October 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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What shall it look like? Warm? Cold? In between? Tropical Mischief?
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DoctorMu
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Hot. Dry. Boring. Yuck.
Stratton20
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End of the first week our first legit fall front moves in, bringing much cooler temps for several days, GFS/ CMC in agreement, im taking this statement to the bank folks!
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DoctorMu
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No real FROPA in SETX until the October 10-14 range.

The NOAA guidance is almost like I wrote it, but the bar on uneventful weather is low... ;) lol

We'll have to keep an eye on the Gulf, but we're on the edge of a Western upper level Ridge that will slide any TS toward Louisiana to the Florida panhandle (again).

Hot, dry, but getting stickier. Those cats on the coast might see a shower or two as Gulf moisture surges.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1217 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Since the weather continues to be rather uneventful throughout the
short term period, let`s at least make talking about it a little
interesting! Today is National Coffee Day, so I have something good
brewing up...trust me you`re gonna love this a-latte. The forecast
for Sunday can only be described as fab-brew-lous as we start out
the morning in the low to mid 60s...and some locations across the
Brazos Valley may drop into the upper 50s again (cool beans!). Drier
air remaining in place (PW values around 1.0") will keep the
pleasant conditions grounded with skies remaining mostly clear. The
other effect of drier air is that it heats up rather efficiently.
With 850mb temperatures approaching the 90th percentile, we`ll be
firmly in above normal territory with warmer air mixing to the
surface leading to high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. That`s
not exactly roasting territory, but we do get pretty close to that
on Monday.

Temperatures on Monday might mocha quite few of us go crazy with
highs reaching the mid 90s for most locations...and a few spots
reaching the upper 90s
. Do we call this third summer after our
second false fall...I`m having deja brew from the last time! Either
way, astronomical fall isn`t exactly going smoothly for us at the
moment with the constant stirring of temperatures. Speaking of that,
overnight temperatures will see a similar upward trend with lows on
Sunday night in the mid to upper 60s followed by lows in the upper
60s/low 70s on Monday night.
I suppose asking for cooler
temperatures to stick around for more than three days at this point
in the year is a tall order. The main axis of an upper level trough
extending southwestward from the Ohio River Valley will finally
shift eastward on Monday night, which will allow for additional low
level moisture to filter in. Last but not least, with the increasing
low level moisture comes increasing potential for patchy fog
espresso-ially for areas south of I-10 and west of I-45 during the
early morning hours.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Quiet weather is expected to continue until some showers/storms possibly
edge into the beach areas beginning on Wednesday, but better/increasing
rain chances start to spread further inland (but still mainly south
of the I-10 corridor) starting on Thursday and continuing into Saturday

as a coastal trof edges deeper Gulf moisture into the western Gulf and
Texas coastal areas. We will be monitoring the Yucatan/Gulf region for
possible tropical development toward the middle to end of the week (get
the latest information on this potential system from the National Hurricane
Center`s Tropical Weather Outlook), but at this time the central/eastern
parts of the Gulf would appear to be most influenced by this system.

For temperatures, inland highs will remain in a low to mid 90s range
(Tuesday through Thursday) then edge downward into an upper 80s to lower
90s range (Friday and Saturday) due partly to increasing clouds and
rising rain chances. Low temperatures throughout the period will be
in an upper 60s to lower 70s range inland and in the mid to upper 70s
at the coast. 42
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun Sep 29, 2024 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2024 11:45 am End of the first week our first legit fall front moves in, bringing much cooler temps for several days, GFS/ CMC in agreement, im taking this statement to the bank folks!
Sorry stratton, account overdrawn on this one. ;) :lol:
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DoctorMu
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Don - I've lived here too long. :lol: The weather is becoming too predictable just reading the tea leaves and charts. These extended summers are getting very old. Would like to move in the next few years, but the job is going about as well as it ever has...so I guess we'll stick around and hope for the best weatherwise.

The goal is either Colorado or the piedmont of NC (e.g., Alamance County). Easy drive to the beach or mountains, but limited severe weather impacts by being in between.
Cromagnum
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Same old story. Summer starts in April and doesn't let up until late October.
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DoctorMu
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GFS, ICON, Euro bring in some Gulf moisture during the weekend. I'm skeptical, but there's a chance. Will probably stay offshore.
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Pas_Bon
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Most models (all except Euro at this point) hint at a hefty cool front pushing through around the Oct 15/16th timeframe. Lows in the 50's for most of the metro area look to be called for with this FROPA.
Let us hope it verifies.

At this point, I am issuing a GUMBO WATCH.
Cpv17
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Pas_Bon wrote: Mon Sep 30, 2024 4:26 pm Most models (all except Euro at this point) hint at a hefty cool front pushing through around the Oct 15/16th timeframe. Lows in the 50's for most of the metro area look to be called for with this FROPA.
Let us hope it verifies.

At this point, I am issuing a GUMBO WATCH.
It’ll probably be pushed back till late October.
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snowman65
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Hey gang!! I havent been here in quite some time but with all the arctic air on the way (LOL) its time to jump back in... who wants to have some fun??? Come on, cold!!!
Stratton20
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Snowman65 unfortunately your going to be waiting a long time for cold air lol, good new is with la nina expected to stay weak through winter, that is better news if you want more cold shots down here
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tireman4
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802
FXUS64 KHGX 011148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Seasonally warm but otherwise mostly benign conditions will prevail
in the immediate term. Surface high pressure continues to dominate
the Central CONUS, promoting an easterly surface wind over SE TX.
Over the course of the next 48 hours, the eastward shift of this
surface high will promote the gradual return of an onshore flow
regime and thereby a return to more summer-like moisture levels by
tomorrow night. Despite the presence of a fairly pronounced midlevel
shortwave just to our east, convective development will be largely
inhibited by a lack of surface instability. Forecast soundings also
indicate the presence of a fairly stout capping inversion through
the afternoon today, solidifying PoP values near zero over land. A
few scattered storms can`t totally be ruled out over the Gulf waters
(20-60 mi offshore), where both instability and moisture
availability are more favorable. Temperatures will reach the mid 90s
across the area this afternoon, approaching but likely not reaching
daily record values. Overnight lows will sit mostly in the upper
60s/low 70s.

A similar outlook is expected for Wednesday, with highs again
reaching the low/mid 90s and lows remaining in the upper 60s/lower
70s. The further eastward shift of surface high pressure will bring
back low-level moisture in earnest, an effect that should be
noticeable by Wednesday evening as surface dew points approach the 70
mark across portions of the area. Isolated rain chances will
continue to linger near the coast. Increasing moisture may also
favor the development of some overnight fog.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Heading into Thursday, things will be rather uneventful with yet
another day of above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s. One of the main stories of the long term period will be
increasing moisture from the south as a trough of low pressure
drifts through the Gulf of Mexico late in the week and going into
the weekend. This will lead to increasing rain chances, especially
for coastal and offshore locations. Rain chances do increase inland
as well as there are indications on PW values in excess of 1.6-2.0"
making its way into Southeast Texas over the weekend. This moisture
will be able to interact with upper level diffluence/divergence
along with PVA from passing shortwaves to generate showers and
thunderstorms. On the positive side, the increasing chances for rain
means that there will be a gradual decreasing trend in temperatures
as highs over the weekend will be relegated to the upper 80s/low
90s. Low temperatures remain rather mild in the upper 60s to mid 70s
range through the weekend.

Speaking of temperatures...at the tail-end of the long term period,
model guidance continues to suggest a cold front to at least
approach Southeast Texas on Monday. The reason that I say "at least
approach" is because the parent surface low will be well far north
of us in the Northern Plains and skirting eastward through the Great
Lakes region, so we`d be catching the tail-end of it. The associated
upper level trough only dips as far south as the Ohio River Valley
as well. However, there is a noticeable downward trend in
temperatures. The probabilities are on our side though! Through the
weekend, the general probability for temperatures below 70F is
around 30%...but that probability increases to 70+% down to the
coast early next week. While it`s still too early to lock in a
FROPA, there are at least some good signs pointing in its
favor...stay tuned!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A few spots of patchy fog should diminish after sunrise this
morning, after which VFR conditions will prevail for the duration
of the TAF period. Expect N/NE winds to reach around 10 knots this
afternoon, becoming light and variable again overnight. No
rainfall is expected, with any isolated storms remaining well
offshore this afternoon.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Light winds and lows seas will continue through tonight. Going into
Wednesday morning, northeasterly to easterly winds become
established and may increase enough to warrant the occasional
issuance of caution flags in the Gulf waters. This is the result of
a trough extending from the Bay of Campeche into the north central
Gulf midweek into the weekend. Seas will gradually build as well,
especially going into the weekend. Chances for showers and storms
will be on the rise throughout the week with the highest chances
occuring Friday onward.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 68 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 72 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 77 85 76 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Batiste
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tireman4
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From one of the long range guys at S2K ( I trust his forecasts)..

Ntxw » Tue Oct 01, 2024 10:54 am

I know I sound like a broken record, but there is still yet any real cold air over the continent. Not seeing anything building anytime soon either. At best seasonal Pacific air and we still may be above normal. There are long range hints maybe something might change in the Pacific around or after Oct 20.

I agree with him. The late blooming, as it were, of the hurricane season. I feel Fall will be a late bloomer too.
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tireman4
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Precipitation and Temperature Outlook
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Pas_Bon
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tireman4 wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2024 11:15 am Precipitation and Temperature Outlook
Gross :cry:
Stratton20
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GEFS 12z trending below average temps across the deep south through hour 240 , thinking the western US and North central US get dominated by the warmth, while we get cooler temps for a good period,
Pas_Bon
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Oct 01, 2024 12:34 pm GEFS 12z trending below average temps across the deep south through hour 240 , thinking the western US and North central US get dominated by the warmth, while we get cooler temps for a good period,
It’s dominating us, alright. I’m calling “Uncle.”
I’m so sick of this damn heat.
Cpv17
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Ok, after not complaining much about the lack of rain here in the past few weeks, I’m gonna start complaining lol it’s freaking dry here now. Couldn’t care less about cooler temps. Just give me some damn rain.
Stratton20
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Pas_bon I think everyone is, eventually we will get cooler weather and bigger fall fronts, its just gonna be slow to change, as for rain, well i dont see much evidence of seeing that anytime soon either, big suck
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