February Ends Warm and Dry

[Andrew]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

I might. I am so burned out right now I will see what I can do.

[ticka1]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

Not me - I stayed up all night last night with little cat naps during the event. Come Monday- probably so!

[txsnowmaker]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

I might. I am so burned out right now I will see what I can do.

I understand. If you happen to post I am sure others will be checking in from time to time. Well, at least I will!

[txsnowmaker]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

Not me - I stayed up all night last night with little cat naps during the event. Come Monday- probably so!

I hear ya. Interesting that these arctic blasts have been progressively colder. Hard to imagine the next one being even more so, but as srain said, there is lots of snow pack above us now.

[sambucol]

Not me - I stayed up all night last night with little cat naps during the event. Come Monday- probably so!

Oh, come on, Ticka! I'll stay up with you!

[Andrew]

One thing to keep an eye on is Canada. As of now it is warmer than here.

[helloitsb]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

I may even though I don't want to get caught up in this one, I kind of want it to just happen without me knowing the guidelines of the system and what not

[wxman57]

I have been talking some with Larry Cosgrove on FB about this. He is the only met I know who got this right about no snow. I mentioned the sounding thing and he said that is not the problem, that there is enough data available without the Hou/Gal non-existent soundings. The 850 mb majic line for snow in this area(about -4c) was never really far enough South to give a good solid call for snow in Houston according to him. Do any of the pro-mets agree with this? I seem to remember that what he is saying is correct, at least in the later model runs, but in my desire for snow I think I ignored it. So I pose the question to the mets here. What did almost all the mets in our area miss? If Larry is correct in his assessment, why did so many not catch it and/or did they ignore it getting caught up in the wish for the big story(hype?)?

That 850mb -4C rule is a general rule of thumb to use when you don't really know the atmospheric profile. If the 850mb temp is -4C or colder, then the vertical profile is most probably cold enough to support snow. But it doesn't work the other way around. That is, it can certainly snow with the 850mb temp warmer than -4C. It depends on the temperature of the rest of the atmosphere above and below 850mb (5000 ft).

For this event, the 850mb temp was not at -4C, but that doesn't mean it could not have snowed. The problem was a warm layer above the 850mb layer. If that warm layer hadn't been there, and if the 850mb temp was the same as it was last night, then it would have snowed.

That's where a vertical sounding would have really helped this week, and where I disagree with Larry Cosgrove. We had to guess what the vertical profile was. Heck, we even had to guess what the 850mb temperature was, as it's not measured over Houston. So it was mostly a coincidence that the 850mb -4C rule of thumb worked with this event.

[wxman57]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

I'm not sure what the point of staying up to 12:30am would be to wait for a model that may not have the right solution about next week for another 5 days.

[snowman65]

Call me crazy but it is SNOWING at my house right now!!!!:)...not heavy but it's sticking even..

[txsnowmaker]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

I'm not sure what the point of staying up to 12:30am would be to wait for a model that may not have the right solution about next week for another 5 days.

I see your point, but I am usually up that late anyway.

[djmike]

I am shocked to already hear mets saying more wintery precip next week! I can't even begin to start tracking the next system, as I tracked this last one from day one, and I for one will admit, I was dissapointed with the no snow. First of all, it's waaaay too early to even know if wintery precip will make an appearance...I will be taking a break for the next few days, then probably come back to the lurking mode come Monday....Mets here say yes, there will be precip, but ONLY during FROPA. That is the only thing I can trust for now...

[wxman666]

Call me crazy but it is SNOWING at my house right now!!!!:)...not heavy but it's sticking even..

Are you SERIOUS!?

[snowman65]

Call me crazy but it is SNOWING at my house right now!!!!:)...not heavy but it's sticking even..

Are you SERIOUS!?

Yes...we went to eat and I thought I saw flakes in front of my headlights..nobody believed me. It started snowing lightly at the restraunt then stopped. Came home and it's snowing here at the house. It's light but steady.....sticking to vehicles.

[snowman65]

This is very wierd because nothing is showing up on radar....

[djmike]

Yea....we're getting very VERY light flurries also in Beaumont. Very light accu on vehicles, but thats about it...won't last long though...

[snowman65]

Good..as long as I'm not crazy!!

[djmike]

Good..as long as I'm not crazy!!

Yea....it's too light for radar to pick up. That's what tells me it won't last long....

[Andrew]

So who is staying up for the Euro/Canadian?!

I'm not sure what the point of staying up to 12:30am would be to wait for a model that may not have the right solution about next week for another 5 days.

While that is true I stay up to see that one run where it shows a 1070mb high coming down from Canada and giving us temperatures in the teens or single digits. While it prob won't come true it is always fun to speculate and see what COULD happen.

[unome]

One thing to keep an eye on is Canada. As of now it is warmer than here.

wow, that is incredibly depressing