February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[rain]

Jeff is a ROCKSTAR in my book!!

We need a "like" button here because I agree! Thanks for your insight and clear wording Jeff.

I was thinking the same thing Julie...I was looking for the like button

[srainhoutx]

Well, it looks like we have good start to the American models. Hopefully the NAM and WRF as well as faster (rapid update/hires) mesoscale models will shed some light. Thanks to all our fine Pro Mets for your input. We are fortunate to have such knowledge in our community. If it's going to be this cold...let it snow....let it snow....let it snow...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Thu Feb 3 01:43:17 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 030143
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0140Z THU FEB 03 2011
THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS
AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...32 CANADIAN...70
CONUS...2 CARIBBEAN...AND NO MEXICAN STATIONS.
00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
ASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM.
MAJ/91376 - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 523-513 MB...WET BULB EFFECT.
$$
HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[JulieC]

Jeff is a ROCKSTAR in my book!!

We need a "like" button here because I agree! Thanks for your insight and clear wording Jeff.

I was thinking the same thing Julie...I was looking for the like button

Too much Facebook for me I guess.

[ronyan]

Temps still 35 F here! I don't think we're going to get near 23 tonight.

[rain]

Temps still 35 F here! I don't think we're going to get near 23 tonight.

I don't think it started dropping until this time last night.

[wxman57]

Wow! I have been gone all day and just got caught up with all the chatter. I have to say that the NWS is not agreeing with much that is being said in here. As a matter of fact, they have changed their mind three times since the storm watch was issued. First it was 1 to 3 inches of snow. Then they raised that to 2 inches minimum. Now it is up to 1 inch of sleet/snow mix. They have to either be out of their mind, or they see something that no one else can see.

I'm not bashing them, but rather trying to process all of this.
I really feel that the current forecast from them is just not accurate, accumulation wise. The mix part might be, but even that is in question right now.

I actually agree with you. It's really a guess as to how much snow may accumulate. We have 3-4 models all with different solutions. There's no way we can now predict whether 0.1" or 0.5" of rain will fall in the next 24 hours. And that's the difference between an inch and 5 or more inches of snow. We can make an educated guess as to which model has the best chance of verifying, but that's about it. Without any actual atmospheric sounding anywhere near Houston, we can't even tell which model's upper air profile was initialized best. And that makes a big difference as far as any thin warm layer aloft. For all we know, there's a layer of 35 degree air between 5000-10,000 ft above Houston right now. No way to tell.

Can't tell where the heaviest precip will actually fall until the event unfolds and precip bands start forming. Jeff went with a worst-case, NWS went with the GFS and lighter accumulations. I'm not confident in either solution. Like Jeff, I'm confident we'll all see SOME snow. But accumulations may be very spotty - a trace here, 3" not far away north or south.

I think that there's a good chance that enough of some type of precip will fall tomorrow evening that roads may become icy, particularly bridges/overpasses. My best guess would be that Houston will see between 1/2" and 3" of snow in spots. It's quite possible that there will be a warm layer aloft, resulting in more sleet in some areas than snow. We can debate it all night, but no one will really know until tomorrow night as it develops. Doesn't matter at all what the 00Z models say, or the 6Z runs.

[ajurcat]

Jeff and ALL the other WX guys/gals, thank you so much for all the info & guidance. If it wasn't so cold, I would pull out the rum in honor of Dan - but on second thought, maybe I will anyway.

[wxman57]

Temps still 35 F here! I don't think we're going to get near 23 tonight.

I agree, no way we'll see low 20s. Maybe 27-28 at IAH. Too cloudy and cold air advection is diminishing.

[biggerbyte]

Wow! I have been gone all day and just got caught up with all the chatter. I have to say that the NWS is not agreeing with much that is being said in here. As a matter of fact, they have changed their mind three times since the storm watch was issued. First it was 1 to 3 inches of snow. Then they raised that to 2 inches minimum. Now it is up to 1 inch of sleet/snow mix. They have to either be out of their mind, or they see something that no one else can see.

I'm not bashing them, but rather trying to process all of this.
I really feel that the current forecast from them is just not accurate, accumulation wise. The mix part might be, but even that is in question right now.

Based on ewhat exactly? I've seen you dismiss this storm quite a bit this week, but please explain why you think that instead of just saying it. I'm curious to hear why you feel so strongly that its going to be a non event.

Huh? I think maybe you should go re-read my post. It has nothing to do with me, other than agreeing with some of the chatter in this forum this evening. My post is about the NWS not agreeing at all. As far as my questioning this event earlier... I had good reason, and I was not the only one. This continues to be a very fluid situation, so opinions will change frequently. I don't think anyone should be cocky about their opinion, because the outcome for winter events are very unpredictable around these parts. About all we can say for sure with this event, is that we will not just get rain.

[srainhoutx]

Bad choice of words, BB. None of our Pro Mets have been 'cocky'.

[cristina99]

it's 30 degrees here in The Woodlands. I am sure it will go down some more. 10 more degrees, I don't know.

[redneckweather]

26.6 here at my house and slowly dropping.

[srainhoutx]

28.6 and slowly falling as well. Winds finally relaxed.

[helloitsb]

I've got 28.6 right now

[jett7777]

Any thoughts on what the weather is going to be in Sugar Land?

[biggerbyte]

Hmm! Upper twenties tonight, meaning temps could rise above freezing on Thursday. Top that off with less advection of cold air. Recipe for some sort of negative forecast change?

[Andrew]

Hmm! Upper twenties tonight, meaning temps could rise above freezing on Thursday. Top that off with less advection of cold air. Recipe for some sort of negative forecast change?

Heavy clouds with a mix of precip will prob keep us from Getting above freezing especially Friday.

[helloitsb]

clouds seem to be clearing out, is that just me being an amateur amateur or are they?

[wxman666]

Any ideas of what the next HGX update will have in store? Possible upgrade to Winter Storm Warning?

[CAK]

I mentioned a few pages back if you look at radar, the moisture seems to be getting pushed back off coast and south. Is this expected? Why do I have a feeling we may not see nearly as much moisture as predicted.