Re: March 2024
Posted: Fri Mar 15, 2024 8:37 am
Radar was looking good but then poof. Gotta wait till this evening I guess.
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Yep. As predicted today has been a bust so far with storms remaining north and east of us. This evening or Sunday are the best chance now of rain..
Mesoscale Discussion 0259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Areas affected...Portions of south-central and southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 151728Z - 152000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing very large hail (2+
inch) and severe winds are expected across portions of south-central
and southeast Texas this afternoon. A watch will likely be issued in
the next couple hours for parts of the area.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and visible satellite
imagery indicate an east/west-oriented outflow-modified cold front
gradually stalling across parts of south-central into southeast TX
this afternoon. Given that much of this area is on the backside of a
departing shortwave trough moving east-northeastward across east TX,
overall coverage of storms is a bit uncertain. Nevertheless, as the
frontal circulation intersects a gradually deepening moist layer
amid pockets of diurnal heating, at least isolated to widely
scattered storm development is expected this afternoon -- possibly
aided by weak low-level warm advection atop the frontal surface/cold
pool. An additional focus for storm development will be over the
southern portion of the Edwards Plateau, where the front intersect
the higher terrain amid upslope flow enhancements.
The latest ACARS soundings from San Antonio TX sampled steep
midlevel lapse rates (near 8 C/km) associated with an EML atop a
gradually deepening moist layer extending through 1 km AGL.
Continued diurnal heating of this moist layer should contribute to
moderate/strong instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). In addition, a
belt of 40-50 kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow above veering
low-level flow will yield 40-50 kt effective shear. This will
support the development of initially semi-discrete supercell
clusters, capable of producing very large hail (some greater than
baseball-sized), along with locally severe winds. While a tornado or
two cannot be entirely ruled out with these storms, low-level shear
will not be particularly strong, and the development of strong cold
pools could reduce the risk to an extent. With time, localized
upscale growth into several organized clusters is possible, with an
increasing wind risk and continued large hail threat with
east-southeastward extent.
..Weinman/Goss.. 03/15/2024
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
255 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Washington County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 330 PM CDT.
* At 255 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bellville,
moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Hempstead, Bellville, Pine Island, and Monaville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
LAT...LON 2986 9641 2999 9645 3017 9606 2989 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 256DEG 21KT 2996 9635
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH