Wx Infinity Forums

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 3:56 pm

don wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 3:52 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:41 am

Nah. Rain chances look good. Everyone should get 1-3” with isolated areas getting more.

Yep the rain is coming back.Stay tuned there could be some localized street flooding starting this weekend.


gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_14.png

I know a lot of people are saying that this spring is going to be dry, but I really don't see this spring being anywhere close to a repeat of last season. The subtropical jet is a lot more active this season and further south which is more typical with El Nino seasons. This displacement results with more dynamic forcing also being placed further south. The correlation between precip and a decaying El Nino in spring is very strong. Last spring was La Nina so there was reason to believe that a dry spring was plausible.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 6:35 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 3:56 pm

don wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 3:52 pm

Yep the rain is coming back.Stay tuned there could be some localized street flooding starting this weekend.


gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_14.png

I know a lot of people are saying that this spring is going to be dry, but I really don't see this spring being anywhere close to a repeat of last season. The subtropical jet is a lot more active this season and further south which is more typical with El Nino seasons. This displacement results with more dynamic forcing also being placed further south. The correlation between precip and a decaying El Nino in spring is very strong. Last spring was La Nina so there was reason to believe that a dry spring was plausible.

I wish I could say I agree but I just don't see it. I think the persistent drought in Mexico will continue to worsen and contribute to capping issues for SC and SE Texas.

In short, this is the Mexican drought map coming out of an El Nino:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/nadm/hom ... ea.aspx?MX

This is not conducive for a wet Texas pattern combined with a negative PDO.

I hope I am wrong but we'll know come June 1.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:36 pm Also to add - just because get a dousing or two doesn't negate an overall dry spring. I'm talking about the overall pattern for the season. I think we're going to come up short.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 7:16 am And here we go. NWS cut rain chances for me in half on Friday and Saturday. Down to 30-40% from 60-70%.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:55 pm HRRR has a big fat Lucy for us with both the front and coast low.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:55 pm HRRR has a big fat Lucy for us with both the front and coast low.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 5:32 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Mar 14, 2024 2:55 pm HRRR has a big fat Lucy for us with both the front and coast low.