December Weather Discussion. Will We See Rain?

[Andrew]

I know it is early to talk about December, especially with our first possible freeze next week but the GFS in its la la land has been hinting at a strong front coming through in early December.



Let the long nights begin.

[helloitsb]

hmm, the blue "0" line is the freeze line right?

[Andrew]

hmm, the blue "0" line is the freeze line right?

Correct. This run is showing upper to mid 20's for the Houston area.

[helloitsb]

hmm, the blue "0" line is the freeze line right?

Correct. This run is showing upper to mid 20's for the Houston area.

Oh man, to bad that moisture looks pretty far away (Although this is probably just an over exaggerated model?)

[Andrew]

hmm, the blue "0" line is the freeze line right?

Correct. This run is showing upper to mid 20's for the Houston area.

Oh man, to bad that moisture looks pretty far away (Although this is probably just an over exaggerated model?)

Well it is 350+ hours out so a lot will change.

[srainhoutx]

For the past couple of days the Long Range Euro has been hinting at a big winter storm across the Central/Eastern US. That trend continues today...

[Andrew]

For the past couple of days the Long Range Euro has been hinting at a big winter storm across the Central/Eastern US. That trend continues today...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... yNA240.gif

That is cold Steve. Showing low 20's for the Houston area. Def something to watch.

[helloitsb]

Made a graph from the GFS for November 29-December 7 looking pretty cold, one question, the green line is the dew point right?



EDIT: I think the first time is supposed to be AM not PM but you get the idea

[Mr. T]

That is cold Steve. Showing low 20's for the Houston area. Def something to watch.

Those are temp anomalies at 850 mb

[srainhoutx]

Oh my...

[ticka1]

Okay Srain - explain the model run above and your comment "oh my" - you know us novices have inquiring minds and want to know!!!

BTW what general timeframe we looking at for this so called event if its being forecasted in the model runs?

[helloitsb]

Okay Srain - explain the model run above and your comment "oh my" - you know us novices have inquiring minds and want to know!!!

BTW what general timeframe we looking at for this so called event if its being forecasted in the model runs?

This

[srainhoutx]

The signals are becoming rather clear that a strong storm system will likely develop across the Plains and points E around the first week in December, ticka1. The GFS and Euro ensembles have been harping on this time frame for a while now and the Operational models are suggesting some Polar/Canadian Air will dump S along the lee side of the Rockies and set up a brief stormy period. What is interesting is we will likely have a decent snowpack built by that time frame with the current storms and less air mass modification could play an important roll in just who has a shot at some frozen precip. While it is still a long way off and we know as we have seen many times that things can and do change in the weather world, the pattern at this time does suggest that those looking for some wintry weather in and around TX may well get their chance. As far as what may or may not happen here in SE TX regarding p-types, it is waaaayyy too early to speculate on anything other than rain. But after our long dry spell, even that would be welcomed.

[helloitsb]

Oh man, with my little experience I could be completely wrong but this looks cold, it does look like most of the moisture is moved out by then but the storm looks huge!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _324.shtml


Edit: Could this possibly be la la land?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _348.shtml

[srainhoutx]

Oh man, with my little experience I could be completely wrong but this looks cold, it does look like most of the moisture is moved out by then but the storm looks huge!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _324.shtml


Edit: Could this possibly be la la land?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _348.shtml

Looking at the 00Z Euro Ensemble 850mb Temp Anomalies, I'd say chances are pretty good that we will see another shot of mighty cold air. Perhaps even colder than we will experience for Thanksgiving...

[srainhoutx]

Well look at this...watching the trends...

[helloitsb]

Are these models showing wintry precipitation?

[Ptarmigan]

Perhaps, we could see our first freeze soon...............................

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Euro Ensemble 850mb temps for December 1st suggest a stronger push of cold air next week...

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro continues the deep trough trend...