2010 Atlantic Hurricane season poll

[sambucol]

18/7/5 (preliminary)

[vbhoutex]

14/8/4-(preliminary)With a probably neutral ENSO this is what makes sense to me.

[Big O]

Here is my prediction:

17/8/4

[Katdaddy]

Its time again........here comes the 2010 hurricane season. I am expecting a much more active season. My preliminary forecast 14/7/3.

[sambucol]

18/7/5

[Stormrider]

OK, I'll bite.

16/8/5

Caribbean is already looking rather warmish for March, but don't expect the season to jump the gun. The GOM is going to take a bit to warm up.

[Ptarmigan]

Statistical Overview for KHOU (As of 3/12/2010)

Mean
15/8/4

Median
15/8/4

Standard Deviation
Total Storms=2.027588
Hurricane=1.322876
Major Hurricane=1.013794

[wxman57]

I'll still wait for Klozbach and Gray. See if they are leaning the Joe Bastardi way, and what analog years they might reference.

It's quite possible that Phil will come up with a few different analog years. For the April forecast, there are 3 main predictors:

1) February-March SST Gradient between the Subtropical Eastern Atlantic and the South Atlantic (+). (This is the Atlantic Meridianal Mode (AMM))
2) March Sea Level Pressure in the Subtropical Atlantic(10-30°N, 10-30°W) (-)
3) Current and predicted ENSO status

According go Phil:
"The AMM is defined by the SST gradient between the North and South Atlantic tropical waters. A combination of above-normal SSTs in the eastern subtropical Atlantic and cooler-than-normal SSTs in the South Atlantic are associated with a weaker-than-normal Azores high and reduced trade wind strength during the boreal spring. This heightened SST gradient in February-March is strongly correlated with weaker trade winds and upper tropospheric westerly winds, lower-than-normal sea level pressures and above-normal SSTs in the tropical Atlantic during the following August-October period."

[Ptarmigan]

No standard deviation?

Standard deviation added.

[Ptarmigan]

I saw just enough of statistics in college to know I don't know it.


Do you have a HP prgrammed for that? I had an HP back in college. Excel was brand new then. Graphing was far simpler on a program called "Cricket Graph".

Trying to remember the name of the other one, not LOTUS 1-3, the spreadsheet programs the smart people liked...

What is HP? I use Excel.

[Ptarmigan]

Ynever carried a Hewlett Packer calculator that used RPN for data entry?

I used Texas Instrument graphing calculator.

[srainhoutx]

I'll bump this up in light of wxman57's input today Luis.

[Cycloneye]

I'll bump this up in light of wxman57's input today Luis.

I thought you were going to bump your numbers.

[Ptarmigan]

Unofficial, and I will likely revise with April 1 Klozbach


15/10/4, no US hurricane landfall West of 92.5º. Tropical storms, maybe one for Texas. Might be like Edouard, of polar origin.

Bad Florida and East Coast year.

50/50 chance this is the year Bastardi gets his former Cat 4 or Cat 5, still a high end Cat 2 or low end Cat 3, to impact Philadelphia or New York City area.



All unofficial, please your doctor if Avodart is right for you. Woman who are pregnant, or may become pregnant should not use or handle Avodart because of the risk of a particular birth defect. Some men may experience sexual side effects, or swelling and tenderness of the breasts

Disclaimer part is funny! Edouard came from a trough that entered the northern Gulf of Mexico. It was small. Had the conditions been right, Edouard could of become a hurricane.

[tireman4]

15/8/5

[DPD]

16/8/4

[Ptarmigan]

Statistical Overview for KHOU (As of 3/24/2010)

Mean
15/8/4

Median
15/8/4

Mode
TS=15
HU=8
MH=4

Lowest
TS=11
HU=4
MH=2

Highest
TS=18
HU=8
MH=5

Standard Deviation
Total Storms=1.772294
Hurricane=1.126601
Major Hurricane=0.926809

[srainhoutx]

Well it is becoming a bit more clear that El Nino will not be a factor this year for the Atlantic Basin. With that I will update my numbers and increase them abit. 15-7-4 Final

[ticka1]

13/8/4

[TexasMetBlake]

The Weather Research Center, via the Houston Business Journal, says Texas has a 60% chance of a storm this year!

http://houston.bizjournals.com/houston/ ... ily49.html