February Ends Warm and Dry

[JulieC]

32ºF is the current temperature here in Baytown.

Hasn't budged from 27 degrees here all day long.

[wxman57]

Almost 33 deg here in Westbury. Was a bit over 33 earlier when the sun briefly appeared.

Got an idea to improve my meteograms. I added in the projected 850mb temperature (dotted red line). Now you can see if the 850mb temp is below freezing during precip. It shows the current forecast 850mb temp is well above freezing next Wednesday morning during the light precip:



And, to give you all a little hope about the future of February, here's the extended part of the 12Z GFS. Keep in mind the temps are valid 6am and 6pm. Actual highs will be greater than the 6pm temps by maybe 4-6 deg.

[vci_guy2003]

Man, they couldn't even get the forecast right today. Temps were supposed to be above freezing at 9am today. It never got there. Yikes.

Imagine how awesome it would have been had it snowed 5 inches last night.

[vci_guy2003]

Nobody dare speak of snow again.. even if it's a certainty, I bet the local mets will be biting their lips not to utter the word.

[vbhoutex]

I am going to be tracking this one with you guys this week. Can I get some opinions from some experienced members or pro mets? With this past ice storm that hit today, and another possible winter storm event on wednesday, with temps below freezing possible ahead of the front...will this basically just cripple us even more? I am wondering if things will get worse (I mean seriously, sand trucks sliding and flipping over on I-10!?) or if it will be a reduced severity if warming occurs before the next storm. Thanks.

oh yeah, I was going to ask earlier before I took a nap, can one of the mets explain what went wrong with this system? The track of the ULL and stuff, I think it would help me learn thanks

Part of the problem with this one was, as posted earlier, not having enough sounding info to see the warm layer that was over our area. Based on the info available and interpretation required due to no direct Hou/Gal data the original predictions would seem to have been correct. Obviously they weren't, but it wasn't just a "bust" for a few mets, it was a "bust" for most mets in SE TX. JMHO. Pro mets feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

I have been talking some with Larry Cosgrove on FB about this. He is the only met I know who got this right about no snow. I mentioned the sounding thing and he said that is not the problem, that there is enough data available without the Hou/Gal non-existant soundings. The 850 mb majic line for snow in this area(about -4c) was never really far enough South to give a good solid call for snow in Houston according to him. Do any of the pro-mets agree with this? I seem to remember that what he is saying is correct, at least in the later model runs, but in my desire for snow I think I ignored it. So I pose the question to the mets here. What did almost all the mets in our area miss? If Larry is correct in his assessment, why did so many not catch it and/or did they ignore it getting caught up in the wish for the big story(hype?)?

[txsnowmaker]

Channel 11 again mentioning the possibility of "wintry weather" (precip) next week in the Wednesday timeframe.

[txsnowmaker]

Tim Heller on weather here next Wednesday: "something to keep your eyes on"

[BiggieSmalls]

Is this event setting up to trend colder and colder with each passing day? Seems like thats what happened last week....

[srainhoutx]

Is this event setting up to trend colder and colder with each passing day? Seems like thats what happened last week....

There is little doubt that we have a snow cover to our N, now.

[txsnowmaker]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

[Andrew]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

I might. I am so burned out right now I will see what I can do.

[ticka1]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

Not me - I stayed up all night last night with little cat naps during the event. Come Monday- probably so!

[txsnowmaker]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

I might. I am so burned out right now I will see what I can do.

I understand. If you happen to post I am sure others will be checking in from time to time. Well, at least I will!

[txsnowmaker]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

Not me - I stayed up all night last night with little cat naps during the event. Come Monday- probably so!

I hear ya. Interesting that these arctic blasts have been progressively colder. Hard to imagine the next one being even more so, but as srain said, there is lots of snow pack above us now.

[sambucol]

Not me - I stayed up all night last night with little cat naps during the event. Come Monday- probably so!

Oh, come on, Ticka! I'll stay up with you!

[Andrew]

One thing to keep an eye on is Canada. As of now it is warmer than here.

[helloitsb]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

I may even though I don't want to get caught up in this one, I kind of want it to just happen without me knowing the guidelines of the system and what not

[wxman57]

I have been talking some with Larry Cosgrove on FB about this. He is the only met I know who got this right about no snow. I mentioned the sounding thing and he said that is not the problem, that there is enough data available without the Hou/Gal non-existent soundings. The 850 mb majic line for snow in this area(about -4c) was never really far enough South to give a good solid call for snow in Houston according to him. Do any of the pro-mets agree with this? I seem to remember that what he is saying is correct, at least in the later model runs, but in my desire for snow I think I ignored it. So I pose the question to the mets here. What did almost all the mets in our area miss? If Larry is correct in his assessment, why did so many not catch it and/or did they ignore it getting caught up in the wish for the big story(hype?)?

That 850mb -4C rule is a general rule of thumb to use when you don't really know the atmospheric profile. If the 850mb temp is -4C or colder, then the vertical profile is most probably cold enough to support snow. But it doesn't work the other way around. That is, it can certainly snow with the 850mb temp warmer than -4C. It depends on the temperature of the rest of the atmosphere above and below 850mb (5000 ft).

For this event, the 850mb temp was not at -4C, but that doesn't mean it could not have snowed. The problem was a warm layer above the 850mb layer. If that warm layer hadn't been there, and if the 850mb temp was the same as it was last night, then it would have snowed.

That's where a vertical sounding would have really helped this week, and where I disagree with Larry Cosgrove. We had to guess what the vertical profile was. Heck, we even had to guess what the 850mb temperature was, as it's not measured over Houston. So it was mostly a coincidence that the 850mb -4C rule of thumb worked with this event.

[wxman57]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

I'm not sure what the point of staying up to 12:30am would be to wait for a model that may not have the right solution about next week for another 5 days.

[snowman65]

Call me crazy but it is SNOWING at my house right now!!!!:)...not heavy but it's sticking even..