February Ends Warm and Dry

[sleetstorm]

I wonder how much that the forecast/predictions for this arctic wave might bust regarding wintery precipitation & temperatures?

[Andrew]

Good flow from the south is going to create some good moisture when the front gets near the coast.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php


Also Euro has come in faster with the cold air.

[TexasBreeze]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT COMING IN MUCH COLDER THAN EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. ALONG THOSE SAME LINES...THE AMOUNT/TYPE
OF PCPN AND TIMING OF SAID PCPN ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN UNDERESTI-
MATED AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/OBS. SO WILL GO AHEAD AND GO
WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER ONSET OF PCPN TIMES WITH THIS 6Z TAF SET. HAD
CONSIDERED THE IDEA OF INCLUDING FZRA/SN/PL" FOR CXO/IAH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...DID DECIDE TO WAIT AS
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. 41

HGX considering frozen issues for Conroe/Bush IAH for the noonish timeframe, but forgoes it for now. It's still a changing situation.

[srainhoutx]

HGX has updated. Some changes ahead...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
...ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S TONIGHT...


A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND BE OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON.
WEATHER HAZARDS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS INCLUDE A WINTER
WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORIES TODAY...AND A HARD FREEZE WARNING
TONIGHT. THE NAM12 WAS LINING UP VERY WELL WITH THE FRONT THIS
MORNING AND UTILIZED THE MODEL FOR THE FIRST FOUR PERIODS.

THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS LINED UP WELL WITH THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AT CRP
AND LCH. ALL SHOWED A VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 800
MB. LIGHT RAIN WAS OCCURRING UNDER THIS INVERSION OVER MUCH OF SE
AND S TX IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY FALL TO BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR FOR AT LEAST A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD. THE
MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS INDICATE A FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE PROFILE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE FRONT. BECAUSE OF
THIS...DECIDED TO BREAK APART THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
TODAY WITH THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING AT
8 AM AND THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF AT NOON. THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY END FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND MID
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NEXT BIG ITEM. THESE WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE 20S OVER MOST INLAND AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRIED TO CATCH UP TO THIS IDEA...BUT FOUND
THAT THE RAW TEMPERATURE GRIDS FROM THE NAM12 WERE REFLECTING THE
SITUATION BETTER THIS MORNING. THESE MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO WARM.
TONIGHT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CLL...MADISONVILLE...AND CROCKETT
MAY EVEN SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS. THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY
CHILLY DAY WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE AS COLD AS TONIGHT.

A SLOW WARM UP WILL BEGIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BEGINS TO MODIFY WHILE STILL OVER
THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL HELP WITH
THE WARM UP.

[Mr. T]

Winter weather advisory issued for Harris. Freezing rain entered into the grids for Harris County, including Houston

I really doubt we see much freezing drizzle or light freezing rain, if anything, but a curious sight to see I guess.

[srainhoutx]

Hard Freeze Warning issued for all of SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

Appears all of HGX forecast area under a Winter Weather Advisory except for Galveston and Chambers County. That's a mighty big change.

[Mr. T]

Again, doubt we see much, but to have even the slightest chance of freezing rain in the forecast again is pretty amazing...

Today...Cloudy. Rain in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon. A chance of light freezing rain in the afternoon. Breezy...cooler. Highs in the upper 40s. Temperature falling into the upper 20s in the afternoon. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph in the morning becoming north and increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent in the morning decreasing to 40 percent in the afternoon. Lowest wind chill readings 8 to 18 in the afternoon.

Tonight...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Much colder. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds 15 to 25 mph.

Thursday...Partly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Lowest wind chill readings 8 to 18 in the morning.

Thursday Night...Clear. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

[srainhoutx]

The front is just N and W of DT Austin. It is running a bit ahead of schedule. I guess we should have known changes were coming with the Aviation update just before mid night. Hopefully there wont be much if any freezing precip issues, but I suspect some folks will be a bit surprised as the information gets out this morning.

[Mr. T]

522 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL TO BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ICE TO FORM...MAINLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS INCLUDING BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
ACCOMPANYING THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORTH WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. THIS WIND AND TEMPERATURE COMBINATION WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

[srainhoutx]

The front has passed College Station and is nearing Huntsville...

[skidog38]

NWS has freezing rain from 2-5 for houston

also weather channel shows a second low in mexico?

[srainhoutx]

NWS has freezing rain from 2-5 for houston

also weather channel shows a second low in mexico?

[wxman57]

NWS has freezing rain from 2-5 for houston

also weather channel shows a second low in mexico?

I don't think the greater Houston area will see anything in the way of freezing rain. I think the precip will end before the temperature drops below 32. The NWS put that mention of freezing rain just in case the precip lasts longer than expected.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

SOUTH TEXAS REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
700 AM CST WED FEB 09 2011

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATED FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* - THESE STATIONS ARE NOT NWS OR FAA STATIONS...AND ARE NOT SUBJECT
    TO NWS AND FAA QUALITY CONTROL.

TXZ171-172-183>190-091400-
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
JUNCTION       FLURRIES  17  15  92 N13G21    30.27R WCI   4
*LLANO         CLOUDY    19  14  79 CALM      30.30R
BURNET         LGT SNOW  16  13  88 NW16G25   30.24R FOG     WCI   1
*HORSESHOE BAY CLOUDY    19  17  89 NW14G26   30.23R WCI   6
*KERRVILLE     CLOUDY    19  15  86 NW23G30   30.18R FOG     WCI   1
*FREDERICKSBRG CLOUDY    16  14  90 N10G23    30.21R WCI   4
*ROCKSPRINGS   CLOUDY    18  14  86 CALM      30.20R FOG
*BOERNE STAGE  CLOUDY    25  22  91 N16G29    30.13R WCI  12
*CASTROVILLE   MIX PCPN  32  29  89 N24G32    30.12R WCI  19
HONDO          CLOUDY    29  24  82 N30G43    30.12R WCI  13
*UVALDE        CLOUDY    29  23  78 NW22G29   30.13R WCI  16
DEL RIO        CLOUDY    26   9  48 NW24G35   30.30R WCI  11
LAUGHLIN AFB   CLOUDY    26  10  49 NW25G31   30.29R WCI  11
$$

TXZ173-191>194-202-209-217>225-228-091400-
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
GEORGETOWN     CLOUDY    19  16  86 NW23G35   30.20R WCI   2
AUSTIN/BERGSTM LGT RAIN  31  29  92 NW20G28   30.15R FOG     WCI  19
AUSTIN/MABRY   MIX PCPN  27  23  85 NW12G33   30.19R WCI  17
*AUSTIN/EXEC   CLOUDY    25  23  93 NW29G37   30.18R WCI   8
*LAGO VISTA    FLURRIES  23  19  86 NW20G35   30.18R WCI   8
SAN MARCOS     CLOUDY    30  19  64 N29G36    30.15R WCI  15
NEW BRAUNFELS  LGT RAIN  34  30  86 N22G30    30.12R WCI  22
RANDOLPH AFB   CLOUDY    33  31  90 N25G36    30.09R WCI  21
SAN ANTONIO    CLOUDY    32  28  85 N26G40    30.10R WCI  18
STINSON FIELD  FLURRIES  37  32  82 N24G31    30.08R WCI  26
*PLEASANTON    CLOUDY    51  49  94 N10G20    30.04R
*LA GRANGE     HVY RAIN  47  45  92 N10       30.06R WCI  42
*GIDDINGS      RAIN      44  44 100 N14G21    30.13R WCI  37
$$

[srainhoutx]

Temp has fallen to 34F at College Station per Weather Underground Rapid Fire...

History for KTXCOLLE20
Observatory, College Station, TX — Current Conditions
Daily Summary for February 9, 2011


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Current: High: Low: Average:
Temperature: 33.9 °F 47.0 °F 35.1 °F 44.7 °F
Dew Point: 31.6 °F 42.5 °F 31.6 °F 40.7 °F
Humidity: 80% 83% 63% 76%
Wind Speed: 25.0mph 29.0mph - 5.5mph
Wind Gust: 35.0mph 35.0mph - -
Wind: NW - - NE
Pressure: 30.20in 30.20in 30.00in -
Precipitation: 0.20in
Solar Radiation: 9.0 watts/m^2
UV Index:

[Andrew]

I just don't see any moisture whatsoever behind the front. There is the chance of some wraparound moisture but I just don't see it. I don't know how much precip in the form of rain we will even see (not saying much was forecasted though). I agree with Wxman looks to me like we won't see much in the form (if any) of wintry percip.

[srainhoutx]

Front has passed New Ulm and Bellville. Approaching Brenham at this time...

[wxman57]

There just isn't anything to produce much lifting behind the front, so all we see is a bit of mist/light drizzle as the much colder and drier air blasts in. Houston may drop to 32 by early this afternoon (1pm or so).

[wxman57]

Front has passed New Ulm and Bellville. Approaching Brenham at this time...

I like to watch it on the wunderground site:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... &wmo=99999