jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2024 2:44 pm
We had a lot of damage in our neighborhood. Several large trees uprooted.
yikes.
slam dunk on that last one.
How bad did the winds get?
There’s a lot of trees down and several snapped trees so I’m gonna estimate gusts to hurricane force, 70-80mph. I didn’t see shingles down or anything like that, but several roads in Montgomery County were/are blocked by flood waters and downed trees. I couldn’t get to the nearest grocery store a couple of hours ago - I could probably make it now.
Crazy. Glad you're safe. Hope no one became a statistic this round.
Stay safe. Round 2 tonight? Or was this the MCS the Friday morning models picked up on?
There’s a lot of trees down and several snapped trees so I’m gonna estimate gusts to hurricane force, 70-80mph. I didn’t see shingles down or anything like that, but several roads in Montgomery County were/are blocked by flood waters and downed trees. I couldn’t get to the nearest grocery store a couple of hours ago - I could probably make it now.
Crazy. Glad you're safe. Hope no one became a statistic this round.
Stay safe. Round 2 tonight? Or was this the MCS the Friday morning models picked up on?
Thank you! Yeah I hope everyone is safe after this one!!
There is supposed to be another round tonight but the outflow is way offshore. The whole setup isn’t being modeled well. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
There’s a lot of trees down and several snapped trees so I’m gonna estimate gusts to hurricane force, 70-80mph. I didn’t see shingles down or anything like that, but several roads in Montgomery County were/are blocked by flood waters and downed trees. I couldn’t get to the nearest grocery store a couple of hours ago - I could probably make it now.
Crazy. Glad you're safe. Hope no one became a statistic this round.
Stay safe. Round 2 tonight? Or was this the MCS the Friday morning models picked up on?
Thank you! Yeah I hope everyone is safe after this one!!
There is supposed to be another round tonight but the outflow is way offshore. The whole setup isn’t being modeled well. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
Yep! Who knows what’s gonna happen. The models are performing pretty bad with this setup. I wouldn’t trust them.
Yep models always struggle here when you're dealing with numerous disturbances moving in along the subtropical jet into the state.Kudos to the EURO for showing heavy rainfall amounts over SE Texas several days ago.While the GFS was much drier here.
don wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2024 3:34 pm
Yep models always struggle here when you're dealing with numerous disturbances moving in along the subtropical jet into the state.Kudos to the EURO for showing heavy rainfall amounts over SE Texas several days ago.While the GFS was much drier here.
The HRRR seemed pretty accurate for this MCS, also, if I’m not mistaken.
The Next MCS may be tomorrow morning.And some models are already sniffing out another potent disturbance moving in on Sunday.So for those who haven't seen much rain yet there is still opportunities for more rain coming up.This is the way Spring is suppose to be in Texas.Below is what I posted last Wednesday.I'm glad the state is getting beneficial rains before Summer.
Models are trending weaker with ridging over Mexico & the Gulf, and are now showing more precip in SE Texas next week than earlier runs.This may cause the subtropical jet to orientate further south in the state.Allowing disturbances to move over Central & East/Southeast Texas next week.We'll see...
It's feast or famine. 3.83 inches from the latest MCV this morning. That is 10.24 inches of rain for the week!
Welcome to Texas! We'll continue to see a ramping up of extremes in Texas over the coming years. Longer periods of drought in the summer and more flooding rains.
Stratton - you must be thinking of North Carolina, my old stomping grounds. We had no need for a sprinkler system, and watering with a hose was very occasional. There's a nice shower every other day...and then it moves on.
Burlington, NC
Average rain:
June: 4.63 inches
July: 4.39 in
September 4.91 inches
August: 4.12 in
Yearly total: 49.5 inches. Plants, including more acidic loving gardenias thrive.
NC is God's Country.
Texas is Godforsaken Country.
Texas is sandwiched between the GoM, Mexico, Great Plains, Southwest and Louisiana. We're not far enough east to take advantage of more consistent rain from Gulf moisture. Texas in the transition zone, so numerous elements fight it out and we bear load of the Death Ridge in the summer. The dry line battles The Cap, etc.
In the summer in CLL, we're a humid subtropical desert.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2024 5:14 pm
It's feast or famine. 3.83 inches from the latest MCV this morning. That is 10.24 inches of rain for the week!
Welcome to Texas! We'll continue to see a ramping up of extremes in Texas over the coming years. Longer periods of drought in the summer and more flooding rains.
Stratton - you must be thinking of North Carolina, my old stomping grounds. We had no need for a sprinkler system, and watering with a hose was very occasional. There's a nice shower every other day...and then it moves on.
Burlington, NC
Average rain:
June: 4.63 inches
July: 4.39 in
September 4.91 inches
August: 4.12 in
Yearly total: 49.5 inches. Plants, including more acidic loving gardenias thrive.
NC is God's Country.
Texas is Godforsaken Country.
Texas is sandwiched between the GoM, Mexico, Great Plains, Southwest and Louisiana. We're not far enough east to take advantage of more consistent rain from Gulf moisture. Texas in the transition zone, so numerous elements fight it out and we bear load of the Death Ridge in the summer. The dry line battles The Cap, etc.
In the summer in CLL, we're a humid subtropical desert.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2024 5:14 pm
It's feast or famine. 3.83 inches from the latest MCV this morning. That is 10.24 inches of rain for the week!
Welcome to Texas! We'll continue to see a ramping up of extremes in Texas over the coming years. Longer periods of drought in the summer and more flooding rains.
Stratton - you must be thinking of North Carolina, my old stomping grounds. We had no need for a sprinkler system, and watering with a hose was very occasional. There's a nice shower every other day...and then it moves on.
Burlington, NC
Average rain:
June: 4.63 inches
July: 4.39 in
September 4.91 inches
August: 4.12 in
Yearly total: 49.5 inches. Plants, including more acidic loving gardenias thrive.
NC is God's Country.
Texas is Godforsaken Country.
Texas is sandwiched between the GoM, Mexico, Great Plains, Southwest and Louisiana. We're not far enough east to take advantage of more consistent rain from Gulf moisture. Texas in the transition zone, so numerous elements fight it out and we bear load of the Death Ridge in the summer. The dry line battles The Cap, etc.
In the summer in CLL, we're a humid subtropical desert.
College Station may be closer to a semi arid climate like Austin and San Antonio than tropical.The weather can be sometimes completely different in the coastal counties compared to up there in the summer.Texas being in a transition zone between climate zones creates a LARGE variation in yearly rainfall over the state.
Last edited by don on Thu May 02, 2024 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2024 5:14 pm
It's feast or famine. 3.83 inches from the latest MCV this morning. That is 10.24 inches of rain for the week!
Welcome to Texas! We'll continue to see a ramping up of extremes in Texas over the coming years. Longer periods of drought in the summer and more flooding rains.
Stratton - you must be thinking of North Carolina, my old stomping grounds. We had no need for a sprinkler system, and watering with a hose was very occasional. There's a nice shower every other day...and then it moves on.
Burlington, NC
Average rain:
June: 4.63 inches
July: 4.39 in
September 4.91 inches
August: 4.12 in
Yearly total: 49.5 inches. Plants, including more acidic loving gardenias thrive.
NC is God's Country.
Texas is Godforsaken Country.
Texas is sandwiched between the GoM, Mexico, Great Plains, Southwest and Louisiana. We're not far enough east to take advantage of more consistent rain from Gulf moisture. Texas in the transition zone, so numerous elements fight it out and we bear load of the Death Ridge in the summer. The dry line battles The Cap, etc.
In the summer in CLL, we're a humid subtropical desert.
This summer won’t be like that.
I'd be shocked if we tally > 1 inch of rain between July 1 and August 20 in CLL, unless there is a tropical system, I assume that's your thought. Cat 4 and Cat 5 season in the GoM should start about August 20.
