone tell me what the models looked like before they started agreeing on last night and today? Our outcome didn't end up the same as the forecast but it would be nice to know, maybe this one really could turn to something

I am going to be tracking this one with you guys this week. Can I get some opinions from some experienced members or pro mets? With this past ice storm that hit today, and another possible winter storm event on wednesday, with temps below freezing possible ahead of the front...will this basically just cripple us even more? I am wondering if things will get worse (I mean seriously, sand trucks sliding and flipping over on I-10!?) or if it will be a reduced severity if warming occurs before the next storm. Thanks.

Looks like our melting is over for today. Cloudy and 26.4f here at the house and no more drips from the roofs or trees. Wxman you just made my day!!! NOT!!!!

wxman666 wrote:I am going to be tracking this one with you guys this week. Can I get some opinions from some experienced members or pro mets? With this past ice storm that hit today, and another possible winter storm event on wednesday, with temps below freezing possible ahead of the front...will this basically just cripple us even more? I am wondering if things will get worse (I mean seriously, sand trucks sliding and flipping over on I-10!?) or if it will be a reduced severity if warming occurs before the next storm. Thanks.

oh yeah, I was going to ask earlier before I took a nap, can one of the mets explain what went wrong with this system? The track of the ULL and stuff, I think it would help me learn thanks

[quote="helloitsb"] for some reason I can't get excited...


Me neither. I hate disappointment. Now I had to have a day off from school, which is pointless with ice and no snow. Katy ISD has already said there is a makeup day that will ruin the four day weekend we orignally had on the Katy schedule. Is there anything good about this because I can't think of anything. GRRRR

Katy ISD has already said there is a makeup day that will ruin the four day weekend we orignally had on the Katy schedule. Is there anything good about this because I can't think of anything. GRRRR

Thankfully, we didn't put kids in buses on icy roads this morning. That could have been tragic, and avoiding a potential tragedy, especially when children are involved, is worth having to make up a school day.

wxman666 wrote:I am going to be tracking this one with you guys this week. Can I get some opinions from some experienced members or pro mets? With this past ice storm that hit today, and another possible winter storm event on wednesday, with temps below freezing possible ahead of the front...will this basically just cripple us even more? I am wondering if things will get worse (I mean seriously, sand trucks sliding and flipping over on I-10!?) or if it will be a reduced severity if warming occurs before the next storm. Thanks.

We should have enough warming between now and then to keep it from crippling us more, meaning all the ice should be gone by then. However, I am wondering about the temps. Wxman, with the solid snowpack just to our North is it possible/probable the temps might be overdone(too high)for the next one? IIRC the models never do seem to handle the temps well for these events.

JulieC wrote:

helloitsb wrote: for some reason I can't get excited...

Me neither. I hate disappointment. Now I had to have a day off from school, which is pointless with ice and no snow. Katy ISD has already said there is a makeup day that will ruin the four day weekend we orignally had on the Katy schedule. Is there anything good about this because I can't think of anything. GRRRR

Klein ISD hasn't announced anything, honestly I wouldn't mind making up a day if we got a GOOD snow storm but for this it seems like a waste, bad thing is we only have 2 days left on the schedule that could be make ups, one of them being the day after school gets out that wouldn't be cool

Ya know, once the pattern is in place it seems like you get two or threes shots as the storms ride the rollercoaster so to speak. They may veer a little left or right or the temps may fluctuate, but the actual pattern stays the same. This time the pattern shifted at the end just a little. But 100 mile shift can change what you get. My question, albeit lengthy, is which model handled this one the best, and will that be an indicator of what to watch for 5 days out?

helloitsb wrote:

wxman666 wrote:I am going to be tracking this one with you guys this week. Can I get some opinions from some experienced members or pro mets? With this past ice storm that hit today, and another possible winter storm event on wednesday, with temps below freezing possible ahead of the front...will this basically just cripple us even more? I am wondering if things will get worse (I mean seriously, sand trucks sliding and flipping over on I-10!?) or if it will be a reduced severity if warming occurs before the next storm. Thanks.

oh yeah, I was going to ask earlier before I took a nap, can one of the mets explain what went wrong with this system? The track of the ULL and stuff, I think it would help me learn thanks

Part of the problem with this one was, as posted earlier, not having enough sounding info to see the warm layer that was over our area. Based on the info available and interpretation required due to no direct Hou/Gal data the original predictions would seem to have been correct. Obviously they weren't, but it wasn't just a "bust" for a few mets, it was a "bust" for most mets in SE TX. JMHO. Pro mets feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

sambucol wrote:

Katy ISD has already said there is a makeup day that will ruin the four day weekend we orignally had on the Katy schedule. Is there anything good about this because I can't think of anything. GRRRR

Same here in our district. Thankfully, we didn't put kids in buses on icy roads this morning. That could have been tragic, and avoiding a potential tragedy, especially when children are involved, is worth having to make up a school day.

That is true. I just wish they had chosen a different day for the makeup day.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

ticka1 wrote:Only 5 days lead time for this event!!! Channel 11 has this in their forecast and channel 2 not so much.

Channel 11 has the degreed mets. I suspect even without a BS degree, however, Frank can read the local AFD and look at models, after ballpark twenty years doing this, and, especially if the Euro looks anything like the GFS, winter weather possibilities may be mentioned in the evening forecast on KPRC.

He has to tend to his hair.

sobeit wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

ticka1 wrote:Only 5 days lead time for this event!!! Channel 11 has this in their forecast and channel 2 not so much.

Channel 11 has the degreed mets. I suspect even without a BS degree, however, Frank can read the local AFD and look at models, after ballpark twenty years doing this, and, especially if the Euro looks anything like the GFS, winter weather possibilities may be mentioned in the evening forecast on KPRC.

He has to tend to his hair.

ROFL!!! Now that is funny! I like Frank though. After Ike, a lot of his focus was on Galveston and that was helpful for those of us who have property there and couldn't get there to see it. I was very grateful to him for that, so I won't knock Frank.

Yeah I am only kidding about Frank I do miss the weather men of days gone by, Dr. Neil, Ed Brandon, and my favorite was Doug Johnson. David Paul is my favorite today Sorry I digress from the topic at hand

clute28 wrote:Is anyone really ready to do this all over again..be it only 5 days away this time..I guess put on another pot of coffee and saddle up for a week of guessing

I was thinking the same thing. Not sure I can get back in line for that rollercoaster! LOL!

Come back Doc.....!!! I do like David Paul and Gene Norman ( although the Norman Number...sigh). I also liked Greg Fischel on WRAL CBS TV Channel 5 in Raleigh, North Carolina. Great meteorologist from Penn State. I digress. Txagwxman on Storm 2K is saying the 850MB temps are still little too high, as of now.


Rain Houston Wed...850 mb temps too warm...