2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[wxman57]

T wave looking better, convectively speaking, this morning. My hunch is we'll see an INVEST before the day is out. I suspect that the NHC would like to start running the Hurricane models for what may well be a future Cindy.

Agreed. This one has me concerned - not for us yet, but for our clients in the Caribbean and the Bahamas to southeast U.S.

[Andrew]

T wave looking better, convectively speaking, this morning. My hunch is we'll see an INVEST before the day is out. I suspect that the NHC would like to start running the Hurricane models for what may well be a future Cindy.

Agreed. This one has me concerned - not for us yet, but for our clients in the Caribbean and the Bahamas to southeast U.S.

Yea the Southeast U.S. and Bahamas are the most immediate threats but some of the models including the Euro and CMC showing a building ridge that could push the system west. It all depends on if it does build in and how soon. The cmc shows the weakness pretty well and that is why the system advances so far north before heading west into the U.S. How soon this system forms will dictate if it finds the weakness and how north it will go. The Euro does show a track that COULD be similar to Katrina or Ike as it crosses Florida into the gulf but as of now that is just speculation. I would enjoy it when the GFS actually picks this system up.

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian suggest a SE Bahamas threat and on out to sea while the Euro and UKMET suggest a weaker disturbance crossing Hispaniola heading W...

[Ptarmigan]

Future Don.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro ensemble mean continues to advertise a possible Gulf threat in the long range...

[rnmm]

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Katdaddy]

And so it begins. I feel confident Pouch PO7L will become our next Invest. Also its at low latitude which will be further away from troughing effects. Its possible this could become the next GOM threat down the road.

[tireman4]

Katdaddy,

I echo many sentiments at Storm2k. I am a just a little bit concerned. This could be a problem

[Katdaddy]

I saw you post over at S2K Tireman. The Euro brings it W to the Upper TX Coast. Way to early to tell but feel its lower latitude will allow it move into the GOM. We need the rain but if it were to get this far W it might have alot baggage.

[CAK]

Anyone know what the deal is with the big spinning blob just on the east side of Cuba?

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[Andrew]

Anyone know what the deal is with the big spinning blob just on the east side of Cuba?

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

That is a ULL or Mid level low but nothing worrisome for tropical development. It could only cause sheer problems really.

[jasons2k]

I'm keeping tabs on this one for sure. The long-rang pattern *could* steer this system towards the TX coast.

[ticka1]

More suggestions of an interesting ASO nationally.


Secret source says Bill Read (NHC) is watching area of abnormal water temps in the MDR and they expect big things.

Ed can you translate that - not sure what MDR is and ASO is either! As always - thanks for the info!

[ticka1]

Main development region and August-September-October.

Thank you. Learn something new everyday.

[srainhoutx]

Roundy TC Genesis probs are increasing for August across the Atlantic Basin...

[rnmm]

1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20
MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PASCH

[srainhoutx]

1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20
MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PASCH

[Ptarmigan]

That tropical wave is probably likely going to be Emily.

[djjordan]

I agree Emily is just around the corner she seems to be at a low latitude at the time .... well worth watching over time.

[rnmm]

It has been renumbered to 91L