February Ends Warm and Dry

[sleetstorm]

Rectify me if I am wrong on this, but just because the days are gradually becoming longer by the day and the nights gradually becoming longer by each passing night does not in itself mean that wintry precipitation will not be falling over this region of Texas for the remainder of the 2010-2011 season of Winter. There have been ice, sleet, and snow storms in the months of March & April. I am not reminding anyone simply on the feasibility but also on the conditions of the atmosphere as well.

[Andrew]

GFS 144:

[wxman666]

Verbatim looking at the AccuWx PPV numbers, a tiny bit of freezing rain predicted by the GFS, but temps are so close, considering the problems the globals have with shallow Arctic airmasses, the GFS is basically predicting another icing event for Houston.

Could be in excess of a quarter inch. Still almost 5 days out, things can change, but the suggestion of an ice storm or a near miss has been on the 12Z and 0Z GFS and the ensembles.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

Maybe people will STAY OFF THE ROADS this time!

[Andrew]

ECMWF is too close but shows another possible wintry situation next week. Looks cold though as temps get down to 20F

[TexasBreeze]

One thing to keep an eye on is Canada. As of now it is warmer than here.

wow, that is incredibly depressing

We're halfway (ballpark) to the Equinox. The rate of change of the day length will only get greater untiil late March. And then the rate of change will start decreasing, but the day length itself will still increase, and then it'll be squall line season. And before you know it, baseball season, and then just as the Astros are out of realistic playoff contention, NFL camps will start. If they can get a new CBA. And if not, there is college ball camp.
_____________________
That's funny and sad at the same time haha. Astros out of playoff contention by that time is predictable, but I'm still a fan. I'm hoping they agree on a new CBA it would be sad without NFL football. College football would fill the empty gap though. Mostly. Texas needs to do better this year. The basketball team has done well this season!
I'm hoping the widespread cold doesn't squash squall line season too much. It's exciting tracking lines of storms, but considering that arctic front squall line that came through the other morning happened in early February, anything's possible in March-May.
I'm not saying nothing about next weeks weather yet. The last system's analysis goes to show how hard forecasting is in one day let alone 5-7 days.

[Andrew]

One thing to keep an eye on is Canada. As of now it is warmer than here.

wow, that is incredibly depressing

We're halfway (ballpark) to the Equinox. The rate of change of the day length will only get greater untiil late March. And then the rate of change will start decreasing, but the day length itself will still increase, and then it'll be squall line season. And before you know it, baseball season, and then just as the Astros are out of realistic playoff contention, NFL camps will start. If they can get a new CBA. And if not, there is college ball camp.
_____________________
That's funny and sad at the same time haha. Astros out of playoff contention by that time is predictable, but I'm still a fan. I'm hoping they agree on a new CBA it would be sad without NFL football. College football would fill the empty gap though. Mostly. Texas needs to do better this year. The basketball team has done well this season!
I'm hoping the widespread cold doesn't squash squall line season too much. It's exciting tracking lines of storms, but considering that arctic front squall line that came through the other morning happened in early February, anything's possible in March-May.
I'm not saying nothing about next weeks weather yet. The last system's analysis goes to show how hard forecasting is in one day let alone 5-7 days.[/quote]

It won't be winter that will destroy the squal weather season it will be the cap. So many events lately have been held back completely by it. Very depressing (in a sick way I guess)

[TexasBreeze]

Ah you bring up the 'dreaded cap'. You're right that is the real tough foe to defeat. There have been plenty of moderate risks that either didn't verify or did so north and east of here.

[TexasBreeze]

And also scraping ice off my truck windows in 22 degrees for 15 or so minutes due to a sprinkler at work wasn't fun to do tonight! Man its cold and frosty too!

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE EARLY
EVENING. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM 12 MOVEMENT WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT
THROUGH 00-03Z. THE NAM ALSO HAS MORE MOISTURE AND LESS CAPPING
THAN THE GFS. DECIDED TO ADD 20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES PER
THE NAM SOLUTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO WEST TEXAS ON
MONDAY AND BRING A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR MASS TO THE STATE. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND A WARM UP WILL ENSUE. THINK A FEW
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. POST FRONTAL
RAINS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
AND HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDS AFTERNOON. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH
TIMING SO FOR WILL JUST CALL FOR A COLD RAIN. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED THU/FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS THU/FRI MORNING WILL
AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S. ANOTHER WARM UP WILL BEGIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

[wxman57]

6Z GFS indicates a few hours of very light freezing rain next Wednesday morning. Just a few hundreths of an inch between around 5pm and 9pm. Air aloft (850mb line) appears way too warm for any snow.

[srainhoutx]

I've noticed the past several runs of the GFS are attempting to stall or slow down the frontal approach into SE TX. Modeling error? We shall see.

[redneckweather]

It sonds like a sloppy drive for me heading out west along I-10 towards San Antonio this coming up Wednesday. I will be pulling my trailer loaded down with gear which I HATE doing in the rain. Great.

[Portastorm]

It sonds like a sloppy drive for me heading out west along I-10 towards San Antonio this coming up Wednesday. I will be pulling my trailer loaded down with gear which I HATE doing in the rain. Great.

A 0z GFS meteogram showed at least .10 inches of freezing rain for AUS on Wednesday, unfortunately (not a fan of ice storms). Right now, San Antonio is progged to be above freezing but that certainly can (and probably will) change.

[srainhoutx]

Nice early morning VIS shot of the snow cover to our N...

[srainhoutx]

12Z la la land NAM suggests another deep trough developing to our W. That model also suggests another robust short wave diving S as well...

[redneckweather]

Portastorm: A 0z GFS meteogram showed at least .10 inches of freezing rain for AUS on Wednesday, unfortunately (not a fan of ice storms). Right now, San Antonio is progged to be above freezing but that certainly can (and probably will) change.

I noticed that and just talked to the wife. I'm thinking we are going to leave a day early and try to beat the mess. Leakey is about and hour and half WNW of San Antonio and they could get freezing precip Tuesday night into Wednesday. I would like to get settled into the cabin, get a fire stoked and wait for the cold and nasty weather.

[wxman57]

Portastorm: A 0z GFS meteogram showed at least .10 inches of freezing rain for AUS on Wednesday, unfortunately (not a fan of ice storms). Right now, San Antonio is progged to be above freezing but that certainly can (and probably will) change.

I noticed that and just talked to the wife. I'm thinking we are going to leave a day early and try to beat the mess. Leakey is about and hour and half WNW of San Antonio and they could get freezing precip Tuesday night into Wednesday. I would like to get settled into the cabin, get a fire stoked and wait for the cold and nasty weather.

That would be my suggestion. Avoid travel next Wednesday.

[don]

12z GFS shows another snow event for DFW, and a icing event for Austin and College Station , looks to be a close call for places like Houston and San Antonio, in San Antonio it has temps hovering at about 33 F with .14 qpfs, and in Houston it has over .30 qpfs with temperatures hovering in the low 30s, just above freezing...If the GFS is just slightly underestimating the push of the cold air it could make a major difference between just a cold rain or another ice storm....

[wxman57]

Yes, it appears to show about 0.05" precip falling with surface temps below 32. Note 850mb temps well above freezing, indicating freezing rain vs. snow:



For Dallas, though, it's another story. Quite an ice/snow storm for you folks Wednesday!

[Andrew]

I think the gfs is a little to warm on the temps. The 00z euro looks better to me. I mean 9 in Dallas but only mid 20's for us. Looks a little fishy. I'm not going to even begin speculating on moisture until a day or two out