January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[srainhoutx]

18Z NAM suggests a very potent storm system crossing TX. That model suggests some possible wintry weather near Central TX now @ hour 54. Portastorm will likely faint.

[losmabies]

Thank you for the explanation

[tireman4]

18Z NAM suggests a very potent storm system crossing TX. That model suggests some possible wintry weather near Central TX now @ hour 54. Portastorm will likely faint.

\

Srain,

I think he is already gone. They are going to need paddles to revive him.....

[Andrew]

18Z NAM suggests a very potent storm system crossing TX. That model suggests some possible wintry weather near Central TX now @ hour 54. Portastorm will likely faint.

How many times have we seen surprises pop up? We are still one to two days out so you never know what can happen.

CMC continues to be a lot stronger with this cold weather. I mean I understand the Canadian is known for its cold weather bias but you would think it would begin to fall into line with the other models. It is getting pretty close to the event so... Like I said how funny would it be if the Canadian ended up being right?

[Andrew]

18Z NAM suggests a very potent storm system crossing TX. That model suggests some possible wintry weather near Central TX now @ hour 54. Portastorm will likely faint.

\

Srain,

I think he is already gone. They are going to need paddles to revive him.....

Where is he? I have the ones I used for the forum last night.

[tireman4]

Page him at S2K....LOL...He is the one hyperventilating and not feeling so good.

[tireman4]

18Z NAM suggests a very potent storm system crossing TX. That model suggests some possible wintry weather near Central TX now @ hour 54. Portastorm will likely faint.

How many times have we seen surprises pop up? We are still one to two days out so you never know what can happen.

CMC continues to be a lot stronger with this cold weather. I mean I understand the Canadian is known for its cold weather bias but you would think it would begin to fall into line with the other models. It is getting pretty close to the event so... Like I said how funny would it be if the Canadian ended up being right?

I would laugh, laugh and laugh at the crazy Uncle that everyone laughed at. Shows up to the family reunions drunk, muttering strange things about voices and he ends up being right.

[biggerbyte]

Please don't give up, folks. Is it frustrating? Yes! Can it be disappointing? Yes again.

You all know my feelings toward models. They are simply a tool. They should not be used for forecasting purposes, but rather trends and possibilities. They have been indicating, for some time now, that something is going to change to give many areas in the CONUS very cold weather. They continue to broadcast this possibility. There is, without a doubt, a trend there. So much so that it can not be ignored.

For those of us that like super cold. We may have to settle for just cold for a bit. For those of us that want frozen precip.. It only has to be cold enough. We will need surface freezing temps for it to stick. Saturday will be a good day to examine any potential events for next week. It will also be a good time to look at severe storm/heavy rain potential, and who might getting frozen precip. in Texas, sticking or not.

[srainhoutx]

HGX has update and keeps the chance of wintry weather option on the table for our Northern and North Eastern Area. The heavy rain potential is very worrisome, folks...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
200 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIET CLOSE TO THE FIRST WEEK OF 2011 ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S UNDER WARM WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. ENJOY THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF EARLY JANUARY WARMTH AS WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEEING
READINGS THIS WARM AGAIN UNTIL MAYBE NEXT WEEKEND. FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE
STORMY SCENARIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING`S FORECAST PACKAGE.
WE`LL SEE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE STORM
SYSTEM OFF THE SE CA COAST CONTINUES ITS MARCH TOWARD TX. THIS STORM
SYSTEM ORGANIZES ACROSS W TX TOMORROW AND BRINGS US INCREASING CLOUDS
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SOME OF OUR FAR SW COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE BIGGER RAINS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS TX WHILE A SURFACE LOW FORMS ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MOVES TO THE NE ALONG THE TX COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AN EXCELLENT RAIN PRODUCER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...WITH TOTALS
AVERAGING 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 4 INCHES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PANS
OUT LIKE SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW...IT COULD GET WINDY ENOUGH NEAR THE
COAST FOR WIND ADVISORIES. SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE. STORMY
WEATHER WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO
AN END AREA WIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AS COLDER TEMPERATURES
FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ON THROUGH...THERE
MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION IN
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE AREA DRIES OUT.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS ONLY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
NOW. COLDER TEMPERATURES DO NOT GO AWAY NEXT WEEK AS A MUCH ADVERTISED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS
MUCH OF INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH SHOULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 50 DEGREES. 42

[Andrew]

HGX has update and keeps the chance of wintry weather option on the table for our Northern and North Eastern Area. The heavy rain potential is very worrisome, folks...

You know when QPF values are 3+ you have a problem. I could see isolated values much higher than that. Will be a wet and stormy sat-mon

[randybpt]

Looks like models have backed off any second surge next weekend. Still no cold air in nw. Canada

[srainhoutx]

Winter Storm Watches are going up at this hour. I suggest those wondering about a second surge of colder air read the AFD's across the Central and Northern Plains.

[ronyan]

Looks like models have backed off any second surge next weekend. Still no cold air in nw. Canada

Lol there's plenty of cold air in NW Canada. It's just not cold enough. What models are you referring to?

[wxman57]

Looks like models have backed off any second surge next weekend. Still no cold air in nw. Canada

Lol there's plenty of cold air in NW Canada. It's just not cold enough. What models are you referring to?

Actually, there's not. Current temps in NW Canada are running from -4 to +10F. I see a few temps to -10 to -16F in north central Canada, but nearby obs to the coldest spots are above freezing.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
330 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FOUR STATE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN
PLACE FOR A SLEET AND SNOW MIXTURE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WHILE FURTHER
NORTH...ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN INTO ALL
SNOW FURTHER SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 20 BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AND END SUNDAY NIGHT.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010-012>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-080530-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.A.0001.110109T1200Z-110110T0600Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-
BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-
GREGG-HARRISON-RUSK-PANOLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...MONROE...
IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...
LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE
330 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

*SNOW AND SLEET SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREAD INTO NORTH LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY EVENING.

*UP TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY
FALL AFTER OR IN COMBINATION WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SLEET.

*MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING...WITH BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TRAVEL TIMES ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SINCE THIS WILL BE WET HEAVY SNOW...
SOME BREAKAGE OF TREE LIMBS COULD OCCUR...RESULTING IN ISOLATED
POWER FAILURES.

[Portastorm]

18Z NAM suggests a very potent storm system crossing TX. That model suggests some possible wintry weather near Central TX now @ hour 54. Portastorm will likely faint.

\

Srain,

I think he is already gone. They are going to need paddles to revive him.....

Where is he? I have the ones I used for the forum last night.

Thanks guys. I've regained consciousness after seeing that 18z NAM. Whew.

[sleetstorm]

Would someone mind posting a map of the current temperatures in Russia so that everyone will be able to keep track, please?

[ronyan]

Looks like models have backed off any second surge next weekend. Still no cold air in nw. Canada

Lol there's plenty of cold air in NW Canada. It's just not cold enough. What models are you referring to?

Actually, there's not. Current temps in NW Canada are running from -4 to +10F. I see a few temps to -10 to -16F in north central Canada, but nearby obs to the coldest spots are above freezing.

You think -4F to +10F isn't cold? His statement was "there is no cold air in nw canada" and that is obviously an exaggeration.

[randybpt]

No its actually little above normal in nw canada at this point. Nothing out of the ordinary. For this time of year. Some people keep.sayi.g extreme cold air will build across nw canada. Im not pointing to anyone particular heck even bastardi said this was going to be coldest ja.uary since 85. Maybe im missing something. Hey I love cold weather would love to cover my 2 acres with snow but I.have.to have 25 degree wet bulb that's not happening. So ronyan quit saying I have nothing positive to say. I don't go off models you show me some -30 &-40 temps in canada

[wxman57]

You think -4F to +10F isn't cold? His statement was "there is no cold air in nw canada" and that is obviously an exaggeration.

No, I don't. Not for mid winter in the Arctic Circle. I'm looking for temps there of -20F to -40F.

By the way, I'm looking at the 18Z NAM and it keeps the frozen precip farther NE than the 12Z across NE TX. It actually shows less frozen precip across Texas:

12Z NAM:


18Z NAM: