January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[srainhoutx]

I'll not have time to post the afternoon discussions, but the few I have seen are undercutting MAV/MOS temps for next week. Some by a 5-7 degree range and we don't know what the air mass will look like, yet. Hopefully one of our fine members will post the various NWS AFD's this afternoon so we can see what their thoughts are at this time. Many folks are asking questions concerning this event and we'll do our best to provide good and factual information as we have always strived to do.

[wxman57]

Ensembles are trending away from any extreme event next week as well as from any extreme cold the following week. Remember when 7-9 days ago the GFS was forecasting snow here this coming weekend? It seems that this winter we cannot trust the model runs much out beyond 48 hrs. Things could still turn around, though, meaning that some Arctic air MAY build in NW Canada this weekend and move south.

Those models are bullish, than back off, and than bullish again. What's up with that?

It all depends on how each model run is initialized. Very slight changes in the initialization data can have a BIG impact in the longer range.

[Ptarmigan]

It all depends on how each model run is initialized. Very slight changes in the initialization data can have a BIG impact in the longer range.

That's why I don't put stock in those models. I used them as guidelines.

[weatherguy425]

Danggg HGX got bullish on the sunday event...

THE OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SATURDAY AND THEN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH ROTATES EAST THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS TSRA/POSSIBLY AN A STRONG ONE OR TWO NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL BE A COLD RAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A
CONCERN IS THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT THE ECMWF IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS GETTING CLOSE TO A RAIN SNOW
MIX AND THE ECMWF IS LOOKING LIKE A SNOW AND RAIN MIX FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS (CLL-UTS- LIVINGSTON) NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. HAVE
OPTED TO ADD RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE NORTHERN AREAS BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY STICKING TO ROADWAYS BUT TREES AND
GRASSY AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

[Ptarmigan]

The February 1899 freeze had a pressure of over 1060 millibars. Now, I don't think we will see that next week, since that type of freeze happens about every hundreds of years.

Here is the February 1899 Weather Records. Quite a cold month! Fourth coldest February on record!
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/27 ... F6DBFB.pdf

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_feb

[TexasMetBlake]

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND DRY AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND
THEN TRACK OFFSHORE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. SLOW TO MODIFY AIR WILL SLIDE BACK INTO THE MATAGORDA BAY
REGION SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND STRENGTH OF THE LL WIND FIELDS
SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AM CURRENTLY FAVORING A TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BUT AS IT
DEEPENS IT WILL DRAG BACK ABUNDANT MOISTURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE LOW OFF THE CA COAST LOW THIS AFTERNOON HAS STOPPED
RETROGRADING BUT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE IT GETS MOVING EAST AND
THEN SLOWLY SLOWLY. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
BIG BEND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SATURDAY AND THEN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH ROTATES EAST THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS TSRA/POSSIBLY AN A STRONG ONE OR TWO NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL BE A COLD RAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A
CONCERN IS THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT THE ECMWF IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS GETTING CLOSE TO A RAIN SNOW
MIX AND THE ECMWF IS LOOKING LIKE A SNOW AND RAIN MIX FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS (CLL-UTS- LIVINGSTON) NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. HAVE
OPTED TO ADD RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE NORTHERN AREAS BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY STICKING TO ROADWAYS BUT TREES AND
GRASSY AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. PRECIP TAPERS OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN WRAP AROUND.
MONDAY EVENING THE MUCH TOUTED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING
INTO NORTH TEXAS AND BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL BE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. THE PATTERN DOESN`T SUPPORT THE BITTER COLD AIR THAT WAS
PROGGED TO COME SOUTH A FEW DAYS AGO. IT WILL STILL BE COLD BUT
NOT AS COLD...LOWS 29-33 WILL BE COMMON TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
WARMING INTO THE 40S...DIPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 20S NORTH
AND MID TO UPPER 30S COAST. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS LINING UP ACROSS CANADA AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS THE FOLLOWING SATURDAY (15TH). 45

[Ptarmigan]

Danggg HGX got bullish on the sunday event...

THE OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SATURDAY AND THEN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH ROTATES EAST THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTHERN CWA SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS TSRA/POSSIBLY AN A STRONG ONE OR TWO NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL BE A COLD RAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A
CONCERN IS THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT THE ECMWF IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS GETTING CLOSE TO A RAIN SNOW
MIX AND THE ECMWF IS LOOKING LIKE A SNOW AND RAIN MIX FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS (CLL-UTS- LIVINGSTON) NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. HAVE
OPTED TO ADD RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE NORTHERN AREAS BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY STICKING TO ROADWAYS BUT TREES AND
GRASSY AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

This just got more interesting. I would not be surprised if some of the rain/snow mix is in Houston. Too early to tell.

[srainhoutx]

Very interesting.

Dallas/Ft Worth:

MUCH MORE INTERESTING WEATHER BEGINS ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. YESTERDAYS AND LAST NIGHTS RUNS BROUGHT THE LOW THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TODAYS RUNS DO NOT BRING THE TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WHICH IS MAKING THIS FORECAST
DIFFICULT. A FEW AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY NEED TO EMPHASIZED TO
ACCURATELY PORTRAY OUR CURRENT THINKING. FIRST...THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS IS
CONCERNING BECAUSE IT ALLOWS A SURFACE LOW TO WRAP UP AROUND 6Z
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE SYSTEM
AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWEL
COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IF SURFACE TEMPS ARE
COLD ENOUGH. SECOND...THE ECMWF PROGS THE SYSTEM TO BE CLOSED AT
500MB UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN ITS CENTERED NEAR EL PASO.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH TEXAS
AS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT
IS PULLED INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. CONVERSELY...THE CANADIAN
KEEPS THE SYSTEM CLOSED AT 500MB. THIS SOLUTION SUGGESTS MORE COLD
AIR COULD BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE POTENTIAL TROWAL
FEATURE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. IN
CONCLUSION...OUR CURRENTLY FORECAST HAS COLD RAIN ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS MONDAY.
CURRENT MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW...AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE WITH
ARCTIC FRONTS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. NO PRECIP IS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH STRONG ARCTIC FRONTS LIKE THIS OFTEN PRODUCE
STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH CAN RESULT IN PRECIP
PRODUCTION WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE.

THE MUCH DISCUSSED ARCTIC PATTERN REMAINS PROGGED SO COLD
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN 30S AND LOWS IN 20S....ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.


New Orleans:

.LONG TERM...
CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS STOPPED
RETROGRADING AND SHOULD BECOMING PROGRESSIVE AS ONE SHORT-WAVE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND THE PIN-WHEEL SYSTEM
STARTS FEELING THE AFFECTS OF STRONG SUB-TROPICAL FLOW ON THE
EQUATOR SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. MODEL JET PROGS INDICATE
100-120KT JET MAX ON DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN ABOUT A 40KT SYSTEM SPEED AROUND
30N LATITUDE. THIS WOULD PUT IT IN THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AREA ON
SUNDAY. GFS SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED NORTH GULF LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
PASSAGE WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE COLD SECTOR
AND MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS MAINLY
IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH SIMILAR FEATURE AND SLOWER...COMING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF ECMWF LATELY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH KJAN...OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO ECMWF TIMING
WITH A SLIGHT HEDGE TO COMPROMISE ON LOCATION OF SURFACE
LOW...THEREBY LEANING TOWARDS A SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL ONSETTING SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
ENDING MONDAY MORNING. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A MORE
COMPLEX WEATHER PICTURE AT MCCOMB AREA WITH A COLD RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO WET SNOW ON WET-BULB EFFECT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET FOR QUITE A WHILE BEFORE WARM LAYER ALOFT LOWERS DUE TO
LATENT HEAT RELEASE TO SHRINK THE SUB-FREEZING LAYER ENOUGH TO
REDUCE TO EITHER A VERY COLD RAIN OR A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN...DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT THE TIME OF PRECIP. AT
THIS TIME...SHOWED DOMINANT WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE SLEET BUT
THIS IS USUALLY NOT THE CASE...OFTEN WITH SOME TRANSITIONAL
PRECIPITATION INVOLVED DURING THESE DYNAMIC SYSTEM PASSAGES. IN
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES...TEMPERATURE PROFILES
LOOK TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING THE ENTIRE TIME TO PRETTY MUCH
MAINTAIN A COLD RAIN PROCESS THAT MAY BREIFLY TURN OVER TO SLEET
FOR A VERY SHORT DURATION PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION ENDING. MODEL
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...PARTICULARLY FOR TIMING AND
DEGREE OF COLDNESS...BUT CAUSATIVE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY TRACKABLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN EASTERN PACIFIC. AFTER THIS EVENT...MODELS
SHOW SOME STEADY MODIFICATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND SEEM TO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON INTENSITY OF ARCTIC AIRMASS INDICATED IN THE DAY7-10
PERIOD...THOUGH PATTERN IS STILL INDICATED AND FAVORED...BUT
INTENSITY OF SURFACE SURGE WAS UNDERCUT BY ABOUT 10MB OVER NW
CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THIS IN FUTURE DISCUSSIONS.

Shreveport:

OUR FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO OUR W...AS THE CLOSED LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SW OF THE CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY
MORNING...AND INTO THE DESERT SW EARLY SATURDAY. ELEVATED PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP/ACCELERATE E
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BIT SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS BACK TO A FARTHER SRN SOLUTION
FROM A CPL. DAYS AGO...WHERE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS A FEW
HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE THE SE TX/SW LA COAST. THIS IS QUITE A DRASTIC
CHANGE FROM THE 06Z GFS RUN EARLY THIS MORNING,,,WITH THE NEW 12Z
ECMWF CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER MODEL RUNS IN A MORE NRN TROUGH SOLUTION
ACROSS CNTRL TX/SCNTRL LA...AND RESULTING SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
SE TX/SRN LA COAST. HAVE TAYLORED THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH
THE ECMWF...BUT WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF -SHRA MAINLY SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...WITH THE PRECIP. BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...AND MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE E/NE QUADRANTS OF THE SFC-850MB LOW...WHICH IS DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF TO HUG THE SE TX/SW LA COAST SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE CUT BACK THE
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR ALL BUT DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA AS THIS SYSTEM SPREADS E. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE 850MB LOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN S OF THE REGION AND LIKELY CUT OFF GULF INFLOW...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY OF QPF FROM N TO S...WITH THE
GREATER TOTALS FOCUSING ACROSS ECNTRL TX/NCNTRL AND SRN LA. AS A
RESULT...HIGH END LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
OF E TX/N LA...WITH CHANCE POPS FARTHER N TO RESPECT LIGHTER QPF
TOTALS.

THE SFC-850MB LOW ACROSS SRN LA WILL ENHANCE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE
MID-SOUTH REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE OPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE
A TRANSITION OVER TO A LIGHT SLEET/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SE OK/SW AR/ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC-850MB
LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGHINESS ALONG THE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX AND WRN AR. THIS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND
ON ANY REMAINING MOISTURE LEFTOVER...AND THE TIMING/POSITION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY...BUT
WEAK OVERALL FORCING WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP...IF IT EVEN DOES SO AT ALL.

DID INSERT MENTION OF LIGHT SLEET/SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR SE OK/SW
AR MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DRIFT E ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PLUNGE A DEEP ARCTIC
AIR MASS SEWRD INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN THUS
FAR THIS WINTER SEASON...ESPECIALLY AS THE SNOW PACK SHOULD BE FARTHER
S ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO/NE/KS/POSSIBLY NRN OK. ANY WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE
LIGHT...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. BY THE TIME TEMPS ARE ABLE TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING MONDAY
NIGHT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE DIMINISHING...THUS AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A WINTRY THREAT FOR OUR REGION OTHER THAN THE
PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES INVADING OUR AREA. DID LOWER TEMPS QUITE A
BIT IN THE EXTENDED NEXT WEEK...SUCH THAT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN
BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST A 48-60 HR PERIOD. INCREASING ELEVATED
MOISTURE BENEATH THIS UPPER VORTEX LOOKS TO ULTIMATELY DICTATE HOW
LOW MINS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE STRONG 1040+MB ARCTIC RIDGE
IN PLACE. IN ANY CASE...EXTENDED PERIODS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...AND PREPARATIONS FOR THIS PROLONGED COLD SNAP
SHOULD BE MADE BY THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM.

[srainhoutx]

18Z GFS: 1059mb High in Western Canada. 1054mb heading into MT. 1050mb into the Central Plains @ hour 132 and much colder, so far.

[srainhoutx]

Hour 150 18Z GFS: 1057mb high streching from E AK to MT. Closed -30's within the high pressure ridge from NW Canada into MT. 1040+ mb over CO/KS.

[srainhoutx]

By hour 174, 1058mb Western Canada. 1046mb near MT/ND. 0 degree 850 temps drapped along Coastal TX/LA/MS/AL.

[srainhoutx]

Much colder than the last 3 GFS runs. Cold air briefly retreats as storm develops in the longer range (near 240 hour). Cold air again drops S as the storm wraps up with wintry weather across the Southern Plains, Central and N TX. Enough from me. Have fun folks. Things are looking a bit better this afternoon for those that like cold and wintry weather chances.

[ronyan]

Much colder than the last 3 GFS runs. Cold air briefly retreats as storm develops in the longer range (near 240 hour). Cold air again drops S as the storm wraps up with wintry weather across the Southern Plains, Central and N TX. Enough from me. Have fun folks. Things are looking a bit better this afternoon for those that like cold and wintry weather chances.

Thanks for the update! Keep the good (cold) runs coming!

[wxman57]

Much colder than the last 3 GFS runs. Cold air briefly retreats as storm develops in the longer range (near 240 hour). Cold air again drops S as the storm wraps up with wintry weather across the Southern Plains, Central and N TX. Enough from me. Have fun folks. Things are looking a bit better this afternoon for those that like cold and wintry weather chances.

Yes, 18Z GFS is colder than 12Z. But it isn't indicating any precip in the cold air for us. Raw data indicate some heavy rain Saturday night with temps in the low-mid 50s. In fact, the 18Z run forecasts 2-3" of rain Saturday night. Could be some winter precip north of Houston, though. A couple of freezes next week, maybe a hard freeze Wednesday.

Of course, the cold air is still not in NW Canada. It should start building there over the next few days.

[vci_guy2003]

So is it certain we won't have bitter cold air as was forecast a couple days ago, or could the models go back to that?

[TexasMetBlake]

My buddy down at HGX says 'snow event has legs' on Sunday says his co-worker <shhhhhhhh>

[weatherguy425]

My buddy down at HGX says 'snow event has legs' on Sunday says his co-worker <shhhhhhhh>

Hmmmmm

[sambucol]

My buddy down at HGX says 'snow event has legs' on Sunday says his co-worker <shhhhhhhh>

For our area in SE TX? Sunday?

[Andrew]

18z looks really good especially for the type of setup. I would like to see more runs like that


Looks like I am staying up for the 00z again.

[ronyan]

18z looks really good especially for the type of setup. I would like to see more runs like that


Looks like I am staying up for the 00z again.

Are you sure you want to subject yourself to another 0z run? However, if the 0z run starts going colder then we may have something.