February Ends Warm and Dry

[wxman57]

GFS brings the front through around noon Wednesday with temps falling steadily afterward. Precip ends with the frontal passage (no post-frontal disturbance moving by). Relatively light freezes Thu/Fri (upper 20s) followed by a steady warm-up that could get our temps into the 80 degree range by Valentine's Day or shortly after.

Note that the Euro drives the 850mb freezing line all the way north into central Canada by day 10 as a deep upper low develops off the NW U.S. Coast. Big snow melt across the Plains after this week. Winter appears to be coming to an end for us.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z suite has started. There were some issues with balloon data from Shreveport and Lake Charles...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Mon Feb 7 13:37:50 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 071337
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1333Z MON FEB 07 2011
THE 12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME.
OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...32
CANADIAN...69 CONUS...13 MEXICAN...AND 8 CARIBBEAN STATIONS.
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
CHS/72208 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142.
SHV/72248 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142.
PPG/91765 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142.
MZT/76458 - CODE 10159.
YVP/71906 - SHORT TO 755 MB.
SJU/78526 - PURGED ALL MOISTURE DATA...SPURIOUS VALUES.
MFR/72597 - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 758-731 MB...WET BULB EFFECT.
LCH/72240 - PURGED TEMP/MOISTURE AT 249 MB...SUPER ADIABATIC.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
THE ONGOING CWD WILL EXPIRE AT 17Z TODAY. NCEP DOES NOT ANTICIPATE
AN ADDITIONAL CWD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
$$
HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[texoz]

GFS brings the front through around noon Wednesday with temps falling steadily afterward. Precip ends with the frontal passage (no post-frontal disturbance moving by). Relatively light freezes Thu/Fri (upper 20s) followed by a steady warm-up that could get our temps into the 80 degree range by Valentine's Day or shortly after.

Note that the Euro drives the 850mb freezing line all the way north into central Canada by day 10 as a deep upper low develops off the NW U.S. Coast. Big snow melt across the Plains after this week. Winter appears to be coming to an end for us.

And we turn our gaze eastward toward the Atlantic, Carrib, and GOM.

[Andrew]

GFS brings the front through around noon Wednesday with temps falling steadily afterward. Precip ends with the frontal passage (no post-frontal disturbance moving by). Relatively light freezes Thu/Fri (upper 20s) followed by a steady warm-up that could get our temps into the 80 degree range by Valentine's Day or shortly after.

Note that the Euro drives the 850mb freezing line all the way north into central Canada by day 10 as a deep upper low develops off the NW U.S. Coast. Big snow melt across the Plains after this week. Winter appears to be coming to an end for us.

And we turn our gaze eastward toward the Atlantic, Carrib, and GOM.

That is still many months aways. We now look at thunderstorm season.

[srainhoutx]

I know folks are watching and waiting to see what the 12Z suite offers today. I personally, will be awaiting the entire suite from the NCEP and Foreign guidance as well as ensembles before passing any judgment of the various outputs. There appears to be a bit too much spread in the data at this time which gives one pause with regards to the sensible weather we may expect mid week. Of course, those are just my thoughts.

[srainhoutx]

Our friends at Impact Weather have updated their video...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather

[srainhoutx]

I know folks are watching and waiting to see what the 12Z suite offers today. I personally, will be awaiting the entire suite from the NCEP and Foreign guidance as well as ensembles before passing any judgment of the various outputs. There appears to be a bit too much spread in the data at this time which gives one pause with regards to the sensible weather we may expect mid week. Of course, those are just my thoughts.

HPC:

...WAVE CROSSING THE GULF STATES DAY 3...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: PENDING 12Z/07 ECMWF

THE NAM IS LESS SUPPRESSED WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THAN THE
00Z/07 ECMWF...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPRESSED. THE GEM
GLOBAL IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF...WITH THE UKMET CLOSEST TO THE
NAM. CONSIDERING THE TRENDING OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS ENERGETIC
FEATURE...WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z/07 TO MAKE A CALL HERE.

[radiogirltx]

I am not done with Winter. I still want to see how much more Winter weather storms that SE Texas will get before all is said and done for Winter 2010-2011. The first day of Spring this year is the 20th of March in case any of you did not know. I am not going to be done with Winter until sometime next month.

I would be perfectly fine with temps getting back into the 90's tomm. I mean I enjoy extreme weather but I enjoy summer so much more. One day Key West here I come.

Oh man, that is my fav rock on earth! I Was just listening to US1 radio online this morning! Hubby and I really want to retire there. Have fun, and drink a frozen mudslide at the Flying Monkey for me!!!

[sambucol]

Might we get freezing drizzle further south than presently forecasted?

[srainhoutx]

Alright, the 12Z Operational runs are complete through hour 72, except for the UKMET 144 hour run that will be complete after 1:00PM. The general trends today have been a bit of a slightly suppressed track of the Upper Level disturbance. This is a rather progressive (fast moving) feature and there has been a lot of disagreement regarding exactly when the front will arrive creating the discussions regarding any wintry weather chances for Central/SE TX. As I posted above the trends today were moving toward the 00Z Euro solution. The 12Z Euro has changed little, but does suggest a quick end to precip chances after the front passes. The 12Z GFS ensembles are rather quick with the frontal passage, suggesting an arrival in the Central TX area in the very early morning hours and likely off the Coast by mid day Wednesday, +/- a couple of hours. The NAM is an outlier. That solution is not in agreement with other guidance, except for the 72 hour UKMET. We'll see what the Canadian and Euro ensembles suggest later in the afternoon, but my hunch is the HPC will side with the Euro, since it has held ground (perhaps a bit slower with the front than the 00Z) and the trends are moving in that direction. We will see.

[wxman57]

Might we get freezing drizzle further south than presently forecasted?

I don't see anything to indicate any threat of freezing or frozen precip here on Wednesday. Just a bit of cold rain as the precip ends not too long after frontal passage. Slim chance of a few sleet pellets at most as the precip ends, but surface temps should be above freezing during the precip.

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z NAM and the 15Z SREF are now faster with the frontal arrival and even suggest some post frontal moisture across Central/SE TX.

[Andrew]

The 18Z NAM and the 15Z SREF are now faster with the frontal arrival and even suggest some post frontal moisture across Central/SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

Austin/San Antonio afternoon update for redneckweather who will be traveling and our Central TX folks...yikes...

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MIXED BAG. FORECAST ISSUES WEDNESDAY ARE PCPN
TYPE...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. ATTM THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING THE COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE NORTHEAST
OF OUR REGION SO THE PCPN WILL BE SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FRONT. AS AFTERNOON TEMPS FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST
COUNTIES THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND SLEET. WE EXPECT THE PCPN TO END BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR BEFORE NOON WITH FALLING
TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

[srainhoutx]

HGX sticking with the chance of freezing precip in Northern zones as well with little to no accumulation...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
336 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY USHERING RETURN
OF ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY WEST OF CWFA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. BASE OF VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDING TO TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A VORT MAX
MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS INDICATED TO
PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS NW ZONES LATE MORNING/MID DAY AND REACHING THE COAST LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RAPIDLY DROP DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MODELS
INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES SW PORTIONS OF CWFA
AHEAD OF FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS BARELY APPROACHING 60 DEGREES SW
PORTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT WEDNESDAY AND ONLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD.
REST OF REGION AHEAD OF FRONT RUNNING IN THE 40S AND 50S
(DEWPOINTS). SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN (WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFTING) WEDNESDAY. AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE LIFTED INDEX VALUES
REMAINING POSITIVE. WE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SLEET (LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS) FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IT SHOULD DRY QUICKLY AT MID/UPPER LEVELS DURING MID AND
LATE EVENING HOURS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE MID 20S NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CWFA WITH
REMAINDER OF CWFA PROBABLY HAVING MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. WARMING TREND AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED THEN. MODELS INDICATE A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NEXT WEEK. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE
LACK OF MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT.

[sleetstorm]

This is, needless to say, the heart of Winter, which is from the last two weeks of January to the first two weeks of February. I understand Ed Mahmouds' way of thinking that Winter is climatologically when storm systems typically start to bring in much icy temperatures, wind chills, and frozen precipitation to this nation. My way of thinking when Winter begins is when the sun is the lowest in the sky on the 21st or 22nd of December to the last day of Winter which this year is going to be on the 19th of March.

[wxman57]

18Z NAM ends the precip very shortly after 3PM Wednesday (front moves through around noon), as is evident by the .02" precip falling between 3pm and 6pm and the peak precip (.22") falling between noon and 3pm. At that time, it forecasts a surface temperature of about 36-37F at IAH. That's too high for freezing rain. NAM projections of the 850mb (5000ft) temperature are about 40-41F at the time the precip ends, suggesting cold rain.



The 18Z GFS is a tad cooler than the 18Z NAM and with a bit less precip. Front moves through around 6am. It also has 850mb temps well above freezing, but a bit cooler than the NAM at 37-38F. Precip ends between noon and 3pm with the temperature at the surface of 34-36F. That's also a cold light rain forecast for as the precip ends. Wednesday's airmass in general looks a good bit warmer than last week's.

[wxman666]

Weren't the models pretty warm a couple days before the onset of last week's event, making everyone's forecast vacillate between rain, sleet and snow? Then we got freezing rain hours after the time the models predicted it would begin?

[Baseballdude2915]

Weren't the models pretty warm a couple days before the onset of last week's event, making everyone's forecast vacillate between rain, sleet and snow? Then we got freezing rain hours after the time the models predicted it would begin?

Hey wxman666, did you end up seeing snow during last weeks event? I see your signature and was wondering if it verified.

[wxman57]

Weren't the models pretty warm a couple days before the onset of last week's event, making everyone's forecast vacillate between rain, sleet and snow? Then we got freezing rain hours after the time the models predicted it would begin?

No, the models were all in very good agreement that the surface temperature would be well below freezing. The question was the temperature profile aloft and whether it would result in a period of sleet before the snow. But all models did indicate that the vertical profile would support snow.