November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

[srainhoutx]

Enjoy the warmer weather as it will be rather short lived. A robust 'cold' Pacific storm will swing through as we end the month of November. Good to see our folks getting evolved as we close out the year. I suspect the 'night crew' will be chiming in...

[redneckweather]

Man alive was it a cold hunt this morning! I pulled up to my ranch gate in Madison County at 5:30 and my truck read 22 freakin degrees! I had my little buddy propane heater in my stand with me and it just wasn't quite enough to take the edge off. I loved it!

[sambucol]

Enjoy the warmer weather as it will be rather short lived. A robust 'cold' Pacific storm will swing through as we end the month of November. Good to see our folks getting evolved as we close out the year. I suspect the 'night crew' will be chiming in...

What kind of temps are we looking at? Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

Upper to mid 30's. Perhaps a 30 in the 'colder spots' would be my guess.

[sambucol]

Upper to mid 30's. Perhaps a 30 in the 'colder spots' would be my guess.

For highs???

[srainhoutx]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
PART OF CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS TODAY
WILL SHIFT EWD MONDAY INTO THE CENTRAL STATES WITH THE TROUGH
EXPANDING/AMPLIFYING SWD OVER TX AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD
TOWARD THIS REGION FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE...A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LOW WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE THE SRN
EXTENT SPREADS SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. THIS EXPANSIVE COLD
FRONT WILL INITIALLY OVERTAKE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE IN THE
OZARKS REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVE OFF THE TX COAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE DRY LINE WILL SPREAD EWD REACHING ERN
OK/TX BY AROUND NOON MONDAY...AND THEN PROGRESS E TOWARD THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND SSWWD THROUGH
THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...SERN LA TO THE WRN EXTENT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS E TX/LA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL
MS/AL MONDAY NIGHT.

...E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 2 /12Z MON-12Z TUE/ HAS BEEN EXPANDED
WWD TO INCLUDE PART OF E TX...AND NWD TO INCLUDE THE REST OF LA...
EXTREME SRN AR AND MORE OF CENTRAL MS/SWRN AL.

SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
MOISTURE RETURN /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/ SPREADING
INLAND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER E TX AND MUCH OF LA INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.5 C PER
KM/...THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-800 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS REGION
WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH LITTLE HEIGHT
FALLS EXPECTED THROUGH 30/00Z...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
ADVANCING DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT ALONG WITH WAA WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS /50+ KT/ THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND 30-45 KT SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /50+ KT/. THE LACK OF STRONGER
MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING THROUGH 30/00Z SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL STORMS
SHOULD BE FOCUSED MORE SO ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WITH THE
DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTING LINE SEGMENTS
AND SOME SUPERCELLS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS THREAT COULD DEVELOP BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING OVER E TX AND ADJACENT LA WITH THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN LA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

WHILE THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE
EARLY PART OF MONDAY EVENING...THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARD
CENTRAL TX SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN LATE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE INLAND INTRUSION OF
THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL AID IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS INTO THE SRN HALF OF MS AND SWRN AL OVERNIGHT.
FURTHER INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL WINDS ATOP THE LLJ WILL SUPPORT STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR A
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TORNADO THREAT...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 11/28/2010

[Ptarmigan]

We may see severe weather outbreak tomorrow.

[weatherguy425]

Followed by winter precip??

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 5&map.y=30

[helloitsb]

Followed by winter precip??

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 5&map.y=30

Thats always neat to see even if it a little to north

[srainhoutx]

Dallas/Ft Worth:

MONDAY NIGHT...THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY MOVE THRU
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS IT PUSHES EAST THRU THE
REGION IT WILL SEND MORE OF A TRUE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THRU NORTH
TX. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MODELS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
SATURATE THE MID TO UPPER LVLS OF THE TROPOSPHERE FROM 06Z TO 12Z
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SATURATION SEEMS TO BE
DUE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AROUND THE H600 LEVEL. A CROSS
SECTION THRU NORTH TX ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO
SHOW THIS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OCCURS WITHIN A NARROW
SLOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS LOCATED NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER THE GOMEX AND SLOPES UP THRU THE H700 TO H550 LAYER OVER
NORTH TX FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. ABOVE THIS AXIS OF
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 100 TO 150 MB
THICK LAYER HAVING LOW STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT
THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL BRING 150 MB OR SO OF STRONG LIFT OVER NORTH TX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH AT LEAST SOME OF THIS LIFT OCCURRING
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS LAYER WILL BE
AN EFFICIENT PRODUCER OF ICE CRYSTALS FOR A FEW HRS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE SUB H700 LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
TO LOOK DRY AND DOMINATED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE.
WITH THIS IN MIND WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF THE
MID LVL CLOUD DECK TO EVAPORATE/SUBLIMATE BEFORE REACHING THE SFC
MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS NOT AS DRY AS
FORECAST IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME SPRINKLES OF FLURRIES TO
REACH THE SFC MONDAY NIGHT.

[Wx_Watcher2011]

The current Day 2 Outlook does look interesting to say the least, possibly our best chances for storms we have seen in some time. Been watching the SPC mesoanalysis data the last few hours, temps have gone up slightly, but more notable is the moisture return (low 60s dewpoints just starting to move inland now). Too bad the best upper support seems like it will be further north/east tomorrow...

[srainhoutx]

Appears that we will be capped and only those areas to our E will have a shot at severe weather. We'll see what the SPC offers later this morning.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST MON NOV 29 2010

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX INTO THE LWR MS
VLY/CNTRL GULF CST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG/BROAD TROUGH NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN/RCKYS WILL SHIFT E ACROSS
THE PLNS/UPR MS VLY THIS PERIOD AS PATTERN FURTHER AMPLIFIES WITH
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND E CST. LEAD SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE NOW OVER KS SHOULD CONTINUE NNE INTO MN LATER TODAY...WHILE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NRN AZ CONTINUES ESE INTO W TX THIS
EVE...AND TURNS NE ACROSS AR/MO EARLY TUE.

AT THE SFC...LOW NOW OVER SRN NEB /ATTENDANT TO LEAD UPR IMPULSE/
WILL TRACK NE INTO WI BY TONIGHT AS PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW
FROM THE LOW ACCELERATES E/SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE E ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY EARLY TUE AS WARM FRONT NOW
EXTENDING FROM SE TX INTO THE N CNTRL GULF ADVANCES N INTO CNTRL
PORTIONS OF MS/AL. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENT VWP DATA AND
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST THAT A LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS LIKELY WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY OVER E TX AND LA. THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS THE
COLD FRONT AND WARM FRONT...LIKELY WILL SERVE TO FOCUS STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TUE OVER THE LWR MS
VLY/CNTRL GULF CST STATES.

...E TX INTO LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NNE AHEAD OF PACIFIC COLD FRONT
TODAY...WITH PW EXPECTED TO BE AOA 1.5 INCHES AS FAR NW AS ERN
AR/NRN MS AND CNTRL AL BY THIS EVE. LOW LVL ESELY FLOW OUT OF E CST
SFC RIDGE WILL...HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT RETARD SFC MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION OVER NRN MS AND CNTRL/NRN AL. NEVERTHELESS...
CURRENT TRENDS/SFC DATA SUGGEST THAT SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F
SHOULD REACH N INTO SRN AR AND WRN/NRN MS BY LATE THIS AFTN...WITH
THE 65 ISODROSOTHERM CONTINUING NE INTO NRN AL/CNTRL GA BY 12Z TUE.

ELEVATED TSTMS AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT LIKELY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND MOVE/DEVELOP NNEWD FROM ERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX INTO MO
AND THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT.

FARTHER SE...SFC HEATING...MOISTURE INFLOW...AND STRENGTHENING
CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A SEPARATE AREA OF
VIGOROUS SFC-BASED STORMS BY LATE THIS AFTN FROM WRN/CNTRL LA NNE
INTO ERN AR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING
GENERALLY E INTO SE LA...MS AND AL TONIGHT/EARLY TUE.

ALTHOUGH NNE MOTION OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE WILL TAKE BAND OF STRONGEST
LOW LVL FLOW NWD INTO THE TN/OH VLY...AMPLE LOW LVL SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE LWR MS
VLY/CNTRL GULF CST STATES...WHERE 40-45 KT SSWLY 850 MB FLOW WILL
BOOST SRH TO AROUND 300 M2/S2. COUPLED WITH 60 KT SWLY MID LVL FLOW
ON SERN FRINGE OF MAIN UPR JET...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR BROKEN QLCS STRUCTURES WITH EMBEDDED
SUSTAINED STORMS. THESE MAY YIELD A FEW TORNADOES. GIVEN
SUPPORTIVE STORM-SCALE ENVIRONMENT...A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

STRONG SSWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF WHAT LIKELY WILL BECOME A
SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE SW-NE ORIENTED QLCS OVER MS/AL LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY TUE. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN THE QLCS...AND THE OTHER
STORMS THAT MAY FORM IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN/EXTEND THE THREAT FOR
ISOLD TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND EWD INTO AL AND PERHAPS THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH 12Z TUE.

..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL.. 11/29/2010

[srainhoutx]

[svrwx0503]

Pretty nasty weather across Mississippi this evening. Yazoo City just got hit by another tornado about 10min ago. Radar indicated over 100kts of gate to gate shear with the circulation as it approached the city from the southwest. Still waiting for reports on the magnitude of the damage, I really hope it is minimal.

[Andrew]

Pretty nasty weather across Mississippi this evening. Yazoo City just got hit by another tornado about 10min ago. Radar indicated over 100kts of gate to gate shear with the circulation as it approached the city from the southwest. Still waiting for reports on the magnitude of the damage, I really hope it is minimal.

Yea this is their second big one in a short period of time. Not good at all.

[djjordan]

http://www.wapt.com/video/4906971/detail.html

Yazoo City got pummeled again ...... Downtown has been closed off .... reports of extensive damage .... Watching live streaming on WAPT.com .... click on the link.

[Ptarmigan]

A tornado outbreak unfolding in Mississippi.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
927 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TORNADO          YAZOO CITY              32.86N 90.41W
11/29/2010                   YAZOO              MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            DAMAGE TO THE COURTHOUSE ROOF IN DOWNTOWN AND A LARGE
            TREE DOWN NEXT TO THE COURTHOUSE. WIDESPREAD DEBRIS IN
            THE AREA.

[srainhoutx]

I'm seeing some reports of sleet this morning up around the Lake Livingston area and NE TX as the trough and Upper Air disturbance moves away.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
616 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

.UPDATE...

TO INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SLEET AND LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MORE
THAN ONE REPORT OF LIGHT...MELTY SLEET. TWEAKED SKY AND POP/WX.