February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[wxman57]

It would appear that the GFS and NAM have been correct with their predictions that the low center would form well offshore rather than closer to the coast as per the Canadian. As I look at surface obs offshore, I do NOT see any easterly winds bringing moisture into the upper TX coast as there would be with the low forming closer to the coast. Instead, I see NNE-NE winds east of Galveston. That's not good for precip here. In addition, as AFM mentioned, wv loop indicates drier air moving in from the west aloft. Again, not good for precip. And a look at radar is not encouraging at all. There's still nothing to our southwest. There should be precip there by now.

The air may be just a bit TOO cold and dry for much snow here tonight. I do still think there may be a chance to get some accumulations, but I'm not looking for widespread 1"+ amounts. Moisture just looks to be too limited. Hopefully we at least get a few snow flurries by morning.

[Snowman]

All schools closed on Friday in Harris County.

Man event should get going in the 03Z to 06Z time period.

so this dry air will just disappear?

Look at the 12Z CRP sounding it is fairly moist...increasing lift this evening and 850mb moisture advection will moisten things up. Td's starting to rise slightly.

12Z WRF nailed the coastal event this early afternoon and then showed a break prior to the main event late this evening

oh alright thank you very much jeff that makes me feel better! how much accumulation did the 12z WRF show?

[TexasMetBlake]

There is a TON of dry air to our west, but I suspect the column will begin to moisten up before long. Anybody have a link to soundings at IAH?

[texasrattler]

All schools closed on Friday in Harris County.

Man event should get going in the 03Z to 06Z time period.

What time is 03Z?

Nice little conversion chart here:

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/zulu-utc.html

[rnmm]

It would appear that the GFS and NAM have been correct with their predictions that the low center would form well offshore rather than closer to the coast as per the Canadian. As I look at surface obs offshore, I do NOT see any easterly winds bringing moisture into the upper TX coast as there would be with the low forming closer to the coast. Instead, I see NNE-NE winds east of Galveston. That's not good for precip here. In addition, as AFM mentioned, wv loop indicates drier air moving in from the west aloft. Again, not good for precip. And a look at radar is not encouraging at all. There's still nothing to our southwest. There should be precip there by now.

The air may be just a bit TOO cold and dry for much snow here tonight. I do still think there may be a chance to get some accumulations, but I'm not looking for widespread 1"+ amounts. Moisture just looks to be too limited. Hopefully we at least get a few snow flurries by morning.

Does this also mean a decrease in ice accumulations? Will we get any ice at all? Just trying to learn. Thank you.

[redneckweather]

Everyone take a deep breathe and let reality sink in. It's not gonna feel good but reality is, this is a BUST and a very big let down for everyone. In a matter of hours we go from 1 to 3 inch accumulations (isolated 4 to 5 inch spots) to hopefully seeing some flurries out of this thing. How's that for a big slap in the face?

I'm going back outside to my fire and to let the family know the news.

[Snowman]

I dont know what to believe anymore i am so confused.

[weatherag]

I agree in that the main show should kick off in the overnight hours.....as the operational guidance indicated all along it was going to be too try for anything today. Concerned with overall moisture values.....but hard to ignore deep plume of moisture streaming in off the Pacific. Moisture should be pulled more northward toward the upper Texas Coast as the upper level low ejects across central Texas.......however a lot of dry air is noted on water vapor. Still think around an inch looks good (with isolated 2 inch totals) as this is what the operational guidance continues to indicate (although it will probably be hit & miss). Maybe higher totals up to our northwest closer to the track of the ULL. Could be just too dry though for anything significant.

Just my 2 cents. I'm as optimistic as everyone else is. We seem to always get the shaft in nwestern fort bend. In 2004 we got maybe an inch with the southern part of the county getting half a foot. Last winter I missed out on that december snow day.....so my luck is due to change

[Frigid Aggie]

New to posting, but I have been following for a while.

I know nothing about forecasting and such, but there are an awful lot of people (not on this forum) convinced this is going to happen. All of the newscasts, the OEM, every single school district in the vicinity.

I don't know what the dry air will do. I do know that a plethora of folks who likely have access to far more data than I do, think that we are going to have a significant winter weather even in SE Texas overnight. I would be fairly surprised if they are all just dead wrong.

That's my $0.02. And that plus $5.95 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks to keep you warm.

[jdman]

It would appear that the GFS and NAM have been correct with their predictions that the low center would form well offshore rather than closer to the coast as per the Canadian. As I look at surface obs offshore, I do NOT see any easterly winds bringing moisture into the upper TX coast as there would be with the low forming closer to the coast. Instead, I see NNE-NE winds east of Galveston. That's not good for precip here. In addition, as AFM mentioned, wv loop indicates drier air moving in from the west aloft. Again, not good for precip. And a look at radar is not encouraging at all. There's still nothing to our southwest. There should be precip there by now.

The air may be just a bit TOO cold and dry for much snow here tonight. I do still think there may be a chance to get some accumulations, but I'm not looking for widespread 1"+ amounts. Moisture just looks to be too limited. Hopefully we at least get a few snow flurries by morning.

Ding!! Ding!! Ding!! Winner, winner, chicken dinner!!! On the bright side, at least the pipe hidden in the corner of my attic wasn't the only thing to bust.

[clute28]

Dose this remind anyone of a song ..how about ..turn out the lights the part is half way over lol

[wxman57]

There is a TON of dry air to our west, but I suspect the column will begin to moisten up before long. Anybody have a link to soundings at IAH?

There are no soundings between Corpus Christi and Lake Charles, only model estimates of soundings. That's what makes it so difficult here. All the models appear to have a different idea what's happening aloft CURRENTLY, so how can they predict what will happen very well?

I'm not seeing any moisture surging into our area, just drier air. Air column can't moisten-up without it coming from somewhere.

[TexasBreeze]

Now wxman57 says hopefully flurries? He's jumping ship. I smell a forecast BUST coming... maybe.

[snowman65]

2 more hours of all this negativity and I will RE-OPEN all schools for tomorrow!!!

[Snowman]

2 more hours of all this negativity and I will RE-OPEN all schools for tomorrow!!!

Im glad they are not reopening. but they might as well! BUST!

[michmich]

All the tv mets are sticking to their story and still predicting precip tonight through tomorrow morning. Guess we'll have to watch again at 6?

I'm staying optimistic...and no matter what that big pot of chili will be smelling up the house tonight.

[snowman65]

I just had chili myself...GOOOD stuff!

[tireman4]

I wonder if HCC opens tomorrow...LOL

I had a ton of sarcasm with that one.....ha ha

[TexasMetBlake]

***UPDATE***

It is not going to snow. Please go about your daily business as usual tomorrow. Thanks. (serious sarcasm). Isn't that what you all wanted to hear?

[randybpt]

Wow we went from.epic.historic winter storm to one of the biggest bust