How much longer will the La Nina pattern last?

[ticka1]

Just curious if the La Nina pattern will remain entrenched in our weather for 2011 and how long?

[srainhoutx]

It may have peaked already. But I'll leave that discussion to more learned folks.

[wxman57]

I think that La Nina will be around through at least the start of the next hurricane season, though not as strong as this past season. Gradually trending toward neutral by July/August. Look for a return to El Nino for next winter, and a much colder and stormier winter down south in 2011-2012 than we'll see this winter.

[unome]

latest forecast from Dec 4th: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

Consistent with nearly all ENSO forecast models, La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011. A large majority of models also predict La Niña to become a strong episode by the November-January season before gradually weakening. A few of the models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), suggest that La Niña could persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. However, no particular outcome is favored beyond the Northern Hemisphere spring due to large model disagreement and lower model skill during the period.

The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 December 2010.

[redneckweather]

La Nina Sucks! I can't even remember the last time we had a decent squall line move through.

[TexasMetBlake]

There is a lot of chatter about the winters of '12-'13 and '14. Some predict very, very cold conditions for the southern USA. Fingers crossed!

[srainhoutx]

CPC has released their January Outlook...La Nina to continue with interesting discussions regarding the MJO and AO...

Code: Select all

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830AM EST THURSDAY DEC 16 2010  30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JANUARY 2011  LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN WITH A SIMILAR INTENSITY TO THAT OBSERVED WHEN THE UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED IN LATE NOVEMBER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR THE EQUATOR IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN AS OF EARLY DECEMBER ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 DEG C BELOW NORMAL FROM THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST TO ABOUT 160 E LONGITUDE. BELOW NORMAL SSTS EXTEND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N AND 20S LATITUDE THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PACIFIC EAST OF AROUND 140W. FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH, ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE EVIDENT IN THE FOUR NINO SST INDICES, WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN -1.3 C AND -1.7 C. SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL TO A DEPTH OF ABOUT 200 METERS ALONG THE EQUATOR EAST OF AROUND 160W. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A SHALLOWER-THAN-AVERAGE THERMOCLINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO CLEARLY REFLECT MATURE LA NINA CONDITIONS. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA, AND SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ENHANCED, AS ARE WESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC.  ALL NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL ENSO FORECAST MODELS MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIALLY NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES AT LEAST INTO LATE BOREAL WINTER, WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR INTO THE SPRING THIS COLD EPISODE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE RECENT MJO ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK, AND ITS STRENGTH DURING LATE DECEMBER AND JANUARY IS UNCERTAIN AT THE CURRENT TIME, GIVEN STRONG BACKGROUND LA NINA CONDITIONS. THE SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN -1.5 AND -2 C IN THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON, SUGGESTING BORDERLINE MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA CONDITIONS FOR JANUARY 2011. BY SPRING (MAR-MAY) 2011, THE AVERAGE OF THE STATISTICAL TOOLS, AND THE AVERAGE OF THE DYNAMICAL TOOLS, SUPPORT NINO 3.4 INDICES AROUND -1.0 C, WITH THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST BEING ALMOST A HALF-DEGREE C WARMER THAN THE OTHER TWO, SUGGESTING BORDERLINE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, THE DEEP SNOW COVER CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST IS LIKELY TO PERSIST, IF NOT INCREASE. FINALLY, THERE IS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) TO CONSIDER, WHICH UNFORTUNATELY CANNOT BE RELIABLY PREDICTED MORE THAN ABOUT 2 WEEKS IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SINCE 1950, HISTORICAL RECORDS SHOW A TENDENCY FOR A NEGATIVELY PHASED AO IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FOLLOWING JANUARY.  THE JANUARY 2011 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE THEREFORE BASED ON THE TRADITIONAL SUITE OF STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL TOOLS, LA NINA COMPOSITES, AND DEEP SNOW COVER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH THE AO CANNOT BE USED AS A PRIMARY PREDICTOR FOR THIS MONTHLY OUTLOOK BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BEYOND 2 WEEKS, IT DOES ADD SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY TO THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES.  THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 2011 CALLS FOR ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST, ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST, AND THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF ALASKA. THESE ANTICIPATED AREAS OF COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY LA NINA COMPOSITES AND THE CCA (ALASKA), DEEP SNOW COVER AND CCA (UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION), AND ABNORMALLY COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (WEST COAST). WHEN THE UPDATED MONTHLY FORECAST IS ISSUED AT THE END OF DECEMBER, THE STATUS OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL BE REASSESSED. ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. THIS IS BASED ON THE CFS DYNAMICAL MODEL, THE CAS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE SMLR AND OCN TOOLS.  THE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 2011 CALLS FOR ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS, AS WELL AS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MOST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN IS WELL SUPPORTED BY LA NINA COMPOSITES, THE CFS, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE, THE SMLR AND CCA STATISTICAL TOOLS. THERE ARE ELEVATED ODDS OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS, THE EAST GULF COAST REGION INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST, AS WELL AS FOR A NARROW BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO NEAR YAKUTAT. THESE DRIER SIGNALS ARE BASED ON LA NINA COMPOSITES, THE CFS MODEL, AND THE CCA TOOL.   FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA   NOTES: AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED AS EC (EQUAL CHANCES).   AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JAN WILL BE ISSUED ON FRI DECEMBER 31 2010   THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD. 

[Ptarmigan]

There is a lot of chatter about the winters of '12-'13 and '14. Some predict very, very cold conditions for the southern USA. Fingers crossed!

What do they base it on that winter of 2012, 2013, and 2014 will be very cold? Perhaps Christmas future will be a cold one. HO! HO! HO!

[Ptarmigan]

La Nina Sucks! I can't even remember the last time we had a decent squall line move through.

The La Nina is like a cockroach. It is annoying like one. Makes you want to get a bunch of cans of RAID to kill La Nina.

[srainhoutx]

La Nina Sucks! I can't even remember the last time we had a decent squall line move through.

The La Nina is like a cockroach. It is annoying like one. Makes you want to get a bunch of cans of RAID to kill La Nina.

[wxman57]

What do they base it on that winter of 2012, 2013, and 2014 will be very cold? Perhaps Christmas future will be a cold one. HO! HO! HO!

The prediction that next winter may be much colder than this winter is based upon analog years. The assumption is that La Nina will fade by the coming summer, replaced by neutral conditions for the hurricane season and possibly El Nino conditions next winter. Past winters where La Nina has transitioned to El Nino by winter have been quite cold.

[Ptarmigan]

The prediction that next winter may be much colder than this winter is based upon analog years. The assumption is that La Nina will fade by the coming summer, replaced by neutral conditions for the hurricane season and possibly El Nino conditions next winter. Past winters where La Nina has transitioned to El Nino by winter have been quite cold.

There are not many years where La Nina Winter went to El Nino Winter the following year. The winters that were previously La Nina and went to El Nino:
1875-1876
1886-1887
1903-1904-Winter of 1904-1905 was one of the coldest winters.
1910-1911
1917-1918
1950-1951
1956-1957
1962-1963-Winter of 1963-1964 is one of the coldest winters.
1971-1972-Had three snow events in 1972-1973 Winter.
1975-1976-Winter of 1976-1977 is one of the coldest winters.
2005-2006-Winter of 2006-2007 had ice storms and an April snowfall north of Houston.
2008-2009-Winter of 2009-2010 is one of the coldest winters.

ENSO Data 1950-2010 from NOAA
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

ENSO Data before 1950 are from JMA
ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Ind ... y.filter-5

I notice a discrepancy between JMA and NOAA ENSO data.

Top 10 Coolest Winter
1977-1978 48.900
1894-1895 49.200*
2009-2010 49.733$
1904-1905 49.833$
1898-1899 50.133
1963-1964 50.233$
1976-1977 50.233$
1983-1984 50.567
1978-1979 50.700
1939-1940 51.033
1972-1973 51.033$
* No data for December of 1894
$ El Nino Winters that occurred after La Nina Winter.

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=177

Five of the top 10 coldest winters in Upper Texas Coast were El Nino Winters that occurred after La Nina Winter.