February Ends Warm and Dry

[sleetstorm]

You are jesting about that though, yes, wxman57? Winter being over?

[wxman57]

You are jesting about that though, yes, wxman57? Winter being over?

Depends on how you define winter. Sure, I think we'll get additional cold fronts between now and May, but I don't think we'll see anything like the cold we've seen the last 2-3 weeks. Probably no more freezes through February, and maybe only a light freeze or two (or none) in March. Winter weather chances ( freezing/frozen precip for us) appear to be close to zero now. The days are getting longer (daylight savings time in 4 weeks) and average temps will be on a steady rise from here on out.

[srainhoutx]

If the GFS is correct in the La La Land range(end of February), things could get interesting regarding some heavy rainfall potential and just perhaps some stormy weather chances. We will see...

[Andrew]

You are jesting about that though, yes, wxman57? Winter being over?

Depends on how you define winter. Sure, I think we'll get additional cold fronts between now and May, but I don't think we'll see anything like the cold we've seen the last 2-3 weeks. Probably no more freezes through February, and maybe only a light freeze or two (or none) in March. Winter weather chances ( freezing/frozen precip for us) appear to be close to zero now. The days are getting longer (daylight savings time in 4 weeks) and average temps will be on a steady rise from here on out.

Music to my ears. Now it is time to prepare for "sever weather" and hurrican season.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro has been suggesting for several runs that some 'cooler weather' may in fact return near day 8, +/- a day or so...

02122011 12Z f216.gif

02122011 12Z Euro f240.gif

[sleetstorm]

You are jesting about that though, yes, wxman57? Winter being over?

Depends on how you define winter. Sure, I think we'll get additional cold fronts between now and May, but I don't think we'll see anything like the cold we've seen the last 2-3 weeks. Probably no more freezes through February, and maybe only a light freeze or two (or none) in March. Winter weather chances ( freezing/frozen precip for us) appear to be close to zero now. The days are getting longer (daylight savings time in 4 weeks) and average temps will be on a steady rise from here on out.

Yes, wxman57, I realize all too well that the days are growing longer and the nights are growing shorter, albeit gradually, And, y that day light savings time will be a month away on the twentieth, next Sunday. Yet, there have been winter storms on some of my birthdays, which, by the way, is on the 5th of next month, in the past.

[wxman57]

The "Storm of the Century" was March 12-14, 1993, so it is possible to have big storms in March. Daylight savings starts March 13th this year. Can't wait. Makes it easier to get a few hours of riding in during the evenings.

[Andrew]

A little late but here are the pics from Randy's Facebook (The snow we should've received) :

[randybpt]

Those pics are from Feb. 5th. The depth was abouty 1 1/2 foot. Which took bout 10 hours we lost bout 4 hours of snow.making when a.drunk hit a power pole at 4 am lost power til 2 pm.

[C2G]

Randy, that's got to run the water bill up just a tad?
My birthday is next week and God has answered my prayers for warmth.
I can't think of a better birthday present than warmth..............GLORIOUS WARMTH.
Bring on Spring and summer.

[randybpt]

Awwww. What's a few dollars to make my kids smile and laugh...

[Mr. T]

Patchy freezing fog occuring this morning from Beaumont to Houston

549 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2011

.NOW...
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.
IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE FOG COULD CREATE PATCHES OF ICE ON ELEVATED
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MOTORISTS SHOULD
USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING EARLY THIS MORNING. BE ESPECIALLY
CAUTIOUS WHILE DRIVING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. USE LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS AND KEEP PLENTY OF DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER
VEHICLES.

Very rare for these parts...

[Mr. T]

HGX says we've had the most freezing temperatures this season since the winter of 1983-84:

.CLIMATE...
FOR BOTH HOUSTON AND GALVESTON...THIS FEBRUARY HAS HAD MORE FREEZES
THAN ANY OTHER FEBRUARY EXCEPT 1895...THE SAME FEBRUARY THAT BOTH
CITIES RECEIVED THEIR ALL-TIME RECORD SNOWSTORM (15-20 INCHES). THE
WINTER OF 2010-2011 HAS HAD MORE DAYS WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
THAN ANY WINTER SINCE THE 1983-1984 WINTER SEASON. FOR GALVESTON...
NINE FREEZES HAVE BEEN RECORDED THIS WINTER. WHAT`S REMARKABLE IS
THAT GALVESTON RECENTLY WENT FIVE CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR YEARS (2005
THROUGH 2009) WITHOUT A SINGLE FREEZE BEING RECORDED.

HOUSTON - MOST DAYS IN FEBRUARY WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS:
1. 14 DAYS - FEB 1895
2. 12 DAYS - FEB 2011
3. 9 DAYS - FEB 1989*
4. 8 DAYS - FEB 1905
5. 7 DAYS - FEB 2002*

HOUSTON - MOST DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS:
1. 42 DAYS - 1977-1978
2. 36 DAYS - 1976-1977
3. 34 DAYS - 1975-1976
4. 30 DAYS - 1969-1970
5. 26 DAYS - 1970-1971
6. 25 DAYS - 1983-1984*
7. 23 DAYS - 2010-2011*
30-YEAR AVERAGE (1981-2010): 12.5 DAYS

GALVESTON - MOST DAYS IN FEBRUARY WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS:
1. 10 DAYS - FEB 1895
2. 8 DAYS - FEB 2011
3. 5 DAYS - FEB 1989*
4. 4 DAYS - FEB 1960*
5. 3 DAYS - FEB 1996*

GALVESTON - MOST DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS:
1. 15 DAYS - 1929-1930
2. 14 DAYS - 1894-1895
3. 12 DAYS - 1962-1963*
4. 11 DAYS - 1983-1984*
5. 10 DAYS - 1917-1918
6. 9 DAYS - 2010-2011*
30-YEAR AVERAGE (1981-2010): 2.5 DAYS

HOUSTON RECORDS BACK TO 1892
GALVESTON RECORDS BACK TO 1875
* MEANS ALSO RECORDED IN EARLIER YEARS

[wxman57]

Take a look at the meteogram from the 6Z GFS. Doesn't this coming week look a lot better than last week? And temps are getting closer to my "warm" line:

[srainhoutx]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
917 AM EST SUN FEB 13 2011

VALID 12Z THU FEB 17 2011 - 12Z SUN FEB 20 2011

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT A TRANSITIONAL MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INLAND OVER NORTH AMERICA HIGHLIGHTED BY
AN AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WRN US AND MASSIVE LEAD
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN US THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFY DURING THE WEEK AS AMPLE IMPULSE ENERGY EJECTS OUT FROM
THE WRN US. BELOW NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD IS EVIDENT FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH TODAYS GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON AN INCREASINGLY
MORE COMMON SOLUTION...BUT SOME CAUTION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS
TRANSITIONAL PATTERNS HAVE HISTORICALLY OFFERED HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY. ACCORDINGLY...UPDATED HPC PRELIM PROGS HAVE BEEN
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A 3-WAY BLEND OF THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLES AND MAINTAIN GOOD HPC CONTINUITY.

FORECAST SPREAD THAT IS QUITE LOW INTO DAY5/FRI DOES START TO REAR
ITS UGLY HEAD MORE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
EVIDENT OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WHERE THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLES HOLD ONTO MORE AMPLIFIED
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAN THE 06 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC CANADIAN
AND GFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLES...LEADING TO MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPTH
VARIANCE DUG INTO THE WRN US. A SOLUTION WELL ON THE MORE
AMPIFIED SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING LEAD-IN AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC THAT OFTEN
PROVES SLOW TO DISLODGE. OUR BLENDED SOLUTION ALSO SMOOTHES LESS
PREDICTABLE SMALLER SCALE DETAIL.

IN THIS PATTERN...CONSIDERABLE UNSETTLED AND WIDESPREAD COLD/WET
CONDITIONS WOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEST UNDER A MEAN TROUGH
POSITION ALOFT...WITH HEAVIEST WINTERY QPF LIKELY FOCUSING INTO
FAVORED CA TERRAIN. DOWNSTREAM...VERY WARM PRE-FRONTAL TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN US WILL STARKLY CONTRAST COLDER
POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WHOSE SUPPORTING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF WELL ORGANIZED
LOW DEVELOPMENT SLATED FROM THE N-CENTRAL US TO ERN CAN DAYS 5/6
FRI/SAT. THIS LOW SHOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF HEAVIER SNOWS WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL IN THE TRAILING UPSLOPE FETCH IN THE SURGING
COLD AIRMASS. THE LEAD AND TRAILING ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ALSO ACT TO FOCUS RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL AND ERN US AS PER
A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE.

CISCO/SCHICHTEL

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests that in spite of warmer temps, the week may well be cloudy and damp with the return flow becoming well established off those chilly Gulf waters. And fog looks to be an issue as well...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
953 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2011

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR-SUNRISE FORMATION OF LOCALLY DENSE RADIATIONAL FOG OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAS ALREADY EVAPORATED AWAY BY 15Z. ANOTHER WARM
DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...AND INTERIOR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS REACHING THE AVERAGE UPPER 60S. DEW
POINTS HAVE QUICKLY CLIMBED SINCE 12Z...AN EARLY SIGN THAT SUBSEQUENT
MORNINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL
NOT ONLY INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BUT MORE AREAWIDE EARLY
MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG AND DENSE SEA FOG. LOW TO MID 50 TD AIR
MASS RIDING OVER SHELF WATERS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL HEIGHTEN
THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE SEA FOG. AS MENTIONED BELOW...SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW NOT A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR THE ONSET OF THE SOUP.
FEEL THAT SUCH WARM MOIST AIR OVER OUR LOCALLY CHILLED NEAR-COASTAL
WATERS WILL COUNTER THIS MORE SOUTH...THAN EAST... WIND. THROUGH
MID-WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FROM SUNSET
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
FLATTENING RIDGE THAT WILL SUPPORT THE CASE FOR THESE UPCOMING
MID-FEBRUARY AFTERNOONS WARMING IN THE AVERAGE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MIDDLE 60S COAST ONCE FOG THINS OUT.

[wxman57]

Unfortunately, we'll be paying for the cold weather the past 3-4 weeks with an extended period of low clouds, drizzle and fog once deep Gulf return flow sets up across the region. It may take 3-4 weeks of southerly winds to get water temperatures up into the mid 60s and get rid of the clouds/fog during return flow periods. Enjoy today's sunshine while it lasts, as southerly flow begins soon.

[Ptarmigan]

HGX says we've had the most freezing temperatures this season since the winter of 1983-84:

.CLIMATE...
FOR BOTH HOUSTON AND GALVESTON...THIS FEBRUARY HAS HAD MORE FREEZES
THAN ANY OTHER FEBRUARY EXCEPT 1895...THE SAME FEBRUARY THAT BOTH
CITIES RECEIVED THEIR ALL-TIME RECORD SNOWSTORM (15-20 INCHES). THE
WINTER OF 2010-2011 HAS HAD MORE DAYS WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
THAN ANY WINTER SINCE THE 1983-1984 WINTER SEASON. FOR GALVESTON...
NINE FREEZES HAVE BEEN RECORDED THIS WINTER. WHAT`S REMARKABLE IS
THAT GALVESTON RECENTLY WENT FIVE CONSECUTIVE CALENDAR YEARS (2005
THROUGH 2009) WITHOUT A SINGLE FREEZE BEING RECORDED.

HOUSTON - MOST DAYS IN FEBRUARY WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS:
1. 14 DAYS - FEB 1895
2. 12 DAYS - FEB 2011
3. 9 DAYS - FEB 1989*
4. 8 DAYS - FEB 1905
5. 7 DAYS - FEB 2002*

HOUSTON - MOST DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS:
1. 42 DAYS - 1977-1978
2. 36 DAYS - 1976-1977
3. 34 DAYS - 1975-1976
4. 30 DAYS - 1969-1970
5. 26 DAYS - 1970-1971
6. 25 DAYS - 1983-1984*
7. 23 DAYS - 2010-2011*
30-YEAR AVERAGE (1981-2010): 12.5 DAYS

GALVESTON - MOST DAYS IN FEBRUARY WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS:
1. 10 DAYS - FEB 1895
2. 8 DAYS - FEB 2011
3. 5 DAYS - FEB 1989*
4. 4 DAYS - FEB 1960*
5. 3 DAYS - FEB 1996*

GALVESTON - MOST DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS:
1. 15 DAYS - 1929-1930
2. 14 DAYS - 1894-1895
3. 12 DAYS - 1962-1963*
4. 11 DAYS - 1983-1984*
5. 10 DAYS - 1917-1918
6. 9 DAYS - 2010-2011*
30-YEAR AVERAGE (1981-2010): 2.5 DAYS

HOUSTON RECORDS BACK TO 1892
GALVESTON RECORDS BACK TO 1875
* MEANS ALSO RECORDED IN EARLIER YEARS

Link for anyone to read it.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

The winter of 1975-1976 was a La Nina winter, like this one. It was also a strong La Nina. Interesting to note that the Fall of 1983 was La Nina, which went to Neutral by Winter of 1983-1984. This happened after a strong El Nino. The February 1989 freeze occurred in a strong La Nina, like this winter. I said this winter's analog could be Winter 1988-1989.

Interesting to see that from 1975 to 1978, we had cold winters. It happened after a persistent La Nina from 1973 to 1976. We had a persistent La Nina from 2007 to 2009. 2009-2010 Winter was one of the coldest on record and this one was cold. However, last winter did not have deep freezes like this winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

Some winters had no sub-freezing, let alone freezing, Winter of 1930-1931 had none. It is possible it did because the thermometer could of been misread or out of calibration.

[srainhoutx]

The West Coast storm may well bring some chances of thunderstorms as that system finally begins to move E...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2011

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN RECENT
RUNS...WITH BOTH EJECTING A LEAD UPPER IMPULSE ENEWD OUT OF THE MAIN
WRN TROUGH AND INTO THE PLAINS DAY 5 /THU. 2-17/. IN RESPONSE...A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NRN PLAINS DAY 5...REACHING THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
THE START OF DAY 6. AS THE CYCLONE SHIFTS EWD...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING THE LOWER MO
VALLEY/SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
FORECAST IN THE WARM SECTOR -- THIS OVERALL SETUP SUGGESTS SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL -- BUT ATTM EXPECT LITTLE CAPE TO BE PRESENT...DUE
TO VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOIST RETURN AND WARM/DRY ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER BEING MAINTAINED BY SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THUS...ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ATTM.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN CANADA DAY 6...THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED FROM THE OH VALLEY
REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND WWD INTO TX DAY 7. BOTH DAYS...A
FRONTAL WAVE INVOF TX WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED BY THE LARGE-SCALE
WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING...AND EVENTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
INTO TX MAY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDER THREAT. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE
SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 02/13/2011

[Baseballdude2915]

Well, about time to throw in the flag.. Winter is over.
Hopefully one last late season cold front before the 80s and 90s return