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Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 9:14 am
by am19psu
wxman57 wrote:Similar setup to Alex of last year (steering current-wise), but a good bit less moisture and no circulation evident on TPW loops. I don't tend to get very excited about models predicting development 7-10 days or more out, as was the case early last week for today's "hurricane in the Gulf". But it does bother me that the models haven't shown any signs of dropping the development just 4 days before the predicted development on Monday. If the 12Z runs don't show any signs of backing off, then I will be a bit more concerned that they may be on to something. At this point, I'm thinking 20-30% chance of development early next week. Still well below 50-50, but chances are increasing.
That sounds about right, 57. The "easier" forecast is for more precip to get into MX (and hopefully TX). At the moment, I'm thinking a strengthening tropical wave/tropical depression is the most likely outcome.
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 9:37 am
by unome
Derek Ortt posted on this today
http://tinyurl.com/his-thoughts
always enjoy reading what he has to say
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:04 am
by srainhoutx
Convective activity in the SW Caribbean and along the tropical wave in the Central Caribbean has picked up over the past couple of hours...
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:03 am
by wxman57
The feature we're watching is the wave just south of the Dominican Republic. All convection is displaced east of the wave axis presently. Note the strong westerly winds aloft across the central Caribbean. I don't expect much to develop in the way of convection until the wave slows down when it reaches the Yucatan late on Saturday.
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:42 am
by srainhoutx
As wxman57 stated, it appears that the wave in the Central Caribbean is the feature to watch. The 12Z GFS suggests a slowly developing system that crawls NNW from the Bay of Campeche...
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 1:46 pm
by srainhoutx
Consensus is building regarding developing a storm in the Bay Of Campeche. The global models all develop a system. Some are stronger and the Euro is a touch weaker. What will need to be monitored is the area of disturbed weather in the Central Caribbean and the SW Caribbean the next couple of days.
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 1:53 pm
by singlemom
srainhoutx wrote:Consensus is building regarding developing a storm in the Bay Of Campeche. The global models all develop a system. Some are stronger and the Euro is a touch weaker. What will need to be monitored is the area of disturbed weather in the Central Caribbean and the SW Caribbean the next couple of days.
I begin my yearly stint of leading eight rowdy boys through Cub Scout Day Camp on Monday. Of course, I'll "Be Prepared" but it would be nice to have a heads up on the situtation before everyone else gets word...if there is word to be had. To be honest, this year I'd be happy with soaking rains planted over my house every single day. lol
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 1:57 pm
by srainhoutx
singlemom wrote:srainhoutx wrote:Consensus is building regarding developing a storm in the Bay Of Campeche. The global models all develop a system. Some are stronger and the Euro is a touch weaker. What will need to be monitored is the area of disturbed weather in the Central Caribbean and the SW Caribbean the next couple of days.
I begin my yearly stint of leading eight rowdy boys through Cub Scout Day Camp on Monday. Of course, I'll "Be Prepared" but it would be nice to have a heads up on the situtation before everyone else gets word...if there is word to be had. To be honest, this year I'd be happy with soaking rains planted over my house every single day. lol
We'll do, singlemom. As always, we do stay on top of these situations and I'm sure our Pros will be active as we have seen this morning.
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 2:00 pm
by srainhoutx
HPC afternoon Update:
ASSOCIATED MID LVL ENERGY SHOULD SETTLE
INTO THE RESIDUAL WEAK MEAN TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH
ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST POTENTIALLY RETROGRADING
WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. AT LOWER
LATITUDES...THE 12Z CANADIAN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARDS THE REMAINDER
OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH LOW PRESSURE FCST TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. THE 17Z NHC/HPC
COORDINATION CALL LED TO EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEMS
TRACK CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST NEXT THURSDAY. CONDITIONS
COULD BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE/BRAVO VALLEY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK DEPENDING UPON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WOULD BE WELCOME SINCE
THEY REMAIN WITHIN EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 5:05 pm
by srainhoutx
Our friends at ImpactWeather have a new video out concerning the disturbance we are following...
http://www.youtube.com/user/impactweath ... OXCg_4J9q4
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 5:37 pm
by srainhoutx
Looks like a big sloppy wet storm via the 18Z GFS...
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 5:47 pm
by Andrew
srainhoutx wrote:Looks like a big sloppy wet storm via the 18Z GFS...
The steering currents disappear as the ridge breaks down. The storm, being weak, does not take the weakness and as a result when the ridge builds back in it pushes it west again. Very tricky scenario. Either way though it looks like a large system due to the interaction with land and that should mean rain for a lot of people hopefully.
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 5:50 pm
by jgreak
At this point, can it be pretty certainly ruled out of a more northerly track bringing it closer to us here in SE TX? I know a lot of discussions have indicated the TX/MX border as its most northerly potential track.
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 5:54 pm
by Andrew
jgreak wrote:At this point, can it be pretty certainly ruled out of a more northerly track bringing it closer to us here in SE TX? I know a lot of discussions have indicated the TX/MX border as its most northerly potential track.
This is still over a week away from "landfall" if you want to call it that and development hasn't even begun yet. We don't yet know if we will even have a storm on our hands next week yet. Depending on where the LLC takes shape and the intensity and placement of the high towards the middle of next week will give us our destination but until then we don't know. Expect changes in the runs as time gets closer. Remember also that models such as the GFS are still close to the lower resolution time frames when this storm makes landfall meaning the accuracy will not be as good. So keep an eye out on things and hope we get rain.
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:32 pm
by Rip76
Is that a spin about 150 miles South of Galveston?
Just curious.
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:54 pm
by srainhoutx
Rip76 wrote:Is that a spin about 150 miles South of Galveston?
Just curious.
Nothing but an upper level spin, I suspect. The coastal trough should remain offshore.
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 8:00 pm
by Rip76
Thank you sir... Tough to tell on iPhone radar.
Looked like some clouds were being pulled in.
Is there a good iPhone satellite link ( non-flash) of course?
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 8:16 pm
by Katdaddy
Model consistency continues to grow today. Looking more and more like TS Arlene may be in the WGOM next week. We need rain Arlene would be very welcomed eventhough it would cause flooding with the still very dry grounds . Time to model watch in more detail this weekend....tis the season
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 9:00 pm
by Ptarmigan
192 Hour GFS Forecast
GOM is favorable for TC formation
Re: 2011 NATL Hurricane Season: Models Hint Development
Posted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 9:06 pm
by unome
Rip76 wrote:Is that a spin about 150 miles South of Galveston?
Just curious.
from 8 PM Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2342.shtml?
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING
...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE LIES A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N91W TO
21N95W.
A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SHARP CYCLONIC TURN ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS GUSTING TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE AXIS...
AND UP TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED
BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING FAIR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION AREA. S-SW FLOW IS OBSERVED E
OF 90W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/fxc/201106232245_a.png
