January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Portastorm]

The entire last half of today's 12z GFS run shows a cold and wintry pattern for much of Texas, including some action late in the period for you folks in the H-town area!

[srainhoutx]

It is certainly encouraging to seen run after run of the GFS regarding the cold air. Again the 12Z GFS suggests a 1050+ Arctic High heading S from AK and repeated reinforcing shots of cold air. Add to the mix the moisture that just keeps on coming and viola! We have some interesting days ahead folks to start a New Year.

[TexasMetBlake]

I'm not buying into the solutions yet. While the GFS has been nothing if not consistent, it still appears there isn't much upper-level support to transport the air down this far. While a near 1060 high is impressive, it never moves out of Alberta. It's definitely interesting though. Keep in mind that it doesn't have to be absolutely frigid to get snow here. It has to be 'just cold enough.' So we'll see.

[srainhoutx]

The entire last half of today's 12z GFS run shows a cold and wintry pattern for much of Texas, including some action late in the period for you folks in the H-town area!

Mighty close, Portastorm...

[biggerbyte]

Sure would be nice. I'll jump on board around the 7th.
In the meantime, wishing and dreaming never hurt anyone.. No?

A hint, vs. no hint in long range models may not mean anything in general, but it sure can bring out the kid in those of us that love this stuff.

[srainhoutx]

Sure would be nice. I'll jump on board around the 7th.
In the meantime, wishing and dreaming never hurt anyone.. No?

A hint, vs. no hint in long range models may not mean anything in general, but it sure can bring out the kid in those of us that love this stuff.

Not at all and we are not talking 300+ hours out either, BB. The 12Z Euro suggests a storm as well in the 192 hour time frame with 'colder air'...

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Update is out...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
216 PM EST SAT JAN 01 2011

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 04 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 08 2011


...FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...

FINAL PROGS MADE NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO SHOW LOWER PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES FRI-SAT VICINITY OF THE LARGE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS.
THE GEFS MEAN HAD EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH MOST MAJOR FEATURES ON
THE MAP.

THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE AFFECTING NORTH AMERICA THIS FIRST WEEK
OF 2011 WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING EPISODE AS A
HUGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WORKS ITS WAY WSW FROM SRN GREENLAND
TO N CENTRAL CANADA...WITH ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE
PERIOD. SW OF THE BLOCK...LOW HEIGHTS AND COLD AIR WILL BE WILL BE
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF S CENTRAL AND FAR SERN CANADA INTO THE
NERN QUADRANT OF THE LOWER 48. THE LOCATION OF THE COLD AIR IS A
GOOD FIT TO TELECONNECTIONS ON THE STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY WORKING
WSW FROM SRN GREENLAND. SIMILAR TO MUCH OF DECEMBER...THE REGION E
OF THE ROCKY MTNS WILL BE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE 00Z/01
AND 12Z/01 GEFS MEANS WERE A BIT COLDER THAN THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF THIS PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. THOUGH
SOMEWHAT UNCHARACTERISTIC...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE BLOCKING MOVING ACROSS FAR NERN AND NRN CANADA.

NEW ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW THE SOLUTION FROM OFF THE CA
COAST ACROSS THE SWRN STATES REMAINING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DAYS
3-5/TUE-THU. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS IN
THE NEW 12Z/01 DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE CLUSTER
HAS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD ALONG 30N TOWARDS 120W BY
THU/FRI DAYS 5-6.

OUR FINAL PROGS HAVE MADE CORRECTIONS TO THE 500MB PATTERN ALONG
THE W COAST THAT HAVE SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE EARLY BLEND OF 80%
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TO BEING 40% EACH OF THE ECENS MEAN AND GEFS
MEAN BY DAYS 5-7. FINAL 500MB PROGS HAVE BEEN FURTHER ADJUSTED
TOWARDS THE NEW 12Z/01 ECMWF. RECEIPT OF LATEST ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI
PLOTS HIGHLIGHTED A POTENTIAL PROBLEM SHOWING UP OVER THE NE
PACIFIC AND WRN NOAM DAYS 5-7. THE 00Z/01 ECMWF WAS DEVELOPING A
NEW TROF NEAR 130W THU-SAT W OF THE VANCOUVER/BRITISH COLUMBIA
AREA. WE SUSPECTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF MIGHT BE CORRECT IN LOWERING
HEIGHTS DAYS 5-7 IN A BROAD AREA OFF THE W COAST OF NOAM...BUT WE
WERE NOT SURE ABOUT HOW RAPIDLY THE FALLS WOULD ERODE THE RIDGE
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER SWRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. THE NEW 12Z
ECMWF IS IN FACT MUCH SLOWER TO BRING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE
PACIFIC NW DAYS 6 AND 7....AND WE FAVOR ITS LATEST TREND.

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS: THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE
SCALE PICTURE: A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RACING ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT OF THE NATION TUE...A VORTEX
PLUNGING SE FROM WRN HUDSON BAY TUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY FRI; A LEFTOVER UPPER LOW
MEANDERING SOMEWHERE TO THE W OF SRN CA; AND A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
RIDGE MOVING INTO WRN CANADA THU DAY 5 THAT EVENTUALLY GETS
FLATTENED BY HEIGHT FALLS TO THE W THEREAFTER. AS USUAL...THE
DEVIL IS IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE
CONCERNING POSSIBLE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS FRI DAY 6 VICINITY OF
LONG ISLAND IN RESPONSE TO LARGE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THAT TIME. SPREAD OF UPPER LOW
SOLUTIONS FOR FRI RANGE FROM NY STATE IN THE 12Z/01 GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN/12Z ECMWF TO WV/KY IN THE NEW CANADIAN. SRN NEW ENG HAS THE
HIGHEST THREAT FOR ANOTHER REALLY BIG SNOW FROM THIS SYS. WHATEVER
THIS DEVELOPING STORM DOES...WE ARE HIGHLY CONFIDENT OF ANOTHER
EPISODE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND BITTER WIND CHILLS IN ITS WAKE
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF WAS ON THE N SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BY DAY 6 HAVING ITS UPPER LOW OVER NY STATE.
FLOOD

[biggerbyte]

Awesome addition to my comments, srain. The potential is there, and we are close enough out that it can not be written off. If we still see this in six more days or so... Very exciting, indeed.

I know you join me in hoping it all pans out. It seems Texas has been the middle of a winter sandwich, with a funky center.


It is time. It is OUR turn.

Turn up the dream weaver, newbies.

[srainhoutx]

Let's see, we are now 4 for 5 via the GFS (wintry weather in TX) regarding next weekend. There may be something to it after all.

01012011 18Z GFS_3_2011010118_F192_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

01012010 18Z GFS_3_2011010118_F204_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

[biggerbyte]

The anticipation builds...

My sister in TN had a white Christmas.
Time for payback..

Muhahaha..

[wxman57]

I'm still not seeing anything to indicate that the airmass in place next weekend will be cold enough for anything but rain here. Perhaps up north in Dallas...

[txsnowmaker]

I'm still not seeing anything to indicate that the airmass in place next weekend will be cold enough for anything but rain here. Perhaps up north in Dallas...

Just to clarify, does your observation include the period beyond next weekend as well? My understanding was that many of today's comments in this thread were focused on the 10th and beyond. Thanks as always for your thoughts, even if they aren't always what us cold/winter weather seekers want to hear...

[Andrew]

18z still shows a pretty nice ridge in Canada:





The thing is, with this system being 200+ hours out a lot is probably going to change. Who knows, in 5 days the GFS could show an air-mass that will be cold enough to produce some sort of wintry precip down here. It's close already.

[srainhoutx]

I for one will be interested to see what the 00Z suite offers. I do expect the "night crew" will be active in the week ahead...great to see so many folks chiming in and watching…and don’t be afraid to join us…we really don’t bite…

[Portastorm]

The 12z Euro shows a 1060mb high coming south out of Alaska at 240 hours. Wow. Yeah, I realize the folly of taking a run too serious that far out but when the GFS has shown something similar for the last few runs, it seems there will be a strong high pressure and Arctic air building south. I'm wondering what delivery mechanism might be there to bring it to the Southern Plains.

Heat Miser (Wxman57) seems to think it won't happen by next weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Some interesting developments via the 18Z ensembles. Fits well with the -EPO expected...there is your 'mechanism'...

[redneckweather]

Don't expect wxman to jump on the arctic express anytime soon. He'd rather be wearing spandex shorty shorts than wind proof winter bike riding pants anyday of the week.

[TexasMetBlake]

** New Hemispheric Record Possible **

The town of Omyakon, Siberia, Russia, per Wx Underground, is forecasting a low temperature of -92 degrees. That's 92 BELOW ZERO on Wed. night. If that happens, it will break the HEMISPHERIC record of -90 set on Feb. 26th, 1922--also in Siberia. With the changing pattern and the gfs hinting at a 1060 high building in the Yukon, we need to pay close attention. If arctic air like that were to dislodge and head to Texas, it would make last year's freeze look like a warm temperature inversion. LOL

[TexasMetBlake]

Thanks goes out to Mr. T for the dates and the info.

[Baseballdude2915]

Wx Underground has backed off, now it will be a balmy -85F Wednesday Night in Ojmjakon. WOW.

Looking at the Wiki page for that town, they stay below 0 from late October to late March.