January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman57]

It cut off the end but it showed another icing event by the 8th.

It doesn't go to the 8th. The 18Z GFS ends at 12PM on the 6th. And I believe that is convective precip you're seeing on the 6th, as the temperature is well up into the 50s.

[srainhoutx]

That was off the HGX NWS site. I suspect that was the 12Z data.

[wxman57]

That was off the HGX NWS site. I suspect that was the 12Z data.

Ah, yes, the 12Z GFS was significantly colder on day 16. It did indicate frozen precip then:

[sleetstorm]

39ºF is the current temperature here in Baytown.

[srainhoutx]

What an interesting pattern unfolding tonight for much of the US. Numerous short waves (upper air disturbances) are riding up and over the West Coast Ridge. The 12Z (01/21/2011) output received some valuable W Pacific RECON data that will continue on the 24th of January. Virtually all global guidance suggests a surge of much colder air that has been building in Canada/W AK will push S. A cross polar flow still looks very possible as we see a Ridge of High Pressure develop just E of Greenland (E based –NAO). The pattern remains very progressive, meaning a rapid NW flow during the coming week. All in all a very interesting pattern is evolving and will need to be monitored, IMO. That’s the thumbnail sketch tonight. It’s nice to see all the interest in our local forum. I suspect the night crew will be active as well. Have fun folks. What a fitting way to celebrate the nearly 1 year anniversary of our new platform.


Of course those are just my thoughts

[Andrew]

Just got home and I see I have missed a lot. I am heading out in a second but one thing I want to say about this long term track. At this range the best thing to look at is the pattern. Does it suggest a colder or warmer pattern? That is all we can really speculate at this range. Certain temps will not come into picture until 5< days out. Precip will be even harder to predict. One last thing be careful about the longer range is when the gfs predicts moisture. For one the resolution is greatly reduced creating an allusion of huge amounts of moisture and two I have seen so many cut off lows predicted by the gfs only to disappear in the shorter range. With all this said it is interesting that the gfs is predicting sooo cold of weather and it helps that the other models are trending in this same way. In all we should see some sort of cold air around Feb 2.

[randybpt]

24 here west of. Beaumont this morning I see. It didn't take long for our blizzard and cold to disappear on the models. Hey but don't worry they will be back just ten days from now as always

[PaulEInHouston]

24 here west of. Beaumont this morning I see. It didn't take long for our blizzard and cold to disappear on the models. Hey but don't worry they will be back just ten days from now as always

Morning from South of Houston...low of 29 here for a short time. Where's the best place to find/get/view model data that's current?

[srainhoutx]

24 here west of. Beaumont this morning I see. It didn't take long for our blizzard and cold to disappear on the models. Hey but don't worry they will be back just ten days from now as always

Oh, it's back on the 06Z...26F here this morning with frost...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[sleetstorm]

32ºF here in Baytown with frost on rooves in my neighborhood this morning.

[txflagwaver]

Frost all over the grass...was actually pretty crunchy...roof covered as well...temp on patio thermometer read 29 at about 6:00am.

[redneckweather]

24 here at my house as of 8 am. Not sure if my 22 degrees back in the fall was reached or not. Pretty darn cold either way. Coffee time.

[srainhoutx]

HPC morning update paints an interesting scenario regarding the W Coast Ridge and the impacts that feature will have in our sensible weather as next week moves along...


PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
858 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011

RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS
NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ALEUTIANS.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT OVER THE
WEST WHERE AN UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF BY THU/D5 AND
SHOW MUCH MORE SPREAD OVER THE EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
IS FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK AS RIDGING
SURGES UPSTREAM INTO EASTERN ALASKA.


FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EAST COAST
WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF AND UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
THE 06Z GFS/GEFS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT STRETCH OF RUNS WITH A
FASTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
IS QUICKER THAN THE GEFS MEAN... BUT EVEN THE MEAN IS ABOUT 12 TO
18 HOURS AHEAD OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS/GEFS
MEAN IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
WITH ONGOING CONTINUITY. BY WED/D4... THE 00Z UKMET POSITIONS THE
LOW QUITE NICELY BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF... WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER
WEST BUT TRENDING A BIT TO THE EAST RECENTLY... AND THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN... WHICH HAS BEEN EITHER OFFSHORE OR JUST ALONG THE
COAST IN RECENT RUNS. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO AN INLAND RUNNER
AND TRACKS EVEN FARTHER WEST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. COASTAL FRONT
DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LIKELY WITH A STRONG PUSH OF RELATIVELY MILD
ATLANTIC AIR TOWARD THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM
FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM MAKING FOR
QUITE A MESS FROM I-81 EASTWARD... BUT THE FORECAST RAIN/SNOW
LINE... AND PROBABLY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AREA TOO... WILL SHIFT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
WORLD CLOSER TO THE COAST. SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY.

NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD DIVE DOWN FROM CANADA AFTER SPILLING OVER THE
WESTERN NOAM RIDGING. 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE BUT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED STRONGER AS WELL. A
BLEND OF BOTH SHOULD FIT THE BILL FOR NOW. END RESULT IS LIKELY
YET ANOTHER COLD PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO ROUND
OUT THE MONTH.

FRACASSO

[Katdaddy]

29.2F with lots of frost this morning.

[ronyan]

30.0 F here for a low, pretty decent freeze even down to the coast last night. We were below freezing for 4.5 hrs.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM and GFS suggest an area of low pressure will develop along the Lower TX Coast on Sunday and progress NE on Monday/Tuesday as a frontal boundary sweeps in behind that storm. The best chances of heavier rain look to be offshore, but we'll need to monitor to see if any moisture will be further inland over the next 24 hours.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues the trend suggesting wintry weather across North/Central/SE TX...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests the Arctic front entering the TX Panhandle/N TX next Saturday as well...

01222011 12Z Euro f168.gif

That's a mighty impressive storm upstream on the 240 Euro...

01222011 12Z Euro f240.gif

[harpman]

Does s.e. La. have a chance according to these model runs?

[srainhoutx]

We'll see harpman. Still too early to dismiss anything right now, IMO. Also, Winter RECON will be busy in the days ahead, both in the Atlantic (for next weeks EC storm) and Western Pacific...

NOUS42 KNHC 221800
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST SAT 22 JANUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JANUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-053

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. A66/ 28.2N 91.5W (DROP 10)/ 25/1200Z
B. A65/ 27.3N 78.6W (DROP 10)/ 26/0000Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA49--
A. P77/ 37.6N 171.8E (DROP 11)/ 24/1200Z
B. NOAA9 09WSW TRACK77
C. 24/0800Z
D. 20 DROPS AS SHOWN ON TRACK
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 24/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE
P73/ 439N 172.3E (DROP 11)/ 25/1200Z