February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Paul
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CAK wrote:I mentioned a few pages back if you look at radar, the moisture seems to be getting pushed back off coast and south. Is this expected? Why do I have a feeling we may not see nearly as much moisture as predicted.
because the ULL is in MX....hasnt ejected yet across Texas...but it will.....


33 here under clear sky in Pearland...might make 30F tonight or maybe upper 20's if it stays clear...
medicalgirl32
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This is what my brother says...of course he is not a professional in any way! :roll:
And I do not necessarilly agree! But what can i say we are bored at the hospital all day waiting and glued to the forum.

"A big bust from the get go. Temps will not get as low tonight and the upper low over NM has shifted east not taking the dive south as the models indicated. The moisture in the Gulf is moving south and east into LA. To many variables that did not come together. Great snow maker for central and north TX. IMO."
biggerbyte
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srainhoutx wrote:Bad choice of words, BB. None of our Pro Mets have been 'cocky'.

Okay, now this is getting ridiculous, Steve. Maybe you now need to re-read my comments as well? Please show me where I said any Pro Met was being cocky? I believe I did not.. Please feel free to correct me. Some of the non professionals/posters have been at times, however. As a matter of fact, the person I was speaking to just now was being cocky with me. I'm completely lost and taken back by this unfortunate and inaccurate comment of yours.

You know what? I've given my opinion about this event like everyone else. I wanted to be more objective/less hype should this event fall apart on us all. It seems that I'm not falling into the "click", and have ruffled some snow covered feathers.
I'm glad all of you are in agreement and all is good. BB will just keep his opinion to himself.

I hope you all get what you want out of this.

Tootles....
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Paul
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Whose being "cocky"? not me....just enjoying the show and trying to answer some questions.
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Paul
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medicalgirl32 wrote:This is what my brother says...of course he is not a professional in any way! :roll:
And I do not necessarilly agree! But what can i say we are bored at the hospital all day waiting and glued to the forum.

"A big bust from the get go. Temps will not get as low tonight and the upper low over NM has shifted east not taking the dive south as the models indicated. The moisture in the Gulf is moving south and east into LA. To many variables that did not come together. Great snow maker for central and north TX. IMO."


your brother is going against every model guidance available.....glad I am not going to Vegas with him!! :D

That ULL is in NMX still digging south. it was in AZ earlier today......tell him to pull a WV loop...:)
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cristina99
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medicalgirl32 wrote:This is what my brother says...of course he is not a professional in any way! :roll:
And I do not necessarilly agree! But what can i say we are bored at the hospital all day waiting and glued to the forum.

"A big bust from the get go. Temps will not get as low tonight and the upper low over NM has shifted east not taking the dive south as the models indicated. The moisture in the Gulf is moving south and east into LA. To many variables that did not come together. Great snow maker for central and north TX. IMO."

Is he trying to stir the pot? :o I'll be very disappointed if I wake up tomorrow and David Paul has some sad news to report. :cry:
skidog38
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the DOOR just opened.
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helloitsb
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cristina99 wrote:
medicalgirl32 wrote:This is what my brother says...of course he is not a professional in any way! :roll:
And I do not necessarilly agree! But what can i say we are bored at the hospital all day waiting and glued to the forum.

"A big bust from the get go. Temps will not get as low tonight and the upper low over NM has shifted east not taking the dive south as the models indicated. The moisture in the Gulf is moving south and east into LA. To many variables that did not come together. Great snow maker for central and north TX. IMO."

Is he trying to stir the pot? :o I'll be very disappointed if I wake up tomorrow and David Paul has some sad news to report. :cry:
I really think that if this were the case our fine pro mets on the forum and NWS (HGX) would jump all over it, with schools starting to close and roads being taken care of this would have to get out pretty quickly
MRG93415
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skidog38 wrote:the DOOR just opened.


Meaning?????
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cristina99
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will check in first thing tommorrow morning. gotta go to bed - although i'm so excited, i'm sure I'll have problem sleeping. I'm sure there'll be lots of reading for me to do. :)
TexasMetBlake
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Okay...here goes:

Some of you are being very childish...and you know who you are. Just stop.

A couple of things you guys need to think about before calling everybody a liar and calling the event a 'bust.'

1.) Very few of you are well versed in the world of meteorology. You do not have the privilage of viewing extensive data from behind the scenes nor do you go on other expert opinions. As opinion is just that...an opinion. It doesn't make BB right any more than me saying it's going to be 80 degrees tomorrow. I can say that all day long, but like Mark Twain said, "it's not the things we don't know that hurt us, but rather the things we know for sure that are true, that just ain't so.

2.) There is not one single thing that has changed in the models except a trend towards HEAVIER QPF. Boys and girls, that equates to higher snowfall totals.

3). This low is far stronger and the air is far colder and the moisture supply is in greater abundance than in 2004. This is NOT the same event.

4.) Did you know that the National Weather Service gets graded on its forecasts? If they issue a watch or warning that does not verify, then they lose government funding. It is crucial that they do the best job possible. A WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING IS NOT ISSUED LIGHTLY NOR ARE THEY EXPECTING UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS IF THERE WAS NOT A GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE SO. This is not just the thinking of HGX but DFW, Austin (who called it a worst case scenerio for them), Corpus and Brownsville. Can all those offices be wrong??????

5.) People really need to quit desguising opinion for facts. I wish there was a rule that you had to produce a link or show a graphic when making statements. If you don't think it will snow, put your money where your mouth is and SHOW US WHY.

I think everybody needs to take a step back, breathe and relax. It IS going to snow area wide starting tomorrow night. I am confident in this. For the first time in 3 winter storms here, I feel good about my chances of accumulating snow in my yard. I just got home from work where i have been starring at this for 7 hours. Believe me, we are not just throwing numbers and percentages around.
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helloitsb
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Well said CC :)

Edit-BTW anymore input from your guy at HGX? Same stuff?
ajurcat
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Candy Cane wrote:Okay...here goes:

Some of you are being very childish...and you know who you are. Just stop.

A couple of things you guys need to think about before calling everybody a liar and calling the event a 'bust.'

1.) Very few of you are well versed in the world of meteorology. You do not have the privilage of viewing extensive data from behind the scenes nor do you go on other expert opinions. As opinion is just that...an opinion. It doesn't make BB right any more than me saying it's going to be 80 degrees tomorrow. I can say that all day long, but like Mark Twain said, "it's not the things we don't know that hurt us, but rather the things we know for sure that are true, that just ain't so.

2.) There is not one single thing that has changed in the models except a trend towards HEAVIER QPF. Boys and girls, that equates to higher snowfall totals.

3). This low is far stronger and the air is far colder and the moisture supply is in greater abundance than in 2004. This is NOT the same event.

4.) Did you know that the National Weather Service gets graded on its forecasts? If they issue a watch or warning that does not verify, then they lose government funding. It is crucial that they do the best job possible. A WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING IS NOT ISSUED LIGHTLY NOR ARE THEY EXPECTING UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS IF THERE WAS NOT A GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE SO. This is not just the thinking of HGX but DFW, Austin (who called it a worst case scenerio for them), Corpus and Brownsville. Can all those offices be wrong??????

5.) People really need to quit desguising opinion for facts. I wish there was a rule that you had to produce a link or show a graphic when making statements. If you don't think it will snow, put your money where your mouth is and SHOW US WHY.

I think everybody needs to take a step back, breathe and relax. It IS going to snow area wide starting tomorrow night. I am confident in this. For the first time in 3 winter storms here, I feel good about my chances of accumulating snow in my yard. I just got home from work where i have been starring at this for 7 hours. Believe me, we are not just throwing numbers and percentages around.
Thank you!!!!
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wxman666
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helloitsb wrote:Well said CC :)

Edit-BTW anymore input from your guy at HGX? Same stuff?
I'm wondering the same thing. I think we're on the verge of the evening update. Is that so CC?
Ready for severe weather season!!
TexasMetBlake
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My friend at HGX says Winter Storm Warning by morning more than likely. Could be as soon as the next update.
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weatherag
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geez candy cane way to talk down to everybody ;)
'There's a spirit can ne'er be told...'
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helloitsb
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Candy Cane wrote:My friend at HGX says Winter Storm Warning by morning more than likely. Could be as soon as the next update.
Thank you and again tell him thanks from all of us :D
skidog38
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watch the radar light up with blues, pinks, and some burberry.
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wxman666
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Candy Cane wrote:My friend at HGX says Winter Storm Warning by morning more than likely. Could be as soon as the next update.
WOOT!! I had a hunch. Thanks so much! :D
Ready for severe weather season!!
TexasMetBlake
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I'll tell you what, what is most remarkable is that Brownsville and Corpus are both under a Winter Storm Watch for the second time in 7 years. Usually it is decades between watches. Take a look. It **may** be a long time before we see all the offices under a Winter Storm Watch at the same time. Although the way the winters have been the past few years, it may only be a few months. LOL
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