2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian develops a strong tropical storm/Hurricane crossing the Yucatan and making landfall S of Tampico, MX...the Upper Ridge appears rather strong on that model as well...

[wxman57]

Can't rule out the possibility of development, but I think it's more likely that the models are just picking up on another moisture surge out of the region early next week. Interestingly, the disturbance entering the eastern Caribbean is following the Alex timeline from 2010. Alex was in the same region June 22nd last year. And Alex took a similar path to what the GFS is forecasting.

For now, my money is on "no development", but I'm keeping an eye on it. Maybe more rain for us.

[Andrew]

Can't rule out the possibility of development, but I think it's more likely that the models are just picking up on another moisture surge out of the region early next week. Interestingly, the disturbance entering the eastern Caribbean is following the Alex timeline from 2010. Alex was in the same region June 22nd last year. And Alex took a similar path to what the GFS is forecasting.

For now, my money is on "no development", but I'm keeping an eye on it. Maybe more rain for us.

What do you think about the ridge during that time period? I am leaning with the Euro and CMC towards a stronger ridge pushing any development south into Mexico.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a weaker system that crosses the Yucatan and never really develops it. That model suggests Veracruz may see a land falling depression or weak TS. Also of note, the Euro has backed off the strength of the Upper Ridge and also suggests it may be a bit further N in the longer range allowing for an open Western Caribbean and Western Gulf for yet another strong tropical moisture/wave surge to follow.

HPC afternoon Update:

USED A 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
COMPROMISE THEREAFTER TO ACCOUNT FOR ISSUES NEAR THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/5 OF THE 00Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS A POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVE LOW
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SOLUTION THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN
HINTED AT YESTERDAY. THE 17Z COORDINATION CALL WITH THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER LED TO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THE DEPICTION OF
THIS FEATURE.

[srainhoutx]

Brownsville has noticed the models:

A COUPLE OF THE MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IF IT PANS OUT. HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS AND TO SEE SOME
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

[wxman57]

Can't rule out the possibility of development, but I think it's more likely that the models are just picking up on another moisture surge out of the region early next week. Interestingly, the disturbance entering the eastern Caribbean is following the Alex timeline from 2010. Alex was in the same region June 22nd last year. And Alex took a similar path to what the GFS is forecasting.

For now, my money is on "no development", but I'm keeping an eye on it. Maybe more rain for us.

What do you think about the ridge during that time period? I am leaning with the Euro and CMC towards a stronger ridge pushing any development south into Mexico.

I'd say that's a good possibility should development occur. But we may be able to get some moisture up in Texas from that disturbance next week, regardless of development.

[srainhoutx]

The models have the attention of various NWS offices around the Western Gulf. New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, and Corpus Christi have followed the lead of Brownsville making mention of the possibilities.

[biggerbyte]

Links to the H/G writeup?

Thanks

[srainhoutx]

Links to the H/G writeup?

Thanks

wxman57 had posted it in the June Discussion, BB. Here it is again...

Widespread 0.75 to 1.5" across Harris county as per the Harris County Office of Emergency Management rainfall website:

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

Looks like my house southwest of the SW corner of loop 610 got about an inch. Better than nothing, but only good for this week's watering of my lawn. Some areas got over 2".

We may have some lingering storms near the coast tomorrow, but that coastal trof will be on its way out of the picture for Friday. Back to hot and dry for the weekend. Will have to keep an eye on the Gulf in another week for potential tropical moisture surging back northward. Models currently indicate a storm developing, but they did the same thing last week. Hopefully it's just more rain for TX/LA.

From the recently-released Houston Area Forecast Discussion (AFD):
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE RATHER WARM WITH VERY LITTLE BY WAY OF RAIN.
DID TAKE NOTE OF THE GFS' HAPPENINGS IN THE SRN GULF FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK...BUT HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE QUIETER ECMWF FOR NOW.

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f= ... &start=400

[biggerbyte]

Cool! I did not take the time to read that. Lot going on over here. Thanks for the re-post.

BB

[Andrew]

Just for fun (18z GFS Hour 240)

[srainhoutx]

18Z GFS a bit earlier...

[biggerbyte]

Wow! Now THAT would be an event.

[Ptarmigan]

18Z GFS a bit earlier...

Could this be Arlene?

[Andrew]

00z gfs continues:

[Andrew]

Well before going to bed I do want to mention that the consistency of the runs has raised a couple of eyebrows (at least for me). I feel like there is a better chance this time of the models actually sniffing out some actual development. When looking at last week runs there are a couple of key differences that give me more confidence. The first is that the models actually have the storm develop in the Carribean instead of the BOC. This is very important as you can actually track the moisture from the Atlantic. Secondly the models don't bounce the low pressure all over the place which is another indication of an organized system unlike previous times where the models were just picking up on the lower pressures in the BOC (which occurs naturally) and trying to produce a system out of it. While this is still a week+ away and I don't completely believe what the models are saying right now, we are getting close to July where things start to become more active and the the models are showing that with more activity coming off Africa. The gulf and Atlantic SST's are increasing and it won't be long before they are "cooking". It would be a good idea to check up on your supplies for this season as it could get active for us especially later in the season. As for next week it will be increasingly important to check the models as development isn't the only question. The placement of the ridge and strength will be the guiding factors for this moisture next week and models are still all over the place. Keep an eye out everyone, check in, and lets hope we get some more rain next week. Also here is the Canadian and has anyone seen the longer range gfs rainfall totals? 9+ inches

[srainhoutx]

Both the 00Z Euro Operational and Ensembles suggest a bit stronger, more organized system that is also a bit further N along the MX Coast...

Austin/San Antonio NWS:

THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWFA.

THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM SPIN UP A SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM MOVE THIS FEATURE TOWARDS
TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO.
ATTM THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE.



HPC:

AT LOWER LATITUDES THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST/FARTHEST NWD
WITH LOW PRESSURE FCST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO
NEXT WEEK. MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH YDAYS 17Z NHC/HPC
COORDINATED DEPICTION YIELDS A SOLN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NRN
PORTION OF THE SPREAD.

[srainhoutx]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SE RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...MENTIONED BELOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION...WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF SUNDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE BULLISH WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS WAVE IN THE SW GULF.

SW N ATLC...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 27N WILL SHIFT N TO NEAR 30N FRI
NIGHT. IN GENERAL...MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ARE FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
FAR S PART OF THE AREA WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND ENTER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI. THE
WESTWARD PROPAGATION WILL DECREASE WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY SUN...THE ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN EARLY MON.

[srainhoutx]

In other NATL news, the Gulf of Guinea continues to cool and the monsoonal trough is lifting N in the Eastern Atlantic. Waves are becoming a bit more active and MIMIC TWP clear shows the trough slowly lifting. Also of note is a vigorous wave in Central Atlantic that will be near the Windward Islands early next week. The wave in question re: SW Gulf development (currently in the Central Caribbean) is very moist and a hint of a roll or fold is showing up as well…

[wxman57]

Similar setup to Alex of last year (steering current-wise), but a good bit less moisture and no circulation evident on TPW loops. I don't tend to get very excited about models predicting development 7-10 days or more out, as was the case early last week for today's "hurricane in the Gulf". But it does bother me that the models haven't shown any signs of dropping the development just 4 days before the predicted development on Monday. If the 12Z runs don't show any signs of backing off, then I will be a bit more concerned that they may be on to something. At this point, I'm thinking 20-30% chance of development early next week. Still well below 50-50, but chances are increasing.