January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman666]

The CMC (Canadian) drops a convective bomb at hour 96 across TX and sweeps the cold front straight S into S TX and offshore by hour 132...1061mb High in AK as well...

Oh my gosh...that looks pretty nasty! How reliable is the CMC in these situations?

All the models are struggling with that feature as noted in the HPC discussions I posted earlier. With that said, I'd expect the SPC to start ramping up there interest as we get closer.

Same here. I am checking the SPC daily. I at least expect to see a low end slight risk issued by the day 3 outlook tomorrow.

[biggerbyte]

I wish to add that I'm not saying the big chill is not going to happen. It is just that confidence is marginal ATM. Saturday will either bring greater confidence, or less. That's the day when everyone should be able to present a valid statement about the weather next week. One thing is for sure... If this very cold airmass develops off to the NW, we can forget about using the models to predict its future behavior. When it cuts loose, south it will fall. Of course, the weaker the push, the quicker it can get pushed east, post frontal passage.

[svrwx0503]

As far as the Sat night/Sun morning severe threat, 12z progs do not indicate much instability; however the impressive upper level dynamics and wind energy aloft should be enough for storms south of the warm front to produce damaging winds and maybe an isolated tornado. Right now my current thinking is that the best severe threat will be across our central and southern zones but all of the region will likely see some threat of an isolated strong storm along with some more much needed rainfall. Will nail down more details once the event gets closer.

[wxman57]

Ensembles are trending away from any extreme event next week as well as from any extreme cold the following week. Remember when 7-9 days ago the GFS was forecasting snow here this coming weekend? It seems that this winter we cannot trust the model runs much out beyond 48 hrs. Things could still turn around, though, meaning that some Arctic air MAY build in NW Canada this weekend and move south.

[C2G]

I'm liking those trends wxman57. In fact let's go ahead and bring spring down the chute instead of an arctic air-mass.

[wxman666]

As far as the Sat night/Sun morning severe threat, 12z progs do not indicate much instability; however the impressive upper level dynamics and wind energy aloft should be enough for storms south of the warm front to produce damaging winds and maybe an isolated tornado. Right now my current thinking is that the best severe threat will be across our central and southern zones but all of the region will likely see some threat of an isolated strong storm along with some more much needed rainfall. Will nail down more details once the event gets closer.

Okay by me, I'm always ready for a little weather action, haha. Of course, provided no one gets injured or killed.

[wxman666]

Ensembles are trending away from any extreme event next week as well as from any extreme cold the following week. Remember when 7-9 days ago the GFS was forecasting snow here this coming weekend? It seems that this winter we cannot trust the model runs much out beyond 48 hrs. Things could still turn around, though, meaning that some Arctic air MAY build in NW Canada this weekend and move south.

Wish we had some reliable models that would be at least somewhat more accurate before 48 hours.

[ronyan]

I'm liking those trends wxman57. In fact let's go ahead and bring spring down the chute instead of an arctic air-mass.

I don't like spring much, and summer is even worse. I hate the heat.

[wxman666]

I'm liking those trends wxman57. In fact let's go ahead and bring spring down the chute instead of an arctic air-mass.

I don't like spring much, and summer is even worse. I hate the heat.

Same here. Let's at least have somewhat of a winter first, huh?

[C2G]

I don't like spring much, and summer is even worse. I hate the heat.

Believe you missed your ideal area to live in by many miles.
Southeast Texas has a sub-tropical climate, historically.

[ronyan]

I don't like spring much, and summer is even worse. I hate the heat.

Believe you missed your ideal area to live in by many miles.
Southeast Texas has a sub-tropical climate, historically.

Well, besides the weather being too hot and humid it's a nice place to live.

[biggerbyte]

Don't you hate it when you allow yourself to get psyched up about something and then....

I feel like the little kid that Santa forgot.

Oh well!!!

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the Euro is coming in a bit stronger regarding the weekend severe weather event as well as the cold front. Also of note is a lot of wintry precip across the Southern Plains/N TX into LA.

[redneckweather]

Post of the euro results after it gets through running if ya could srain? Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

Post of the euro results after it gets through running if ya could srain? Thanks!

I will. Looks very interesting for the Southern Plains, Deep South and SE regarding wintry weather. Multiple disturbances riding the upper flow and dropping precip. 1054mb high dropping into MT @ hour 144. Very high heights across AK. More in a bit and images as well.

[srainhoutx]

Freebie Euro out to 168...cold air is certainly there...

[randybpt]

Well guess I can pack up snow machine. Doesn't look like we will get anything colder than what we have so far this year. Just another tease......bust.....from our trusty ole models. I really don't see a need in model to past 7 days.

[srainhoutx]

Euro suggests the cold arrives Monday. It also suggests we may not get above freezing until sometime Thursday, with another storm heading in. Images beyond 168 shortly. Oh, and the large high sits across E AK/NW Canada and does not shift W as we have seen the last couple of runs.

[snowman65]

Apparantly, I don't know how to read those....to me, yellow means hot, purple means cold....looks hot to me......

[ronyan]

Euro suggests the cold arrives Monday. It also suggests we may not get above freezing until sometime Thursday, with another storm heading in. Images beyond 168 shortly. Oh, and the large high sits across E AK/NW Canada and does not shift W as we have seen the last couple of runs.

Are you talking about this monday or next?