February Ends Warm and Dry

[skidog38]

i go to "the weather channel" wednesday night forecast radar(map)(night) and what do i see?

[skidog38]

snow Wednesday night

[Andrew]

snow Wednesday night

Yea but it is the weather channel and usually when they say sunny expect rain. GFS and NAM have come in a bit faster with the cold weather and a tad slower with the low.

[skidog38]

snow Wednesday night

Yea but it is the weather channel and usually when they say sunny expect rain. GFS and NAM have come in a bit faster with the cold weather and a tad slower with the low.

say it

[srainhoutx]

Good Morning. Things are becoming a bit interesting...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
454 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SE TX ON WEDNESDAY...


A LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP A COLD WEATHER PATTERN OVER SE TX
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEDNESDAY.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS IN EARNEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ON
WEDNESDAY GOOD RAIN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIKELY. THE
PROBLEM WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS BUFR MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE BOTH INDICATING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MIX AS WRAP AROUND OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES ARE NOT LIKELY
AS IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE OF THE
SOUNDINGS. AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY SEE A WINTRY MIX ARE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON. FELT
FAIRLY CONFIDENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.
SINCE THIS EVENT IS IN THE LATE 3RD AND EARLY 4TH PERIODS AND
BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...WILL NOT ISSUE A
WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL ADDRESS DETAILS ON THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE. THIS IS BORNE OUT BY THE COLDER RUN OF THE 06Z MAV
GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN FOR CLL. FELT THAT THE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN OCCUR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


For our neighbors in Central TX:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
401 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-082215-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
401 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...COLDER WEATHER COMING WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING A RETURN OF WINTER LIKE
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE COLD RAIN COULD BE MIXED WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ADJACENT
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AREA. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR BANDERA TO
NEAR AUSTIN TO NEAR LEXINGTON IN LEE COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...MAINLY ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND OTHER EXPOSED ELEVATED SURFACES. SOUTH OF
THIS LINE...A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY VERY BRIEFLY MIX IN FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST. THE BRISK NORTH
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ADD TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...WITH A HARD FREEZE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COLD
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND CHILLY AFTERNOON
HIGHS. A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND.

RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROVIDE PROTECTION FOR TENDER
PLANTS...PIPES...AND OUTDOOR PETS FOR FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

And for our neighbors to the E:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
421 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-082100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
421 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAKES REGION
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR...OR ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO OPELOUSAS. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

[wxman57]

Not much change in the models. 850mb temps remain well above freezing (39-45 deg) through the duration of the precip Wednesday. Surface temps remain above freezing as well (36-37 deg), according to the GFS/NAM. So it looks like just a bit of cold rain as the precip ends Wednesday.





In contrast, this was the GFS forecast from midnight on February 2nd, just before last Friday's freezing rain event. Look how much colder the air was forecast to be:

[wxman666]

Weren't the models pretty warm a couple days before the onset of last week's event, making everyone's forecast vacillate between rain, sleet and snow? Then we got freezing rain hours after the time the models predicted it would begin?

Hey wxman666, did you end up seeing snow during last weeks event? I see your signature and was wondering if it verified.

There was a very minor amount mixed in with the ice, but not much. I think by Thursday night, we were pretty well expecting ice....with a dusting of snow slightly possible. I need to change that signature, lol.

[wxman666]

Weren't the models pretty warm a couple days before the onset of last week's event, making everyone's forecast vacillate between rain, sleet and snow? Then we got freezing rain hours after the time the models predicted it would begin?

No, the models were all in very good agreement that the surface temperature would be well below freezing. The question was the temperature profile aloft and whether it would result in a period of sleet before the snow. But all models did indicate that the vertical profile would support snow.

Oh, okay.

[srainhoutx]

I've noticed the past couple of hours the front seems to be a bit ahead of schedule and temps are colder than guidance had suggested it would be behind that front...

[srainhoutx]

SPC:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS TX/LOWER MS
VALLEY TOWARD THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

...GULF COAST/ARKLATEX...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AN EARLY DAY WARM
ADVECTION REGIME MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...WHILE A MODIFIED WARM SECTOR OTHERWISE
DEVELOPS IMMEDIATELY INLAND ACROSS THE TX COAST AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND/OR ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN LA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY AND/OR ALONG THE TX
COAST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE COAST...BUT OVERALL TSTM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RATHER MARGINAL ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE LIMITED INLAND PENETRATION OF AN APPRECIABLE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR...COLOCATED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AT
THAT...WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT IN SPITE OF A RELATIVELY
STRONG/FAVORABLE WIND FIELD ATTENDANT TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.

..GUYER.. 02/08/2011

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM suggests a wet morning commute for Wednesday...

[srainhoutx]

The NAM also suggests some wrap around moisture, post frontal in nature for the Northern areas, as the upper air disturbance heads E.

[redneckweather]

Just checking in before I hit the road westward in about 30 minutes. I appreciate the updates y'all! I won't be back till Sunday which is when we should start to see a pretty steady warm up going into next week. This is looking that is COULD be our final big blow of cold air from the great north. With that said, it been a fun and wild ride going back to mid-January and I can't wait to do it all again next fall/winter season!

[srainhoutx]

Safe travels, redneckweather!

[wxman666]

Just checking in before I hit the road westward in about 30 minutes. I appreciate the updates y'all! I won't be back till Sunday which is when we should start to see a pretty steady warm up going into next week. This is looking that is COULD be our final big blow of cold air from the great north. With that said, it been a fun and wild ride going back to mid-January and I can't wait to do it all again next fall/winter season!

Hope your trip goes well...take a NOAA Wx Radio with you!

[wxman666]

Srain...based on the latest model guidance, what does the surface temp look like after the front blows through tomorrow afternoon?

[srainhoutx]

Srain...based on the latest model guidance, what does the surface temp look like after the front blows through tomorrow afternoon?

Let's see what all the data suggests from the 12Z runs before we speculate too much. That said, I suspect temps will fall quickly into the 30's behind the front. I also would not be surprised to see some near 20 degree readings in the colder spots Thursday night/Friday morning.

[srainhoutx]

Just another lovely day in Dalhart in the Panhandle. 13F with gusting N winds to 40 mph and light snow.

[srainhoutx]

10F in Dalhart, TX with -SN. N winds 43 mph gusting to 55 mph...

ob KDHT 081524Z AUTO 36037G48KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC016 M12/M16 A3002 RMK AO2 PK WND 36048/1524 UPB06E14SNE06B14 P0000

[srainhoutx]

Our friends at Impact Weather have updated their video...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather