September 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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171
FXUS64 KHGX 252047
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A transition to drier and less humid conditions begins today and
should persist through at least the next few days. A cold front,
currently extending along the coastal counties will continue to
move southeastward this afternoon. Sufficient moisture, daytime
heating and low-level convergence have resulted in scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead and along of the boundary.
Additional post- frontal scattered activity can be expected
through early this evening, before the front finally moves off the
coast.

Latest sfc observations and satellite imagery show sfc high
pressure already moving across the TX Panhandle, beginning to push
a drier, slightly cooler and less humid airmass into the region.
Skies should gradually clear from northwest to southeast tonight,
resulting in a cooler night with lows generally in the 60s and low
70s.

Thursday is shaping up to be drier and less humid as surface
dewpoints drop into the 50s and 60s degC. Highs will climb into
the mid to near 90. Tight pressure gradient will result in breezy
conditions, especially along the coast. A pleasant night can be
expected Thursday night into Friday with mostly clear skies and
overnight lows from the upper 50s to upper 60s.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A closed low over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will keep
northerly flow in place behind the cold front, bringing drier
conditions over the next several days. With moisture and PVA
wrapping around the closed low aloft, there is a non-zero chance
that some isolated showers/storms could develop across portions of
the Piney Woods area on Friday/Saturday. Still, drier conditions
with PWs largely under 1 inch will largely suppress rain chances.
The aforementioned close low should lift north towards the
Tennessee/Ohio Valley over the weekend. As it does, ridging slowly
builds over the Four Corners, with temperatures progged to rise
into early next week. Northerly flow should stiffen this warming
trend, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s next week.
Lows should remain in the 60s inland to 70s near the coast.
Isolated spots across the Piney Woods area could see lows drop
below the 60 degree mark. Global deterministic guidance suggests
that a shortwave trough will pass over the area on Monday/Tuesday,
bringing a second push of drier air into SE Texas later the the
week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A weak frontal boundary will progress through the area triggering
isolated/scattered showers and occasional isolated thunderstorms
as it moves southeast toward the coast. Skies areawide are
expected to gradually clear out through the evening and overnight
hours, becoming mostly clear by early morning Thursday. Winds will
increase out of the north to 10-15 kts by mid to late morning
with occasional gusts up to 20 kts.

McNeel

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Light to moderate northeast winds and scattered showers/storms are
expected this afternoon/evening as a cold front pushes off the
coast. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect early Thursday
morning as northerly winds approach 20 knots and seas rise to 3 to 5
feet. Winds and seas decrease through the end of the work week, with
predominantly offshore flow prevailing over the weekend.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 87 66 90 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 73 86 71 87 / 30 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from late tonight through
Thursday afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ350-
355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...McNeel
MARINE...03
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djmike
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Yup! Same! Missed out on any rain today. Haven’t had a decent shower since Beryl.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:39 pmI wouldn’t be surprised if we only get 15-20” of rain over the next year.
We're in a drier stretch, but I doubt it be that extreme.
Cpv17
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user:null wrote: Wed Sep 25, 2024 6:34 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Sep 25, 2024 1:39 pmI wouldn’t be surprised if we only get 15-20” of rain over the next year.
We're in a drier stretch, but I doubt it be that extreme.
In 2011 I only received 10” the whole year.
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tireman4
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562
FXUS64 KHGX 261126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Drier and cooler weather is brought to you by yesterday`s FROPA that
has left behind N/NW winds. Expect these winds to continue pulling
in slightly cooler air through the short-term period, resulting in
highs in the 80s to low 90s today and Friday.
Clear skies at night will allow for more radiational cooling to take
place and will *finally* bring fall-like lows to SE Texas.
Temperatures tonight and Friday night will drop into the 60s for
most of the area. Locations in the Piney Woods and portions of the
Brazos Valley could see lows in the upper 50s.

In addition to the cooler temperatures, a tightening pressure
gradient will create breezy conditions through tonight, particularly
along the coast.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Drier conditions can be expected over the weekend and on into the start
of next week as the nearly stationary closed low off to our northeast
eventually weakens and lifts out of the area. With the low nearby over
the weekend, some wrap around clouds could spread across parts of our
area. Other than that, weather should stay quiet as a drier airmass
(precipitable water values around 1 inch) persists. As the next week
progresses, moisture pooling in/around the Bay of Campeche could gradually
spread into the western Gulf and across parts of our area. We have some
showers entering our marine forecast area starting on Monday and gradually
working their way toward the coast and inland on Wednesday and Thursday.

While lower afternoon humidities will persist across the area, a slow
warming trend can be expected. For high temperatures, will generally
expect inland locations in an upper 80s to mid 90s range with mid to
upper 80s along the coast. For low temperatures, we`ll start out Saturday
night with low to mid 60s inland and low to mid 70s at the coast, and
by Tuesday and Wednesday we will have mid to upper 60s inland and mid
70s at the coast. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Drier air continues to work into the area. N to NNE winds can be expected
today, generally increasing to around 10-12kts with occasional gusts
to around 20kts (winds/gusts a little higher at GLS). Any FEW/SCT clouds
should be clearing out as the day progresses. Lighter winds this evening
and overnight with SKC. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Elevated north winds and elevated seas can be expected today in the
wake of a cold front. Both winds and seas should begin to come down
beginning later this afternoon. Mainly light and variable winds and
low seas are anticipated for the end of the eek on through the weekend
and into the start of next week. Some rain is possible across the offshore
waters on Monday. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 87 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 71 87 73 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ350-
355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
MARINE...42
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DoctorMu
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84°F

DP of 58°F

Winds are NE 13 G20

If it's not going to rain - mild, drier, mostly sunny weather is a relief.
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djmike
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Prayers tonight for Florida and Georgia! Ive been in there shoes and wouldn’t wish this on my worst enemy.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
walsean1
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I pray that no one stayed to ride out the storm in the Big Bend area of Florida. I remember Hurricane Ike and that storm pounded Houston for Hours. Also Hurricane conditions are going to exist all the way to Macon and maybe Atlanta GA.. incredible
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tireman4
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421
FXUS64 KHGX 270722
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
222 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Weather will stay quiet. Mainly light generally north winds are
expected, and this flow in combination with surface high pressure
over the state will keep a dry airmass and lowish humidities in
place. High temperatures will be mainly in an upper 80s to mid 90s
range while low temperatures will be mainly in the 60s inland and
in the lower 70s at the coast. 42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Rain chances stay out of the forecast until Tuesday through Wednesday
night across parts of our coastal waters and then gradually work their
way inland starting on Thursday as we monitor a Gulf of Mexico surface
low/trof. A general warming trend can be expected through Wednesday
with inland highs mainly in a low to mid 90s range while lows persist
in a mid to upper 60s range inland and in the low to mid 70s toward
and along the coast. Inland afternoon humidities will remain in the
30s/40s. This forecast package currently has lower afternoon high
temperature on Thursday due to the expected increase in clouds and
rain chances.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR/SKC with winds mainly N 5-10kts during the day and light/variable
overnight. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Wind and seas will continue to come down this morning. Mainly light
and variable winds and low seas are anticipated to close out the week,
through the upcoming weekend and on into the first half of next week.
A few showers will be possible across the offshore waters beginning
on Tuesday. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 63 92 61 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 68 93 67 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 73 89 74 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT early this
morning for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$
Cromagnum
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So glad that didn't come here. We wouldn't have power until Thanksgiving.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:46 am So glad that didn't come here. We wouldn't have power until Thanksgiving.
It’s just a matter of time. Can’t be lucky every year.
Cromagnum
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Sep 27, 2024 12:04 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:46 am So glad that didn't come here. We wouldn't have power until Thanksgiving.
It’s just a matter of time. Can’t be lucky every year.
May not be very much time...

Image
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don
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Hurricane Beryl was enough for me.
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DoctorMu
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walsean1 wrote: Thu Sep 26, 2024 9:09 pm I pray that no one stayed to ride out the storm in the Big Bend area of Florida. I remember Hurricane Ike and that storm pounded Houston for Hours. Also Hurricane conditions are going to exist all the way to Macon and maybe Atlanta GA.. incredible
Michael was an infrastructure eraser in Mexico Beach.

Helene was east enough - a lot of the big bend/swamp dwellers left, some moved permanently after Debbie and last year's hurricane. Cedar Key is a mess.
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DoctorMu
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don wrote: Fri Sep 27, 2024 2:54 pm Hurricane Beryl was enough for me.
+ the May Derecho.
Pas_Bon
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Couple weeks ago, I emphatically stated my belief that Hurricane season was all but over for SETX. Looks like I may have been dead wrong, as was stated by a couple here. I hope to God not.
I’ll gladly own my misfire, but Lord, I do not want to.

Please just let it be a fast-moving tropical storm. Please.
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don
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I'm glad I don't have to worry about hurricanes anymore, I love them but the long duration power outages are unbearable.
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sambucol
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I’m not liking the yellow area at all in the NHC tropical outlook photo. It’s too much leaning in our direction.
Stratton20
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Im not concerned about it, ensembles guidance suggests either it gets buried into mexico or gets picked up by a trough and turns NE to SW lousiana or even florida again, Texas is safe because its extremely difficult to get a storm to come here when its going to october soon and we see more frequent troughing over the central- eastern US
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:12 pm Im not concerned about it, ensembles guidance suggests either it gets buried into mexico or gets picked up by a trough and turns NE to SW lousiana or even florida again, Texas is safe because its extremely difficult to get a storm to come here when its going to october soon and we see more frequent troughing over the central- eastern US
Yep, exactly.
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