Wx Infinity Forums

As March arrives,lets do a poll until May 31 to see how the members here do in terms of their set of numbers for this upcomming season.If you want to post preliminary numbers,you can do that and then come back to post your final ones.At the end of the season we will see which member got the numbers right or was close to the season numbers.List of participants below.

1-Cycloneye=14/8/3 (Preliminary) Final Numbers=15/9/4
2-Paul=15/8/3
3-Ptarmigan=15/8/3
4-srainhoutx=11/4/2 (Preliminary) Final Numbers=15/7/4
5-sambucol=18/7/5
6-vbhoutex=14/8/4 (Preliminary)
7-Big.O=17/8/4
8-Katdaddy=14/7/3 (Preliminary)
9-Stormrider=16/8/5
10-ticka1=13/8/4
11-DPD=16/8/4
12-Ed Mahmoud=14/9/4

My prediction from Feb below....14/8/3....and no, me and Luis do not have inside information!!

Mon Feb 15, 2010 8:18 pm

My thoughts, as they have been much of the off season, is that Neutral conditions will be in store for the heart of the season. Not much difference in Neutral and LA NINA as far as number of storms. As WXMN suggested a weaker bermuda high would tend to curve most storms out to sea before 55W. Though I agree with this I do tend to think development after 55W is a good possibility. SO going out on a limb and say 14/8/3 for this season. 2-3 GOM threats. I do wonder about the ssts in the GOM rebounding but I have no doubt they will as they always have after a cold start to winter. Keep in mind though not firm science but snowfall in SE Texas, prior to TS season, we seem to get some nasty sotrms in the GOM. 2005 comes to mind.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:If I have to the end of May, it might be prudent to see the Klozbach/Gray CSU study before making a guesstimate. JB's early analogs of 1998, 2005 and 2008 argue for an active season, but it would seem (to me) 1998 would be the best analog.

Way to go out on a limb ED..

1998 saw some TX action but way before JB's predictions I said 2005 so I will stick with that for now. I can tell you this with a waning El Nino its going to be one hot summer around here.

Please, not another season like 2005!

Paul wrote:
Way to go out on a limb ED..

1998 saw some TX action but way before JB's predictions I said 2005 so I will stick with that for now. I can tell you this with a waning El Nino its going to be one hot summer around here.

I am going for 15/8/3. I am more likely to think this season will be more like 1998 because before the season started, there was a strong El Nino, like we have right now. 2005 season had an El Nino, but it was a weak one. Also, 2008 is not out of the picture either and that was active.

wxdata wrote:Please, not another season like 2005!

maybe not quite the number of storms but intensity wise I can see it being record setting. Just look at those anomalies in the MDR and carib. 2005 was weird in that a monsoonal trof set up shop in the carib similar to WPAC storms. CV waves never developed until they made it across the pond. When they did the trof aided in developing.

I suspect our neighbors to the E as well as my old neighbors in the Keys and those in the Islands would just as soon forget a repeat of 2005!

Well Luis, I am not convinced that El Nino will fully relax just yet. 11/4/2 (Preliminary)

Ptarmigan wrote:

Paul wrote:
Way to go out on a limb ED..

1998 saw some TX action but way before JB's predictions I said 2005 so I will stick with that for now. I can tell you this with a waning El Nino its going to be one hot summer around here.

I am going for 15/8/3. I am more likely to think this season will be more like 1998 because before the season started, there was a strong El Nino, like we have right now. 2005 season had an El Nino, but it was a weak one. Also, 2008 is not out of the picture either and that was active.

El Nino is moderate right now and weakening fast.Will be gone by summer per Aussies...I would agree..

Paul wrote: El Nino is moderate right now and weakening fast.Will be gone by summer per Aussies...I would agree..

2005 and 2008 season were in a Neutral phase of ENSO. I know 1933 was in that same phase too.

18/7/5 (preliminary)

14/8/4-(preliminary)With a probably neutral ENSO this is what makes sense to me.

Here is my prediction:

17/8/4

Its time again........here comes the 2010 hurricane season. I am expecting a much more active season. My preliminary forecast 14/7/3.

18/7/5

OK, I'll bite.

16/8/5

Caribbean is already looking rather warmish for March, but don't expect the season to jump the gun. The GOM is going to take a bit to warm up.

Statistical Overview for KHOU (As of 3/12/2010)

Mean
15/8/4

Median
15/8/4

Standard Deviation
Total Storms=2.027588
Hurricane=1.322876
Major Hurricane=1.013794

Ed Mahmoud wrote:I'll still wait for Klozbach and Gray. See if they are leaning the Joe Bastardi way, and what analog years they might reference.

It's quite possible that Phil will come up with a few different analog years. For the April forecast, there are 3 main predictors:

1) February-March SST Gradient between the Subtropical Eastern Atlantic and the South Atlantic (+). (This is the Atlantic Meridianal Mode (AMM))
2) March Sea Level Pressure in the Subtropical Atlantic(10-30°N, 10-30°W) (-)
3) Current and predicted ENSO status

According go Phil:
"The AMM is defined by the SST gradient between the North and South Atlantic tropical waters. A combination of above-normal SSTs in the eastern subtropical Atlantic and cooler-than-normal SSTs in the South Atlantic are associated with a weaker-than-normal Azores high and reduced trade wind strength during the boreal spring. This heightened SST gradient in February-March is strongly correlated with weaker trade winds and upper tropospheric westerly winds, lower-than-normal sea level pressures and above-normal SSTs in the tropical Atlantic during the following August-October period."

Ed Mahmoud wrote: No standard deviation?

Standard deviation added.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
I saw just enough of statistics in college to know I don't know it.


Do you have a HP prgrammed for that? I had an HP back in college. Excel was brand new then. Graphing was far simpler on a program called "Cricket Graph".

Trying to remember the name of the other one, not LOTUS 1-3, the spreadsheet programs the smart people liked...

What is HP? I use Excel.