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A bit of a hint of things to come from CARCAH this morning concerning our disturbance over the Yucatan...

NOUS42 KNHC 261515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 26 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
IN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.0N 95.0W FOR 28/1800Z.

The overall trend today via the 12Z models has been for a more developed disturbance and a bit further N. I would not be surprised to see a TD or TS form later this week. 12Z Euro...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LITTLE...IF ANY...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...
THESE WINDS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

hurricane. wheres everyone its not going to snow till november

Snip from the 8:00AM TWD (Tropical Weather Discussion)...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND APPEARS TO BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N WHERE A SURFACE LOW
MAY BE FORMING. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF SRN MEXICO
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 91W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 88W-96W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 85-88W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE ERN GULF FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 82W-88W. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY KEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH
OF THE SRN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AS THE WAVE DRIFTS
WNW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

There's no surface low yet, just a weak wave axis. There is a small chance (agree with NHC's 20%) it could spin up into a TD or weak TS just as it moves ashore into Mexico on Wednesday. That's about it. Nothing happening now, though.

The GFS is trending to a slightly better organized disturbance and touch further N. I still see no sign of any low level circulation, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an invest later in the day.

A board surface low looks to forming just NW of Ciudad del Carmen this early afternoon. Latest marine surface charts suggest a 1007mb low along the wave axis...

RECON has been tasked...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT MON 27 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-027

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 28/1515Z
D. 21.0N 94.0W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 29/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 29/0930Z
D. 22.0N 96.0W
E. 29/1130Z TO 29/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY
FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Interesting to see the 12Z GFS and Canadian suggest a storm coming out of the NW Caribbean in about a week.

The over night models continue to advertise a disturbance riding out of the NW Caribbean and entering the Western Gulf early next week.

Keep an eye on the tropical wave located near 50W. This is the feature that the models are suggesting may be our next tropical trouble maker. It does develop near the time another Kelvin wave/MJO pulse heads into the Western Basin and does raise an eyebrow...

TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 13N47W TO 7N48W
MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
CLEAR CUT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE
IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
46W-50W...AND FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 48W-50W.

It's going to be interesting to see how this evolves. I definitely think it bears watching. Looking at the steering flow in the ensembles, there is a lot of spread. The GFS ensembles forecast the ridge to set up farther west, which would take whatever forms towards you guys. OTOH, the Euro ensemble keep you guys firmly planted underneath the ridge, implying a track towards Mobile or Tallahassee. Unfortunately, there isn't much in the way of teleconnections to get a good feel on which solution will be correct.

Thanks for the update, Adam. I know most attention right now is on Arlene, but this feature will be the one to watch, IMO for a possible stronger cyclone in the Gulf.

I see Josh lurking. I know many will remember his chase experiences from Dolly/Gustav/Ike in 08. Perhaps another intercept chance for our region may be ahead this season.

Hey, guys-- what's up? Haven't posted here in a while-- just thought I'd say hey.

Interesting that the season has started off with a W-Gulf threat.

Here are the Operational numerical guidance from the 06Z GFS and the 00Z Euro for hour 192 re: next week...

Really liking our chances for this one. Around the 10th? or 11th of July? Bret?

So the possible gulf disturbance around the 10th or 11th vanished? What were the models hinting at and are they still seeing anything? I figure since there were only 1-2 post a day to this particular thread, the "future" disturbance may not transpire....Gosh, we need the rain...