February Ends Warm and Dry

[srainhoutx]

Not much, if any change with the HGX afternoon update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
302 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF ACT TO THE HILL
COUNTRY. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS NW ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...TO HOUSTON METRO AREA MID EVENING
AND SHOULD APPROACH GALVESTON LATE EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE A RATHER
THIN LINE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR/ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY OCCURRING OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF CWFA THIS EVENING. WEAK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING MODEL VERTICAL PROFILES. SURFACE ANALYSIS
THIS MID AFTERNOON INDICATE A CONVERGING FLOW FROM JUST WEST OF
GLS TO WESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY WITH RELATIVELY COOL SE FLOW OVER
THE FAR SE COUNTIES DUE TO WINDS TRAVERSING COOL SHELF COASTAL
WATERS. NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S WERE NOTED OVER REST OF CWFA WITH
THE HIGHER READINGS OVER THE SW ZONES WITH BREEZY SW FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD BREAK UP DURING MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL
OVER REGION MONDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
USHERING RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS INDICATED TO
PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS NW ZONES MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST
NEAR SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO DURING AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.1 INCHES SW PORTIONS OF CWFA AHEAD OF
FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT REACHING 60 EXCEPT SW PORTIONS AND
ONLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE LIFTED INDEX
VALUES REMAINING POSITIVE. WE SHALL SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS
WOULD INDICATE. FOR NOW WE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING LIGHT DRIZZLE FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IT SHOULD DRY QUICKLY AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE MID 20S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWFA
WITH REMAINDER OF CWFA PROBABLY HAVING MINS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING SATURDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. WARMING TREND AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED THEN.

[Ptarmigan]

From NWS Houston.

Code: Select all

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain before midnight. Mostly cloudy and windy, with a low around 30.

[Paul]

looking at the source region....nothing really eye popping...granted with all the snow pack the air will not modify as much but I dont think we will be as cold as this last week.....Personally I think we are done this year for extreme cold here in SE TX...

time for Tropical weather....

[jgreak]

looking at the source region....nothing really eye popping...granted with all the snow pack the air will not modify as much but I dont think we will be as cold as this last week.....Personally I think we are done this year for extreme cold here in SE TX...

time for Tropical weather....

Bring it on!

[wxman57]

My coworker is reporting 1/2" hail in Conroe at 7:20pm.

[Ptarmigan]

My coworker is reporting 1/2" hail in Conroe at 7:20pm.

A line thunderstorm formed north of Houston.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx

[cristina99]

My coworker is reporting 1/2" hail in Conroe at 7:20pm.

A line thunderstorm formed north of Houston.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx

I can confirm that - it suddenly came a heavy rain storm - went outside, didn't feel any hail - if it was, it was small. As for any snow, my mom almost did her little I told you so dance this past weekend, but also said that sort of stuff happens when we least expect it. Just when people let their guard down is when it happens.

[tireman4]

Definitely seeing lightning to the north of us in Humble

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
756 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

TXZ178-179-200-070300-
LIBERTY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
756 PM CST SUN FEB 6 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 748 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CLEVELAND TO CLEVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TARKINGTON PRAIRIE...
SEGNO...ROMAYOR...MOSS HILL...LIBERTY...KENEFICK...HARDIN...DAYTON
LAKES AND CLEVELAND.

[losmabies]

We had a storm roll through about 30 minutes ago with pea sized hail. Now it is fairly clear skies (some clounds) and quiet.

[wxman666]

Thought y'all might find it interesting that HGX is forecasting a slight chance of freezing drizzle for Hockley, TX (far Northwestern tip of Harris County) which is roughly 15 minutes or less from me (given Waller is only 20 away), which is pretty darn close. I have a gut feeling this forecast will change to a winter wx event for some, and it sounds like HGX might feel that way too, according to their afternoon AFD, of course, they'll need a few more model runs.

[wxman666]

Also, no POP numbers are identified for Wednesday night, which is interesting.

[tireman4]

Hockley is 45.96 miles from me in Humble ...interesting

[wxman666]

Hockley is 45.96 miles from me in Humble ...interesting

Keep watching it tireman. Forecast for Humble calls for 20% rain and lows in the 20's.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-95.2647

[wxman666]

Looks like they're also expecting temps to fall throughout the day, with the high occurring in the morning.

[sambucol]

Looks like they're also expecting temps to fall throughout the day, with the high occurring in the morning.

All of SE Texas?

[Andrew]

GFS says close but nada:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

I am really really tired from this weekend so I am going off to bed. Hopefully I will be on this week.

[wxman666]

Looks like they're also expecting temps to fall throughout the day, with the high occurring in the morning.

All of SE Texas?

From my understanding, I believe so.

[wxman666]

GFS says close but nada:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

I am really really tired from this weekend so I am going off to bed. Hopefully I will be on this week.

Boy do I understand that. Rest up, I think we'll need to keep an eye on this Wednesday storm still.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro has come in a bit 'cooler' and does hint at a very close call. Austin/San Antonio/San Angelo are likely to have a wintry mix and Dallas/Ft Worth has issued a Winter Storm Watch...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 AM CST MON FEB 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE COAST AND IS EXITING THE REGION.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. AM STILL ON THE FENCE BUT AM LEANING TOWARD A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR TODAY. CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION WILL ERODE AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING. SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE LEVEL
WILL DEEPEN TO 0.80 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AND FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
ECMWF COOLER THAN EITHER THE GFS OR CANADIAN. TEMPS MAY FALL BELOW
FREEZING BY EVENING SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STILL PREFER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS FRONT. A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.