February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Mr. T]

Euro is showing a good amount more moisture but a tad warmer temps

.18 in in total not all snow though some sleet/ fr/ and rain.

Looks like it would all transition to snow though as the cold core moves overhead...

I like moist cmc and euro... Let's hope the gfs can follow

[Big O]

Using same text output, and assuming surface temperatures are cold enough for snow, IAH gets between 1-2" of snow.

[ticka1]

Email from Jeff Lindner this afternoon:

NWS has issued a Hard Freeze Watch issued for all of SE TX for Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.



Powerful arctic cold front will sweep across the region Tuesday with temperatures forecast to fall to/below freezing over all locations by Tuesday evening and to or below 25 degrees by 200-300am Wednesday morning and remain in the 20’s until 1000-1100am Wednesday. Hence a Hard Freeze Watch has been issued (2 hours at or below 25 degrees) and includes all counties including the coastal counties although this may be marginal at the beaches. Will likely see highs only in the mid 30’s on Wednesday for a few hours above freezing before going back below freezing Wednesday afternoon through Thursday midday. North winds of 15-25mph will produce wind chills by Tuesday evening in the 1’s and 10’s across the entire region for much of the period and residents should limit their exposure to the outside temperatures to short periods of time.



Preparations for extended sub-freezing temperatures should be completed today.



Winter storm threat continues to loom Thursday night into all day Friday for the entire TX coast

[srainhoutx]

FEMA Region IV Briefing from earlier this morning....

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 0Brief.pdf

[Mr. T]

Using same text output, and assuming surface temperatures are cold enough for snow, IAH gets between 1-2" of snow.

And further north than that, too...

[srainhoutx]

jcarr just called me and stated that Coastal and Galveston Bay areas have some extremely dense fog developing. Just an FYI...

[harpman]

I know it was asked a few pages back by ticka and myself and I'm not sure it was answered, but where is the leading edge of the cold air currently? Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

I know it was asked a few pages back by ticka and myself and I'm not sure it was answered, but where is the leading edge of the cold air currently? Thanks.

Just passing Amarillo/OKC heading S...

[AggieBuckeye]

wow, look at the difference between lubbock and amarillo right now!

[djjordan]

jcarr just called me and stated that Coastal and Galveston Bay areas have some extremely dense fog developing. Just an FYI...

Dense Fog Advisory issued for coastal counties to account for this sea fog.


...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY...
...HARD FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY. A
HARD FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE SEA FOG WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THE FOG IS THEN EXPECTED TO
EXPAND INLAND DURING THE EVENING. THE FOG WILL LIFT TUESDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FOG WILL LIMIT
THE VISIBILITY TO UNDER ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL SEND WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN THEIR PREPARATIONS FOR THIS VERY COLD
WEATHER AS SOON AS THEY CAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW. AND IF WAITING UNTIL
TUESDAY EVENING...YOU WILL BE OUTSIDE IN THE COLD BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.

READINGS MIGHT NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REMEMBER TO TAKE CARE OF PLANTS...PETS...PIPES... AND PEOPLE.
ALSO REMEMBER TO WINTERIZE OR DRAIN YOUR SPRINKLER SYSTEMS AS
THEY WILL BE PRONE TO THE ELEMENTS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WATCH MEANS TEMPERATURES BELOW 25 DEGREES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

[vci_guy2003]

That FEMA briefing was weak. Lol.

[nuby3]

I have read posts suggesting that this MAYBE could be similar to 04 when models starved the system for moisture several days before. Might as well not get caught up in the details of each model run and just look at the bigger picture for now.

[cristina99]

ditto on the FEMA brief. This is getting quite exciting. I had a question asked b a co-worker. I didn't know the answer, so maybe one of "seasoned" ones can answer. The rain that falls tomorow, would there be a chance of that freezing overnight?

[tireman4]

BTW, Goodland KS 10F, NAM thinks it is 25F there.

NAM thinks it is 32F AMA, 27F there.[/quote]

15F off in Goodland KS, 10-15F off in Denver.[/quote]


So temp are running about 5 to 15 degrees lower than model concenses, that's going to effect precip types sooner than later.


From Storm2k....Captin Crunch....

[tireman4]

ditto on the FEMA brief. This is getting quite exciting. I had a question asked b a co-worker. I didn't know the answer, so maybe one of "seasoned" ones can answer. The rain that falls tomorow, would there be a chance of that freezing overnight?

I am not a meterologist ( I am a historian...LOL), but I would think the wind should dry everything out......before we hit freezing...

[don]

Nearly all the GFS ensemble models have much more precip than the operational run for Fridays system. They look a lot closer to the Canadian.

[tireman4]

Once the leading edge of the "main push" of arctic air enters Oklahoma, the OK mesonet will be a good source to use to watch as the airmass progresses southward toward the Red River.

Here is the link to the OK mesonet homepage: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php

Also, here are a few good links to individual sections of the webpage:

Temperature: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weathe ... emperature

Wind Speed and direction: http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/meso ... tbarbs.gif


From EWG at Storm2k....this will help folks see the air moving in....

[randybpt]

Seems the arctic air is moving faster south then originally thought. By my calculation at its current forward speed it should be in southeast texas by 9 am. Anyone else observe this.

[tireman4]

I swear I heard Dan say this awhile back and I could be WAY off, but Dan stated that fronts move slower at night.....Or did I hear that wrong....

[cristina99]

there are a lot of people in here today. . . . i'm just so excited, I might have the heebeejeebees.