Candy Cane wrote:I'll tell you what, what is most remarkable is that Brownsville and Corpus are both under a Winter Storm Watch for the second time in 7 years. Usually it is decades between watches. Take a look. It **may** be a long time before we see all the offices under a Winter Storm Watch at the same time. Although the way the winters have been the past few years, it may only be a few months. LOL
My sentiments exactly. Time to take a step back and take it all in.
Last edited by txsnowmaker on Wed Feb 02, 2011 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Whistles and cheers for CC! Thank you, thank you! And huzzah for the pro mets on here who spend time with us after many, many hours of staring at data and sitting through meetings. Thanks, guys.
Some of you are being very childish...and you know who you are. Just stop.
A couple of things you guys need to think about before calling everybody a liar and calling the event a 'bust.'
1.) Very few of you are well versed in the world of meteorology. You do not have the privilage of viewing extensive data from behind the scenes nor do you go on other expert opinions. As opinion is just that...an opinion. It doesn't make BB right any more than me saying it's going to be 80 degrees tomorrow. I can say that all day long, but like Mark Twain said, "it's not the things we don't know that hurt us, but rather the things we know for sure that are true, that just ain't so.
2.) There is not one single thing that has changed in the models except a trend towards HEAVIER QPF. Boys and girls, that equates to higher snowfall totals.
3). This low is far stronger and the air is far colder and the moisture supply is in greater abundance than in 2004. This is NOT the same event.
4.) Did you know that the National Weather Service gets graded on its forecasts? If they issue a watch or warning that does not verify, then they lose government funding. It is crucial that they do the best job possible. A WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING IS NOT ISSUED LIGHTLY NOR ARE THEY EXPECTING UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS IF THERE WAS NOT A GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE SO. This is not just the thinking of HGX but DFW, Austin (who called it a worst case scenerio for them), Corpus and Brownsville. Can all those offices be wrong??????
5.) People really need to quit desguising opinion for facts. I wish there was a rule that you had to produce a link or show a graphic when making statements. If you don't think it will snow, put your money where your mouth is and SHOW US WHY.
I think everybody needs to take a step back, breathe and relax. It IS going to snow area wide starting tomorrow night. I am confident in this. For the first time in 3 winter storms here, I feel good about my chances of accumulating snow in my yard. I just got home from work where i have been starring at this for 7 hours. Believe me, we are not just throwing numbers and percentages around.
Well said. If this ends up just being a frozen rain event, it is going to be really bad. It could shut the city down for days and even weeks. Frankly, I would be really concerned for frozen rain. I rather have snow than frozen rain.
In many ways, I think weather is a social science, it is hard to predict. It is like trying to predict how the economy will perform.
Candy Cane wrote:I'll tell you what, what is most remarkable is that Brownsville and Corpus are both under a Winter Storm Watch for the second time in 7 years. Usually it is decades between watches. Take a look. It **may** be a long time before we see all the offices under a Winter Storm Watch at the same time. Although the way the winters have been the past few years, it may only be a few months. LOL
I don't ever remember a time when Brownsville was under one. Though I've only lived in the Houston area for 8 years. This is surely some crazy stuff though!! I am a little nervous with HGX, Jeff, and TWC calling for downed power lines and trees around here. Our fireplace operates by remote but needs electricity to get the pilot light fired up...go figure. So..when we lose power (again), we really won't have much but blankets. I have filled the tub with water just in case. Our garden hose is already frozen solid. Thank god our stove is gas operated.
The pro's on this site have forgotten more about weather than I know, and all those things you said CC was cool! I have been reading all day long with and occasional comment and I have come one conclusion...my brain is starting to turn to jelly and I need a beer! I do feel confident with all the pro mets in this community forum. I feel they are right on target and have acted with caution when dealing with this weather event as not to lead anyone down the garden path. Some folks on here would have jumped off the sinking ship only to see it safley sail away to the projected port and some are so snow blind that they would try and paddle the boat even if it sunk. All and all great forum with alot of passionate folks...! It's kinda like a horse...which do you want one that lays down and goes to sleep when you let go of the reins or one that tends to run off in its own direction...I like being around the wild horses, it is much more fun!
CAK wrote:I mentioned a few pages back if you look at radar, the moisture seems to be getting pushed back off coast and south. Is this expected? Why do I have a feeling we may not see nearly as much moisture as predicted.
because the ULL is in MX....hasnt ejected yet across Texas...but it will.....
33 here under clear sky in Pearland...might make 30F tonight or maybe upper 20's if it stays clear...
Thanks, makes sense...a little. Is there a particular map/model I can view that shows the low and maybe were it's predicted to go? Trying to learn how to read these things, I'm a total novice and there is a huge learning curve
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011
...FROZEN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
.VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM NOW THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...THE APPROACH
OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
WEST...COMBINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WILL PRODUCE SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...
MAINLY FROM THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF FRIDAY.
TXZ248-249-252-031115-
/O.NEW.KBRO.WS.W.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KBRO.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110204T1800Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...
RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA
907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011
...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST
FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
FRIDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE LONE STAR STATE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE FORMATION OF
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...
WILL PRODUCE FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND NOON
THURSDAY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR THAT RUNS FROM MCALLEN
TO FALFURRIAS. WEST OF THIS CORRIDOR...SNOW AND SLEET ARE LIKELY.
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...AND SNOW AND SLEET WEST OF THE
CORRIDOR. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO A HALF
INCH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.
ALSO...MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH COLD ARCTIC
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 5 AND 15
DEGREES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
RESIDENTS OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO OR BELOW 20 FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. PERSONS NOT
ACCLIMATED TO THESE EXTREME VALUES MAY EXPERIENCE FROSTBITE IF NOT
PROTECTED...AND COULD DIE.
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST ONE INCH ON ROADS OR
WALKWAYS...AT LEAST ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION...OR ICE
ACCRETION OF ONE EIGHTH INCH OR MORE ON EXPOSED SURFACES.
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO POSTPONE THEM
UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
Last edited by TexasMetBlake on Wed Feb 02, 2011 9:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
helloitsb wrote:That means we shall be close to follow?
HGX taking awhile. I'm guessing they're in the process of upgrading us right now, IMO.
Yeah I've learned a lot about HGX from this event (I've learned a lot over all) and they like to make sure everybody around it seems like our Winter Storm Watch, CC was saying they were planning on posting it but it was after surrounding offices posted theirs
Rich wrote:For what it's worth the 09 snow event started with temps in the upper 30's to near 40 I believe, and we all know how that turned out!
When it snows, it is not that cold I found. After the snow, it is cold.
It does usually seem that way. I was just trying to set some members at ease who were worried about temps tonight not falling as fast as predicted earlier.
Last edited by Rich on Wed Feb 02, 2011 9:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sorry if we stirred the pot for anyone! I know everyone seems to be a bit tense with all of this goin on. We are a bit stir crazy here (Been sittinn at St. Lukes since 9am waiting) I was sick of arguing with my brother about the satellite images so I posted what he was telling me so he would shut up about it! I totally agree with all the promets this will be one heck of an event for us. Again sorry if I upset anybody!
Rich wrote:It does usually seem that way. I was just trying to set some members at ease, who were worried about temps tonight not falling as fast as predicted earlier.
correct me if I'm being ignorant but I believe with the clouds rolling in yeah, we our lows will bust tonight but we shouldn't get above freezing tomorrow with the clouds and moisture involved with that moving in, but surface temperature don't mean all that much (generally speaking) its the cold air above and that is fine so far
Wow I get on only to see a lot of tension on the boards. Everyone needs to understand that this system is very complicated and like many times in the past things can still change. I am going to say this right now, stop the bickering or I will start deleting posts or worst. I see the "fighting" has stopped as of now and I am not trying to bring it back up but we need to provide accurate information to our guests and other members and not useless posts. Everyone has done a wonderful job so far and lets continue that trend. Thanks
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Rich wrote:
It does usually seem that way. I was just trying to set some members at ease who were worried about temps tonight not falling as fast as predicted earlier.
No problems with that. Also, the layer of cold air is deep.
Rich wrote:
It does usually seem that way. I was just trying to set some members at ease who were worried about temps tonight not falling as fast as predicted earlier.
No problems with that. Also, the layer of cold air is deep.
Hey, I was wondering if you knew if there was a sort of list of the average temperature at the beginning of snow events in Houston?
Rich wrote:
Hey, I was wondering if you knew if there was a sort of list of the average temperature at the beginning of snow events in Houston?
Don't know about that, but I do remember quite a few snow events here and in south Louisiana over the past 50 years, and temps now and tomorrow will start out colder than in most of the events I've witnessed. Time for bed.
I have filled the tub with water just in case. Our garden hose is already frozen solid. Thank god our stove is gas operated.
