February Ends Warm and Dry

[wxman57]

Might we get freezing drizzle further south than presently forecasted?

I don't see anything to indicate any threat of freezing or frozen precip here on Wednesday. Just a bit of cold rain as the precip ends not too long after frontal passage. Slim chance of a few sleet pellets at most as the precip ends, but surface temps should be above freezing during the precip.

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z NAM and the 15Z SREF are now faster with the frontal arrival and even suggest some post frontal moisture across Central/SE TX.

[Andrew]

The 18Z NAM and the 15Z SREF are now faster with the frontal arrival and even suggest some post frontal moisture across Central/SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

Austin/San Antonio afternoon update for redneckweather who will be traveling and our Central TX folks...yikes...

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MIXED BAG. FORECAST ISSUES WEDNESDAY ARE PCPN
TYPE...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. ATTM THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING THE COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE NORTHEAST
OF OUR REGION SO THE PCPN WILL BE SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FRONT. AS AFTERNOON TEMPS FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST
COUNTIES THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND SLEET. WE EXPECT THE PCPN TO END BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR BEFORE NOON WITH FALLING
TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

[srainhoutx]

HGX sticking with the chance of freezing precip in Northern zones as well with little to no accumulation...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
336 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY USHERING RETURN
OF ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY WEST OF CWFA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. BASE OF VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDING TO TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A VORT MAX
MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS INDICATED TO
PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS NW ZONES LATE MORNING/MID DAY AND REACHING THE COAST LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO RAPIDLY DROP DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MODELS
INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES SW PORTIONS OF CWFA
AHEAD OF FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS BARELY APPROACHING 60 DEGREES SW
PORTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT WEDNESDAY AND ONLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD.
REST OF REGION AHEAD OF FRONT RUNNING IN THE 40S AND 50S
(DEWPOINTS). SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN (WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFTING) WEDNESDAY. AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE LIFTED INDEX VALUES
REMAINING POSITIVE. WE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SLEET (LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS) FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. IT SHOULD DRY QUICKLY AT MID/UPPER LEVELS DURING MID AND
LATE EVENING HOURS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE MID 20S NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CWFA WITH
REMAINDER OF CWFA PROBABLY HAVING MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. WARMING TREND AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED THEN. MODELS INDICATE A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NEXT WEEK. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE
LACK OF MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT.

[sleetstorm]

This is, needless to say, the heart of Winter, which is from the last two weeks of January to the first two weeks of February. I understand Ed Mahmouds' way of thinking that Winter is climatologically when storm systems typically start to bring in much icy temperatures, wind chills, and frozen precipitation to this nation. My way of thinking when Winter begins is when the sun is the lowest in the sky on the 21st or 22nd of December to the last day of Winter which this year is going to be on the 19th of March.

[wxman57]

18Z NAM ends the precip very shortly after 3PM Wednesday (front moves through around noon), as is evident by the .02" precip falling between 3pm and 6pm and the peak precip (.22") falling between noon and 3pm. At that time, it forecasts a surface temperature of about 36-37F at IAH. That's too high for freezing rain. NAM projections of the 850mb (5000ft) temperature are about 40-41F at the time the precip ends, suggesting cold rain.



The 18Z GFS is a tad cooler than the 18Z NAM and with a bit less precip. Front moves through around 6am. It also has 850mb temps well above freezing, but a bit cooler than the NAM at 37-38F. Precip ends between noon and 3pm with the temperature at the surface of 34-36F. That's also a cold light rain forecast for as the precip ends. Wednesday's airmass in general looks a good bit warmer than last week's.

[wxman666]

Weren't the models pretty warm a couple days before the onset of last week's event, making everyone's forecast vacillate between rain, sleet and snow? Then we got freezing rain hours after the time the models predicted it would begin?

[Baseballdude2915]

Weren't the models pretty warm a couple days before the onset of last week's event, making everyone's forecast vacillate between rain, sleet and snow? Then we got freezing rain hours after the time the models predicted it would begin?

Hey wxman666, did you end up seeing snow during last weeks event? I see your signature and was wondering if it verified.

[wxman57]

Weren't the models pretty warm a couple days before the onset of last week's event, making everyone's forecast vacillate between rain, sleet and snow? Then we got freezing rain hours after the time the models predicted it would begin?

No, the models were all in very good agreement that the surface temperature would be well below freezing. The question was the temperature profile aloft and whether it would result in a period of sleet before the snow. But all models did indicate that the vertical profile would support snow.

[skidog38]

i go to "the weather channel" wednesday night forecast radar(map)(night) and what do i see?

[skidog38]

snow Wednesday night

[Andrew]

snow Wednesday night

Yea but it is the weather channel and usually when they say sunny expect rain. GFS and NAM have come in a bit faster with the cold weather and a tad slower with the low.

[skidog38]

snow Wednesday night

Yea but it is the weather channel and usually when they say sunny expect rain. GFS and NAM have come in a bit faster with the cold weather and a tad slower with the low.

say it

[srainhoutx]

Good Morning. Things are becoming a bit interesting...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
454 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SE TX ON WEDNESDAY...


A LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP A COLD WEATHER PATTERN OVER SE TX
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEDNESDAY.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS IN EARNEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ON
WEDNESDAY GOOD RAIN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS LIKELY. THE
PROBLEM WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS BUFR MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE BOTH INDICATING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MIX AS WRAP AROUND OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES ARE NOT LIKELY
AS IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE OF THE
SOUNDINGS. AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY SEE A WINTRY MIX ARE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON. FELT
FAIRLY CONFIDENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.
SINCE THIS EVENT IS IN THE LATE 3RD AND EARLY 4TH PERIODS AND
BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...WILL NOT ISSUE A
WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL ADDRESS DETAILS ON THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE. THIS IS BORNE OUT BY THE COLDER RUN OF THE 06Z MAV
GUIDANCE AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN FOR CLL. FELT THAT THE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN OCCUR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


For our neighbors in Central TX:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
401 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-082215-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
401 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...COLDER WEATHER COMING WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING A RETURN OF WINTER LIKE
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE COLD RAIN COULD BE MIXED WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ADJACENT
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AREA. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR BANDERA TO
NEAR AUSTIN TO NEAR LEXINGTON IN LEE COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...MAINLY ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND OTHER EXPOSED ELEVATED SURFACES. SOUTH OF
THIS LINE...A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY VERY BRIEFLY MIX IN FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST. THE BRISK NORTH
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ADD TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...WITH A HARD FREEZE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COLD
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND CHILLY AFTERNOON
HIGHS. A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND.

RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROVIDE PROTECTION FOR TENDER
PLANTS...PIPES...AND OUTDOOR PETS FOR FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

And for our neighbors to the E:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
421 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-082100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
421 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAKES REGION
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR...OR ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO OPELOUSAS. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

[wxman57]

Not much change in the models. 850mb temps remain well above freezing (39-45 deg) through the duration of the precip Wednesday. Surface temps remain above freezing as well (36-37 deg), according to the GFS/NAM. So it looks like just a bit of cold rain as the precip ends Wednesday.





In contrast, this was the GFS forecast from midnight on February 2nd, just before last Friday's freezing rain event. Look how much colder the air was forecast to be:

[wxman666]

Weren't the models pretty warm a couple days before the onset of last week's event, making everyone's forecast vacillate between rain, sleet and snow? Then we got freezing rain hours after the time the models predicted it would begin?

Hey wxman666, did you end up seeing snow during last weeks event? I see your signature and was wondering if it verified.

There was a very minor amount mixed in with the ice, but not much. I think by Thursday night, we were pretty well expecting ice....with a dusting of snow slightly possible. I need to change that signature, lol.

[wxman666]

Weren't the models pretty warm a couple days before the onset of last week's event, making everyone's forecast vacillate between rain, sleet and snow? Then we got freezing rain hours after the time the models predicted it would begin?

No, the models were all in very good agreement that the surface temperature would be well below freezing. The question was the temperature profile aloft and whether it would result in a period of sleet before the snow. But all models did indicate that the vertical profile would support snow.

Oh, okay.

[srainhoutx]

I've noticed the past couple of hours the front seems to be a bit ahead of schedule and temps are colder than guidance had suggested it would be behind that front...

[srainhoutx]

SPC:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS TX/LOWER MS
VALLEY TOWARD THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

...GULF COAST/ARKLATEX...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AN EARLY DAY WARM
ADVECTION REGIME MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...WHILE A MODIFIED WARM SECTOR OTHERWISE
DEVELOPS IMMEDIATELY INLAND ACROSS THE TX COAST AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND/OR ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN LA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY AND/OR ALONG THE TX
COAST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE COAST...BUT OVERALL TSTM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RATHER MARGINAL ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE LIMITED INLAND PENETRATION OF AN APPRECIABLE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR...COLOCATED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AT
THAT...WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT IN SPITE OF A RELATIVELY
STRONG/FAVORABLE WIND FIELD ATTENDANT TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.

..GUYER.. 02/08/2011