April 2024

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231949
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
249 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A look at the satellite this afternoon will confirm from above
what you can also likely see from your nearest window - it`s
mostly cloudy out there. The exception is out towards the Piney
Woods in parts of Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties, where it
will remain tree canopy that blocks your view of the sky, not the
clouds. Despite that, we are continuing the expected warming
trend, with temperatures reaching into the middle 70s throughout
the region, on pace for highs in the upper half of the 70s for
most in the next few hours.

If you like your nights a bit chillier - firstly, I congratulate
your good taste, but also I have some bad news. With clouds
staying in place, and onshore flow continuing to pump in higher
dewpoints, we are assured to have a higher temperature floor
overnight as well. Lows tonight look to be a good 10-15 degrees
higher than last night, ranging from the low 60s in the far north
to right around 70 degrees on the Gulf. This of course, sets us up
for another warm day tomorrow, in spite of another day that`s
anticipated to be mostly cloudy. Starting as warm as we are, highs
should nudge up to around or above 80 degrees area-wide.

Outside of the temps and continued onshore winds, there`s not a
whole lot else of note in the short term. I did struggle with rain
chances. We`ve got a decently low cloud base and increasing moisture,
which has me thinking we can manage a smattering or real light,
real quick sprinkles/light showers. But since these tend to struggle
to manage more than a trace of rain, and the PoPs are defined by
having measurable rain, I chose to keep those rain chances low,
below the threshold for a slight chance mention. Even if you stipulate
one of these quick hitter sprinklers, the odds aren`t great for
getting even a hundredth of an inch out of them. Luchs

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Upper level ridging from Mexico into Texas will be transitioning
eastward on Thursday. This will open us to more of a swly flow
aloft with broad mid-upper troffiness situated across the western
CONUS as we close out the week.

As far as the local forecast goes, look for increasingly breezy
conditions as we head into the weekend as the pressure gradient
tightens. With steady winds coming in off the Gulf, I`d anticipate
mcldy skies, humid conditions and overnight low temperatures
resembling those of early June (low 70s). Though slightly above
normal, cloud cover should keep readings in the 83-87 range most
days.

Despite somewhat moist conditions, other some some diffuse impulses
moving overhead from time-to-time, there really isn`t much in the
way of distinct triggers or focusing mechanisms needed for
widespread chances of rain. There are a few possible exceptions
we`ll be keeping an eye on (mainly for the northern parts of the
CWA). Looks like there will be a few shortwaves drop into the base
of the trof then eject into the Plains. As this occurs we might
see the tail end of some associated bands of shra/tstms try to
sneak into portions of the area. Friday and Sunday would be the
days I`d be looking at if so. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR around the area, but anticipate all TAF
sites will see CIGs lift to VFR this afternoon, even if it`s just
barely in some spots. Clouds hang tight with us through the
period, gradually coming back down to MVFR late this evening. Some
guidance gets aggressive in this drop, going to low MVFR and even
IFR in spots. This seems reasonable for short stretches, but not
enough confidence in precise impacts to lay it out in the TAF this
cycle. Future cycles may want to dig into this nuance a little
more. Similarly, there could be a bit more wiggling in the winds,
but for now stick with sketching out the broader S/SE pattern,
becoming light/VRB late, and S/SE winds returning in the morning.
Finally, as moisture continues to deepen and ample clouds, some
light showers here and there aren`t impossible...but not
significant enough to explicitly put into the forecast at this
time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Onshore flow will continue through the week. Winds and seas will
be on an upward climb later in the week and weekend as a long fetch
of moderate to strong southeast winds set up across the Gulf.
Small craft advisories are looking increasingly probable as are
high risks of rip currents on area beaches this weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 83 67 84 / 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 66 83 67 84 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 70 77 70 78 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[DoctorMu]

2023 Heat Risk NOAA IAH

Yeah - see that 110°F bar? We hovered around there or above for weeks.

[Pas_Bon]

2023 Heat Risk NOAA IAH

Yeah - see that 110°F bar? We hovered around there or above for weeks.

I know this isn't directly April-related, per se, but I don't think anyone is surprised a bit by this......

[DoctorMu]

2023 Heat Risk NOAA IAH

Yeah - see that 110°F bar? We hovered around there or above for weeks.

I know this isn't directly April-related, per se, but I don't think anyone is surprised a bit by this......

Ironic when your lifeline is the tropics.

[don]

Models are trending weaker with ridging over Mexico & the Gulf, and are now showing more precip in SE Texas next week than earlier runs.This may cause the subtropical jet to orientate further south in the state.Allowing disturbances to move over Central & East/Southeast Texas next week.We'll see...

Screenshot 2024-04-24 at 15-19-41 Models ECMWF - Pivotal Weather.png (1.12 MiB) Viewed 576 times

Screenshot 2024-04-24 at 15-24-39 Models GDPS - Pivotal Weather.png (1.09 MiB) Viewed 576 times

Screenshot 2024-04-24 at 15-24-46 Models GFS - Pivotal Weather.png (1023.98 KiB) Viewed 576 times

[Cpv17]

Models are trending weaker with ridging over Mexico & the Gulf, and are now showing more precip in SE Texas next week than earlier runs.This may cause the subtropical jet to orientate further south in the state.Allowing disturbances to move over Central & East/Southeast Texas next week.We'll see...



Screenshot 2024-04-24 at 15-19-41 Models ECMWF - Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2024-04-24 at 15-24-39 Models GDPS - Pivotal Weather.png


Screenshot 2024-04-24 at 15-24-46 Models GFS - Pivotal Weather.png

0z runs of the GFS and CMC have the rain staying well north of here.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 251152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

If you liked yesterday, you`re in luck for today. Persistent onshore
winds at the lower levels combined with an increasingly southwester-
ly flow aloft will help to maintain this warm and increasingly humid
airmass already in place across SE TX. With the potential for embed-
ded shortwave activity, ahead of the main longwave trough tracking E
from the Colorado Rockies, we could see some isolated showers pop up
across our western/northern CWA this afternoon. Rain chances will be
going up further tomorrow as the mid/upper trough finally begins its
trek into the Southern Plains...with the best POPs likely across our
northern CWA once again. This system should help to tighten the grad-
ient across the region starting today and especially tomorrow, which
will result in strengthening southerly winds and increasing moisture
levels. But, despite all of these features coming together tomorrow,
there is the matter of the strong cap already in place here. The SPC
Day 2 outlook does have the northern third of the the CWA (generally
along and north of a Columbus to Livingston line) in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms for tomorrow. This
could be mainly in response to the possibility of outflow boundaries
and/or the tail end of the more organized activity which is expected
further north of the CWA.

As for temperatures...highs today/tomorrow are going to in the lower
to mid 80s...with lows tonight/tomorrow night mostly in the lower 70s.
41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The boundary that approached the region on Friday will have
retreated back north by Saturday ending the showers and storms
threat temporarily. Saturday will be quite toasty as we see
continued moist southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly
flow aloft. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with
heat indicies in the low to mid 90s. The hot and humid conditions
will continue through at least the middle of next week. Overnight
lows will possibly be near record warmth with minimum
temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

An upper level shortwave will move into the Southern Plains on
Sunday not only pushing that boundary closer to our region, but also
reinvigorate the showers and storms along the boundary. The Bryan-
College Station area could see precipitation start as early as
sunrise Sunday with all of SE Texas getting scattered showers or
storms by the afternoon. Areas north of Conroe will likely see the
highest coverage of storms as it will be closer to the stalled
boundary - but if that boundary moves further south then that
increased coverage will follow. Wherever the stalled boundary ends
up, it will remain there through Wednesday bringing daily rain
chances.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

IFR ceilings have spread across the CWA this morning with some patchy
LIFR readings added in. Conditions should improve by late morning (or
early afternoon) for most inland locations, but terminals closer/near
the coast could see MVFR CIGs linger through the day. These lower CIG
levels should return areawide this evening...and persisting into much
of tomorrow (Fri). S/SE winds to start from 4-9kts this morning, then
increasing to 11-17kts/G20-26kts this afternoon. These gusts are like-
ly to diminish by this evening with S winds staying somewhat elevated
(in the 8-14kt range). 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The onshore flow will strengthen through the day today becoming
moderate to strong tonight through the next several days. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect this evening through Friday afternoon as
the winds increase to around 20kts with gusts to 25-30kt and wave
heights increase to 6 to 8ft. The Small Craft Advisory will likely
be extended into the weekend as the winds increase due to a
tightening pressure gradient to around 25kt with gusts to 35kt
possible. Wave heights peak to around 9 to 11ft Saturday into Sunday
morning. Conditions slowly improve late Sunday into Monday. The
persistent onshore flow will also lead to a high risk of strong rip
currents Friday and through the weekend along with elevated tides.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 71 83 72 / 10 10 40 20
Houston (IAH) 83 71 84 73 / 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 78 71 78 73 / 0 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Fowler

[Cromagnum]

Besides the one rogue thunderstorm a few weeks ago, it's been a bone dry spring here.

[Cpv17]

Besides the one rogue thunderstorm a few weeks ago, it's been a bone dry spring here.

Pretty big difference in the models right now. Euro is a soaker and the GFS and CMC are pretty much crickets.

[jasons2k]

My run felt great this morning. Humid but not muggy. Still had that hint of a chill in the air versus just being gross like a sauna.

I hope we lean to the wetter side. Otherwise it’s sprinkler time again soon.

[Cpv17]

The CMC looks good now for areas north of I-10. The GFS still has mostly everything north of us. We’ll see what the Euro says next.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251957
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
257 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

If you`ve been outside this afternoon, then I`m sure you`ve noticed
that it`s a bit breezy out there. Latest surface analysis shows
surface low pressure beginning to develop on the lee side of the
Rockies, and the 12Z UA obs plot shows a LLJ developing out in
Central Texas earlier this morning. This LLJ will steadily slide
eastward and will make it over the Brazos Valley by later this
afternoon. It`ll start out as 25-35 kts this afternoon, then
increasing to 35-45 kts by tonight. This combined with the
tightening pressure gradient from the developing surface low will
lead to elevated winds prevailing throughout the short term period.
The main ridge axis will shift off to the east later this afternoon
as an upper level trough transitions from the Four Corners region to
the Central Plains. Embedded shortwaves within the ridge will
attempt to develop some isolated showers, but it`ll have a VERY
tough time doing so with a capping inversion aloft persisting. The
best chances of this occuring will be west of I-45 through this
afternoon. High temperatures today will reach the low to mid 80s.
Still expecting low temperatures tonight to drop into the low 70s
due to increasing low-level clouds and elevated winds persisting.

Southwesterly flow aloft is firmly established by Friday as the
upper level trough evolves to have an embedded upper level low.
Surface low pressure drifts northeastward on Friday causing the
associated frontal boundary to become quasi-stationary well to our
west. With increasing PVA and elevated PW values in the 1.4"-1.7"
range north of I-10 (90th percentile: ~1.61"), some showers/storms
are possible to develop along the tail-end of a convective line
advancing ahead of the front. Anything along this line will have to
battle a capping inversion to survive, but this cap is weaker over
the Brazos Valley. There is plenty of instability in place along
with steep 700-500mb lapse rates, so if anything manages to survive
long enough in our area there is potential for a storm or two to
maintain/become strong to severe. As a result, there is a marginal
risk of severe weather (level 1 out of 5) for northern portions of
the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods for Friday. With PW values exceeding
the 90th percentile, there is also a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall (level 1 out of 4) on Friday as well for portions of the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods. This is all under the assumption that
storms can maintain themselves long enough in at least a slightly
capped environment...which is why it`s a marginal risk. As far as
temperatures go, expect another day with high temperatures in the
low to mid 80s with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. This
will be another night where we may approach record high minimum
temperatures in some spots.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

With a weak surface boundary continuing to sit just to our north
(and thereby keeping rainfall out of the area for the time being),
the main story of Saturday will be the potential for some of the
warmest conditions we`ve seen across the area in many months. Robust
onshore flow will provide both steady WAA and low-level moisture
transport, helping to drive a further increase in high temperatures
to the mid/upper 80s while dew points sit just above 70. Resultant
WBGT values will reach around 80, which is mitigated somewhat by
elevated cloud cover and strong winds brought on by a very tight
pressure gradient given a deep surface low to the NE. Many locations
may in fact reach Wind Advisory criteria during the day on Saturday,
with winds reaching around 25 mph with gusts at times reaching in
excess of 30 mph.

Rainfall chances increase on Sunday as a midlevel low pushes into
the Central Plains while the surface boundary drifts back to the
south. Scattered showers and storms will become more widespread by
the afternoon, and while there remains a limited chance of a
stronger storm, severe weather chances remain best well to the north
of the area. Associated widespread cloud cover will diminish highs
slightly with most values in the low/mid 80s. Overnight lows remain
in the lower 70s through the duration of the weekend.

The weak boundary will remain stalled over the area through mid-
week, with passing shortwaves bringing a chance of showers and
storms each day through at least Wednesday. Highs should generally
remain in the mid 80s by this time with lows in the lower 70s.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings will prevail throughout the day
with greater potential for lingering MVFR ceilings for southern
sites. Southeasterly winds will be on the gusty side as well with
sustained winds around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20-25 knots
lasting into the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings filter to back in
for all area sites in the early evening hours. The elevated winds
overnight is expected to inhibit fog development. MVFR ceilings
will linger into Friday afternoon as southerly winds become even
gustier with sustained winds approaching 20 knots and gusts near
25-30 knots. There is potential for shower development during the
late morning hours around CLL on Friday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Elevated winds will build further heading into the weekend, with
sustained winds increasing from around 20 knots tonight to up to 25-
30 knots on Saturday. As this occurs, seas may reach as high as 10
feet at times, and an extended Small Craft Advisory is likely to be
required with conditions offshore remaining poor into the early part
of next week. Rainfall chances return by late Sunday, becoming more
isolated on Monday. Winds and seas will both diminish heading into
the early part of next week, remaining generally out of the
southeast.

Cady

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Only one River Flood Warning remains in effect along the Trinity
River. The Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) remains in minor
flood stage and is forecast to crest some time today. This site is
forecast to remain in minor flood stage through Monday. The Trinity
River at Riverside (RVRT2) and at Liberty (LBYT2) will remain in
action stage until further notice. Additional rounds of rainfall are
expected over the next week or so with the highest totals occuring
to the northeast of Southeast Texas. With some of the locally heavy
rainfall expected to occur along the Upper Trinity River, the
subsequent runoff may lead to an even longer period of action stage
to minor river flooding along this basin.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 83 72 87 / 10 40 10 10
Houston (IAH) 72 84 73 86 / 0 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 79 73 81 / 0 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday evening for
GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cady

[don]

12Z EURO VS 12Z GFS

Screenshot 2024-04-25 at 15-52-28 Models ECMWF - Pivotal Weather.png (1.13 MiB) Viewed 380 times

Screenshot 2024-04-25 at 15-52-38 Models GFS - Pivotal Weather.png (997.38 KiB) Viewed 380 times

[DoctorMu]

Models are trending weaker with ridging over Mexico & the Gulf, and are now showing more precip in SE Texas next week than earlier runs.This may cause the subtropical jet to orientate further south in the state.Allowing disturbances to move over Central & East/Southeast Texas next week.We'll see...



Screenshot 2024-04-24 at 15-19-41 Models ECMWF - Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2024-04-24 at 15-24-39 Models GDPS - Pivotal Weather.png


Screenshot 2024-04-24 at 15-24-46 Models GFS - Pivotal Weather.png

I'll take a repeat of last week. My daughter finally understands why I want clouds all summer.

[Ptarmigan]

Models are trending weaker with ridging over Mexico & the Gulf, and are now showing more precip in SE Texas next week than earlier runs.This may cause the subtropical jet to orientate further south in the state.Allowing disturbances to move over Central & East/Southeast Texas next week.We'll see...



Screenshot 2024-04-24 at 15-19-41 Models ECMWF - Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2024-04-24 at 15-24-39 Models GDPS - Pivotal Weather.png


Screenshot 2024-04-24 at 15-24-46 Models GFS - Pivotal Weather.png

Let's hope so.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 261140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The start of a more active pattern for SE TX looks to start today as
the first in a series of longwave troughs moves quickly E across the
Southern and Central Plains these next several days. There will be a
potential for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall with these
systems, but probably not for today.

Strong S/SE low-level winds are continuing to feed to warm/humid air
mass over SE TX this morning and with the arrival/passage of a short
wave (from the W/SW) late this morning, scattered activity should be
on the rise across the Brazos Valley east to the Piney Woods through
this afternoon. Progs then track a second short-wave across the CWA,
with development further south, across the central/southern portions
of the CWA during the late afternoon/early evening. These shortwaves
along with daytime heating and slightly deeper moisture (PWs aoa 1.4
to 1.8 inches) will help to fuel showers/storms...but there is still
a matter of the strong/persistent cap. And so, no major changes have
been made with the SPC Outlook for today, with only the far northern
reaches of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thun-
derstorms (generally from Bryan/College Station to Crockett). WPC is
also keeping these same locations in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
for excessive rainfall for today.

Another surface low deepening around the Panhandles will help tighten
the gradient once again tomorrow. This could lead to strong and gusty
winds over much of the CWA on Sat. A Wind Advisory may be needed. And
barring any other shortwaves sneaking in from the W/SW, Sat should be
a bit quieter, but not completely POP-free. Lingering boundaries, day
time heating and strong WAA could lead to some pop-up showers/isolat-
ed storms through the day. As for temperatures, abundant clouds, rain
chances will keep highs mainly in the lower 80s today...and perhaps a
bit higher tomorrow in the mid 80s. Lows will be in the lower 70s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Showers and storms will get reinvigorated across SE Texas on Sunday
as the stalled boundary to the north pushes closer to our region.
Meanwhile, an upper level low will be swinging through the Southern
Plains providing better dynamics for thunderstorm development -
though the best dynamics will be north of the region towards the Red
River Valley. The showers and storms will begin as early as sunrise
Sunday, but will be more likely Sunday afternoon into the evening
hours with lingering showers possible into Sunday night. Areas
closer to the stalled boundary will have the highest coverage of
storms, which for right now is looking for areas generally north of
Conroe. The vast majority of the storms will be weak, there may be
an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm on Sunday. SPC includes
this area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
on Sunday, and WPC has areas north of Huntsville in a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 4) with areas down to around I-10 in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall due to locally heavy rainfall
combined with saturated soils.

The upper level low that helped develop the storms on Sunday will
continue on east by Monday, but the boundary will remain stalled out
near SE Texas through the majority of next week. This will lead
partly to mostly cloudy skies and daily rain chances. Temperatures
will remain on the warm side through the long term as will with high
temperatures in the mid 80s and low temperatures in the low to mid
70s. Afternoon max heat indicies will be in the low to mid 90s
through midweek next week as well.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Widespread MVFR ceilings will be mixing by late morning/early after-
noon for most terminals north of the Houston metro...with the lower
(still MVFR) ceilings likely lingering closer to the coast. The pas-
sage of shortwaves (from the W/SW) will bring scattered development
from early afternoon into the early evening hours. Chances for TSRA
remain in the picture for this afternoon, but with uncertaity as to
where the best locations will be, did opt to keep this as a mention
of VCSH for now. Otherwise, the main forecast issue looks to be the
strong gusty S/SE winds today (12-18kts/G22-27kts) and likely again
for tomorrow. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Moderate to strong onshore winds and elevated seas will continue
through the weekend. While there will be a brief lull in the winds
this afternoon to around 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt, the winds will
pick back up this evening to around 20 to 30kt with gusts to 35kt
possible through Sunday morning. The Small Craft Advisory for the
Gulf Waters has been extended through Sunday morning. Small Craft
should exercise caution today in the Bays, with the Bays being added
into the SCA this evening and continues through Sunday morning as
well. Bay waters will be very choppy to rough this weekend with seas
in the Gulf Waters up to around 8-11ft. The strong, persistent
onshore flow will result in a high risk of strong rip currents and
elevated tides through the weekend. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday into Monday as an upper level
low swings through the region. While the onshore flow will persist
through next week, conditions will gradually improve late Sunday
through Monday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 72 84 72 / 30 10 20 20
Houston (IAH) 84 74 84 73 / 30 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 79 73 79 73 / 20 20 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday
for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ350-355-370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Fowler

[DoctorMu]

The late fall and winter had more sunny day, and more normal temps. We had been seeing warmer falls and cool Februaries. This year we had a cool January in CLL but more sunny days overall yet more rain. The Spring has had more days of socked in with clouds, including getting eclipsed.

Consistent with an El Niño shifting to a La Niña.

[jasons2k]

Those storms to the north sure have a lot of rotation. Don’t want any part of that! Could use some rain though.

[tireman4]

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

CIGS should continue to scatter & lift this afternoon, with most
locations expected to reach VFR levels. MVFR CIGS may linger in
areas south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon. Isolated showers
could develop in these areas too, through one or two isolated
stronger storms cannot be completely ruled out. Isolated showers
will also be possible further north (near KCLL and KUTS) as well,
with a higher possibility of stronger thunderstorms for these
locations. Southeasterly winds of 10-20 knots with gusts of 25-35
knots will be possible throughout the day, relaxing slightly this
evening as MVFR CIGS fill back in from the coastline. MVFR
conditions persist overnight into Saturday morning, with CIGS
improving heading into the afternoon.

[jasons2k]

Cap is holding strong so far.