Re: February Weather. Severe Threat/Arctic Blast/Then Snow?
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 10:06 am
All Weatherbug / Wunderground in Austin reporting between 24 - 28
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Check out hour 72-78. It's there. Low is closer to the coast and moisture further N a bit...Candy Cane wrote:Wow. 12z GFS showing no precip...
srainhoutx wrote:The American models as well as the others are struggling, folks. I'd be very cautious regarding 'finer details', right now.
srainhoutx wrote:The American models as well as the others are struggling, folks. I'd be very cautious regarding 'finer details', right now.
Huh? It's going to snow just about everywhere it appears. The low is further north than in '04. Accumulations will vary, yes. I think getting your hopes up about a blizzard will lead to big disapointment but not snow.biggerbyte wrote:Well, the cold front is obviously here. Time now to talk about the snow. Folks, I would NOT count on it. Better chances along the coast, simply because of the greater moisture potential. Even those areas could end up with a mix. Next, folks away from the coast, but south of I10, would have less mix, but varying accumulations. Finally, areas north of I10 would see all snow, but even less precip. Harris County, South, maybe you will get lucky, depending on your location. Montgomery County, north, pretty much SOL. This is how things look today, and it is not my final answer. That comes on Wednesday. I will say it again... Don't get your hopes up, folks. Any of you.
Understating, ticka1. Look at how everything is dropping in regards to temps, storm strength and durations below freezing. The models are under estimating the strength and depth of the Arctic Air Mass and the dynamics involved. This is far from 'set in stone' regarding the finer details for Thursday/Friday. My hunch is we will see an over achiever. Of course, those are just my thoughts, for what that’s worth.ticka1 wrote:srainhoutx wrote:The American models as well as the others are struggling, folks. I'd be very cautious regarding 'finer details', right now.
Understating or overstating the forecast? Just curious about your comment.
Candy Cane wrote:Huh? It's going to snow just about everywhere it appears. The low is further north than in '04. Accumulations will vary, yes. I think getting your hopes up about a blizzard will lead to big disapointment but not snow.biggerbyte wrote:Well, the cold front is obviously here. Time now to talk about the snow. Folks, I would NOT count on it. Better chances along the coast, simply because of the greater moisture potential. Even those areas could end up with a mix. Next, folks away from the coast, but south of I10, would have less mix, but varying accumulations. Finally, areas north of I10 would see all snow, but even less precip. Harris County, South, maybe you will get lucky, depending on your location. Montgomery County, north, pretty much SOL. This is how things look today, and it is not my final answer. That comes on Wednesday. I will say it again... Don't get your hopes up, folks. Any of you.
Aha, I am not the only one seeing this. We had leveled at 40 for a long while and then the winds kicked up(still are) and we are now at 34f and dropping at the abode here in W Houston. Even seeing a few sprinkles popping on radar. Wrap around anyone? I'm not sure we will wait till that late to get to freezing though. If the rate here at my house continues we could be at freezing around the noon-2pm time frame.Candy Cane wrote:Mr T and I agree that there is another front to our north...a polar boundary that is currently moving through College Station. They dropped 4 degrees last hour while we rose a degree to 44. I suspect we're going to see the temps tank here once the boundary arrives. I still think we'll be at freezing by 4pm.srainhoutx wrote:The winds has increased again rather dramatically in the past 15 minutes here, redneckweather. Getting gusts in the 30+ range again after an hour lull, if you can call it that.
Remember that old saying, BB. 24 hours out is a lifetime in weather world. No one whats to be too cute or bold just yet. Do you blame them? I surely don't. A question was just asked on S2k regarding where will the moisture come from. Pro Met AFM responded, and I quote...biggerbyte wrote:CC, projections all week, including today, have suggested that areas south, especially along the coast, would see the greatest potential. This is mainly due to where the greatest moisture would be. That is subject to change, however. Wxman57, Jeff, the folks over at Impact, etc., are all in agreement on this. That is the way it looks to me today as well, and I suspect it is why Heller is not exactly excited.
Two places...1st place is that huge body of water known as the Pacific. 700mb flow will be sucking in Pacific moisture...moistening up the column. 2nd place is the Gulf. The low will throw plenty of moisture in.
This is very similar to Christmas 2004...but perhaps with a little more moisture available...and colder temps (so a higher ratio).
vbhoutex wrote:Aha, I am not the only one seeing this. We had leveled at 40 for a long while and then the winds kicked up(still are) and we are now at 34f and dropping at the abode here in W Houston. Even seeing a few sprinkles popping on radar. Wrap around anyone? I'm not sure we will wait till that late to get to freezing though. If the rate here at my house continues we could be at freezing around the noon-2pm time frame.Candy Cane wrote:Mr T and I agree that there is another front to our north...a polar boundary that is currently moving through College Station. They dropped 4 degrees last hour while we rose a degree to 44. I suspect we're going to see the temps tank here once the boundary arrives. I still think we'll be at freezing by 4pm.srainhoutx wrote:The winds has increased again rather dramatically in the past 15 minutes here, redneckweather. Getting gusts in the 30+ range again after an hour lull, if you can call it that.
I am so glad I did my freeze preps yesterday in my shorts instead of in this NASTY weather.