January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman57]

I have a family event in Brenham on Saturday and a husband who is travelling to Austin (driving) on Monday. Will there be weather issues to worry about?

I am by no means a weather expert, but it just seems with all this cold air and some moisture - our area could luck out once and get some winter precip.

Thanks for everyone's input on the weather!!

Nothing to be concerned about. Cloudy, a good bit warmer, and patches of light rain with a deepening southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Low in the upper 40s Saturday with a high around 60. Warmer with less of a chance of light rain by Monday. Mostly cloudy. Temps from the 50s to around 70.

[srainhoutx]

precip on radar. can we get anything tonight?

There is some virga (moisture aloft) at my location in NW Harris County. Lower levels still seem too dry to support much, if at all, regarding anything falling to the surface.

[biggerbyte]

Temps are in the upper 30s in my area. Loving it, I am. Don't expect a big warmup today, folks. Lower 40s for many. Mid. 40s for some. Nice and chilly. The cold will be the story of the day.. Not the sleet.

Meanwhile, we wait for the weekend to see how things look for next week. Though everything is still iffy, Texas could be in for a cold and nasty period.

Stay tuned..

[srainhoutx]

HGX not buying that warming trend until Saturday...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 PM CST THU JAN 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS KEEPING COLD TEMPS TRAPPED IN PLACE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES TOO LOW TONIGHT SO AGAIN WENT ABOVE THEIR
SUGGESTIONS. ALSO UNDERCUT THEM FOR HIGHS ON FRI AS EXPECT THE
CLOUD COVER TO HINDER HEATING. SFC HIGH DOES CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST AND DEWPOINTS DO START A SLOW UPWARD CLIMB...BUT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL & SW COUNTIES THE GULF DOESN`T LOOK TO BE
ABLE TO OPEN BACK UP AT THE SFC (MORE OF AN ERLY VS SELY FLOW) UNTIL
LATE SAT OR SUNDAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...S/W OFF THE WEST COAST
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 4 CORNERS TOMORROW THEN SWD INTO NORTH
CNTL MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE TAKES THIS FEATURE
(AND IS NOW LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE) OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST LATE
SUNDAY. SO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ISN`T LOOKING QUITE AS LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND...BUT DO EXPECT SOME DECENT SHRA COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NRN ZONES AS ATMOS MOISTENS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE H85
RIDGE SITUATED OFF THE TX/LA COASTLINE. SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SCOUR MOST
OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EXPECTED SOMETIME TUESDAY-ISH (STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN
MODELS).

[weatherguy425]

Good read out of Midland...

A FRONT WILL BE FAVORED TO PASS TUE MORNING...THUS COOLER
TUE BUT STILL DRY. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE W WED PM AND
THE 85H THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES SENDING TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND THEN AGAIN FOLLOWED BY SURGE OF COLDER AIR
POSSIBLY ARCTIC AIR? OF INTEREST IS THIS POTENTIAL FOR SURGES OF
COLD POLAR OR ARCTIC AIR AS INDICATED BY THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION
(AO). THE AO STAYS NEGATIVE (SUGGESTIVE OF COLD AIR INTRUSIONS)
THRU THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK OR SO...THEREAFTER THE AO
BECOMES LESS NEGATIVE SUGGESTING A DECREASED POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC
AIR. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS IN 8-14 DAY 5H HEIGHT ANOMALIES
THAT AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS THEY TOO
WILL BE TRENDING UP AND TOWARD NORMAL AS THE POLAR VORTEX SHOWS
SIGNS OF MOVING FARTHER E ALLOWING FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO MOVE
FARTHER E ONTO THE W COAST.

[srainhoutx]

Forecaster Johnson from San Angelo offers a good read as well...

THIS WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS IS POISED TO
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPS UP IN
THE SOURCE REGION OF WESTERN CANADA RANGE FROM -20F TO -40F WITH
MSLP VALUES AROUND 1042 MB. A GOOD SNOWPACK EXISTS ACROSS CANADA BUT
BECOMES RATHER PATCHY ONCE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF MODIFICATION AS IS APPROACHES AND SHOULD NOT BE
NEAR AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC FRONT. I UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
VALUES ON TUESDAY BY 5-10 DEGREES THINKING THAT THE MODELS MAY BE
UNDER DOING THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...THE COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN RAPID
LEE CYCLOGENESIS TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE REALLY IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK
BUT DIFFER DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
13/12Z ECMWF PINCHES OFF A SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PACNW
AND EVENTUALLY DEEPENS THIS FEATURE INTO A BOWLING BALL CUT OFF LOW
NEAR THE SOCAL COAST. MEANWHILE...THE GFS RETAINS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING A MUCH...MUCH WEAKER UPPER LOW.

THIS LEADS TO INCONSISTENCIES IN THE LATTER PERIODS REGARDING
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN. WILL WE SEE THE SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL INTRUSION
THURSDAY/FRIDAY? THIS RESULTS IN A VERY WET PATTERN PER THE ECMWF
AS THE BOWLING BALL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA WITH THE STRONG SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE. THE GFS SHOWS NO SUCH FROPA ON THURSDAY
WITH THE COLD AIR STILL BOTTLED UP INT THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO
VALLEY. I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WITH A COOLER
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH I OMITTED PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW PENDING AN
IMPROVEMENT IN MODEL CONSISTENCY.

[C2G]

35 degrees heading into the noon hour. Now THIS is the weather I like!! You can take the heat...all of it and never show your face around here again.

Thankfully, regardless of your Pro met status, we live in southeast Texas and the heat will win out.
Cold weather is miserable and depressing.

[biggerbyte]

Upper 30s all day.. Woo Hoo...

Loving it.. Loving it... Etc.

[Ptarmigan]

Both the 12z UKMET and Euro show strong ridging developing off the Pacific Coast at 144 hours. Could be that positive PNA showing its stuff and a prelude to more Arctic air into Texas?!

You read my mind, Portastorm.

A more positive PNA means cooler winter.

[srainhoutx]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a report or two from the El Campo/Wharton area of some light sleet in the near future.

[Baseballdude2915]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a report or two from the El Campo/Wharton area of some light sleet in the near future.

Watching the radar as you posted that.
Here in Dickinson looks to track right over me in the next hour or so. Sitting at 39.5 here. I can HOPE.

[Ptarmigan]

It is very light, but I think sleet could be falling.

[sleetstorm]

I am also relishing this upper thirties day. So, another cold front is anticipated to come through this area next Tuesday followed by another arctic front next Thursday only that one is not going to be as potent as this last one was? Do I have that pretty much summed up right?

[skidog38]

[srainhoutx]

High pressure ridge has settled over the Metro Houston area. It's awfully dry out there...

[srainhoutx]

00Z’s have started. The NAM suggests our upper air disturbance will pass quickly. Now what will the weekend hold and beyond? I suspect the night crew will be active and this thread will pass 200 before long…

[srainhoutx]

The NAM suggests a chilly rain on Saturday...

[srainhoutx]

Longer range NAM suggests some -35's along the Western side of the Polar Vortex in Canada. Not too shabby for a mesoscale model, even at this range...stepping down...have fun and goodnight...

HGX Update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
846 PM CST THU JAN 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
AND IS GETTING THICKER AS WELL. UPPER JET DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA AND HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES SO HAVE ADDED
SPRINKLES FOR THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR LOWS ON THE COAST WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY. INLAND
THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL AND AND MAY REACH
FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND TOMORROW AND
LIMIT THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. LATEST 00Z NAM INDICATING THE RAIN
TO HOLD OFF SATURDAY FOR ALL BUT THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADS EAST.

[Andrew]

Moisture return next week from the gfs is stronger:

[Andrew]

Look at that -40!